4:10 Ayr

The KTB Fit ranking

1. 1Bollin Matilda KTB Selection66/100

   Form 42212- · Donald Whillans · Murray Dodd(5)

   Bollin Matilda is a useful performer who has been consistent this season with two wins and a string of placings from her last five starts. She has won over today's trip but her record at Ayr is modest with no victories from six runs here. The trainer has a 15% strike rate at the track which is above his standard figure while the jockey is still seeking his first Ayr success from five rides. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, she should be well placed to take a share of the pace in what is set to be a genuinely run race. Her official rating stands at 95 and recent form of 42212- underlines her solid level of performance.

2. 2Ck O'Mara63/100

   Form 54164- · R. Mike Smith · Ben Smith(7)

   Family: the dam has had 4 other runners, none of them a winner.

   Ck O'Mara is a fair performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from five runs here. The yard's 8% strike rate at Ayr is above their record elsewhere while the jockey's 10% strike rate at the course sits in line with his wider figure. The dam has produced four other runners without a winner between them and with only seven career starts the going question remains open as he has no runs on good to soft. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what should be a strong-run contest.

3. 3Better Be Definite62/100

   Form /441P- · N. W. Alexander · Bruce Lynn

   Better Be Definite is a useful performer who has won two of three starts at this trip and is 2-3 at Ayr overall. He steps up in distance today having last run over 2m7½f, with a placed effort from five starts on good to soft showing he handles the ground without winning on it. Trainer and jockey both record above their personal averages at Ayr, with respective strike rates of 13% and 14% at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be aiming to come with a late run once the prominent horses have done their work.

4. 4Run Baby Run58/100

   Form P8078- · R. Mike Smith · Toby Wynne

   Run Baby Run is a modest performer who has struggled at this track, finishing no better than seventh from four starts with two pulled-ups. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 2m4f, which asks a fresh question. The trainer records an 8% strike rate at Ayr from 1,044 runs, above their 6% elsewhere, while jockey Toby Wynne has a 33% strike rate here from nine rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he drops in class from an official rating of 67 but has plenty to prove on course form.

5. 5Maura Jeanne57/100

   Form 2526-5 · Ian Duncan · Jack Power(5)

   Maura Jeanne is a useful performer with a solid record here, including a win from five runs at Ayr. She has shown consistent form this year with figures of 2526-5 and holds an official rating of 92, though she drops back from 3m2½f to a trip where she has one win from twelve starts. The yard records an 8% strike rate at Ayr from 331 runs while the jockey is on 13% from 30 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, she has one win from ten starts on good to soft.

6. 6Melbourne Ghost55/100

   Form 7057- · Donald Whillans · Craig Nichol

   Family: full brother to The Niffler (3 wins from 25 runs). The dam has had 2 other runners, 2 of them winners.

   Melbourne Ghost is a fair performer on his official rating of 85 but has shown little in four starts to date and was well beaten on his only previous visit to Ayr. He steps up markedly in trip today as a lightly raced 5-year-old with a full brother to The Niffler in the pedigree.

7. 7Coventry48/100

   Form 367-17 · Lisa Harrison · Peter Kavanagh

   Coventry is a fair handicapper who has shown enough at this track to be taken seriously, finishing third here on his penultimate start. He has already placed at today's trip without winning, though he steps up from 2m4f today and has failed to place in two runs on good to soft ground.

8. 8Anamanda47/100

   Form 5542-0 · N. W. Alexander · Dominic Hislop(7)

   Anamanda is a fair handicapper who has been placed on four of her seven starts at this trip and four times from eight runs on good to soft ground. She has shown consistent placed form at Ayr without winning, including a second here last season, though her most recent run was poor.

9. 9Secret Secret46/100

   Form 453536 · James Moffatt · Leah Noreci(7)

   Secret Secret is a useful performer who has been consistent without winning of late, placing three times from his last six starts. He handles good to soft ground with two wins and four places from eight runs, though he is yet to score in four attempts at this trip.

10. 10Junior des Mottes44/100

    Form P1132- · Leonard Kerr · Derek Fox

    Junior des Mottes is a fair performer who arrives in solid form having won two of his last four starts and finished second on his most recent outing. He steps up to this longer trip for the first time having been unsuccessful in two previous attempts at the distance and has shown little on his only run on good to soft ground.

11. 11Bray Dale41/100

    Form 5P8P-5 · Catch Bissett · Patrick Wadge

    Bray Dale is a modest performer who has run eight times at Ayr without winning, managing a best of fifth on this track. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 2m, with only one run on good to soft going that produced no win or place.

12. 12Reagrove Lord35/100

    Form 899/44 · George Bewley · Jonathon Bewley

    Reagrove Lord is a modest performer who has shown a bit more since returning from a long absence, finishing fourth in both starts this year. He has placed over this trip and was second on his only visit to Ayr, but he is 0-4 on good to soft ground and has not won for a long time.