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Jockey profile

Aaron Mackay

89 rides in the lifetime window · 63 individual horses
As at 13 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Nov 2022 100% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
7–89
Wins / Runs
7.9%
Strike rate
n=89
12 (14%)
Placed
1.61
Fair A/E
n=89 · 1.31 incl. margin
+15.83
£1 level stake
n=89 at SP · +17.8%
£73,839
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB at a glance Claiming: 8.5%

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
6.3%−1.6
n=63 · A/E 1.31 · £1 −5.50
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
42.9%+35.0
n=7 · A/E 3.32 · £1 +4.83
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−7.9
n=29 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −29.00
When favourite
100%
n=3 · A/E 4.82 · £1 +8.83
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
8.5%+0.6
n=82 · A/E 1.78 · £1 +22.83
Big fields · 14+ runners
10.5%+2.6
n=38 · A/E 2.32 · £1 +19.33

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Standard (AW) going 2.4% vs 7.9% · n=41
Over 1m – 1m1f 12.9% vs 7.9% · n=31
On first rides for the horse 6.3% vs 7.9% · n=63 · A/E 1.31
When claiming 8.5% vs 7.9% · n=82 · A/E 1.78
In Flat races 7.9% vs 7.9% · n=89 · A/E 1.61
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 41 1 2.4% −7.00
Good to Soft 15 2 13.3% −3.00
Good 15 2 13.3% −6.17
Soft 15 2 13.3% +35.00
Heavy 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly (FR) 14 1 7.1% +30.00
Lingfield (AW) 8 0 0% −8.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 7 1 14.3% +27.00
Dundalk (AW) 7 0 0% −7.00
Kempton (AW) 6 0 0% −6.00
Longchamp (FR) 5 0 0% −5.00
Killarney 5 2 40% +7.00
Saint-Cloud (FR) 4 1 25% +0.50
Naas 4 0 0% −4.00
Deauville (FR) 3 0 0% −3.00
Curragh 3 0 0% −3.00
Limerick 3 0 0% −3.00
Southwell (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00
Tipperary 2 0 0% −2.00
Navan 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 18 1 5.6% +16.00
Class 5 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 4 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 3 3 100% 4.82 +8.83
2nd–3rd fav 6 1 16.7% 1.04 +0.00
4th–6th fav 18 1 5.6% 0.91 −9.00
7th+ in betting 62 2 3.2% 1.21 +16.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Cap D'antibes (IRE) 5 0 0 29 Jun 20
Sheila's Empire (IRE) 5 0 1 10 Jan 19
Sensual Scent (IRE) 4 0 0 20 Jun 20
Warrior Display (IRE) 4 1 1 16 Feb 19
Get Set (IRE) 3 1 1 18 Jul 21
High Altitude (IRE) 3 2 2 17 Sep 19
Zouch (GB) 3 0 0 20 Nov 18
Vincenco (FR) 2 0 0 2 Nov 22
Akamu (FR) 2 0 0 28 May 22
Jazzman Fleury (FR) 2 0 0 6 May 22
Marlborough Sounds (GB) 2 1 1 24 Aug 19
Pleasant Gesture (IRE) 2 0 0 6 Feb 19
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 63 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
11001725003811000
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
TrainerRWSR£1
J S Moore 20 1 5% +14.00
John Joseph Murphy 20 3 15% −3.67
N Clement 7 1 14.3% −2.50
Andrew Hollinshead 5 1 20% +39.00
Mme F Chenu 3 0 0% −3.00
Tim Donworth 2 0 0% −2.00
Ian O'Connor 2 1 50% +4.00
Marian Falk Weissmeier 2 0 0% −2.00
Buyl & De Clercq 2 0 0% −2.00
Fabian Xaver Weissmeier 1 0 0% −1.00
Clare Ellam 1 0 0% −1.00
Gregoire Juillet 1 0 0% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→
7
Archived wins
£73,839
Prize money
2019
Best season · 5 wins
Hepzibah (FR) — Prix de Houdan (Claimer) (3yo) (Turf) Saint-Cloud (FR) · Apr 2021
£10,268
Get Set (IRE) — Prix de Thiverny (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf) Chantilly (FR) · May 2021
£9,375
Marlborough Sounds (GB) — ML Lynch Apprentice Handicap Killarney · Aug 2019
£6,797
Notable horses
High Altitude (IRE) Warrior Display (IRE) Get Set (IRE) Marlborough Sounds (GB) Hepzibah (FR) Jazz Lady (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Society Rock (IRE) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 10.3% of 2,837 runs since 2017 (175 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.4% from 233.
Dandy Man (IRE) 16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,990 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 171.
Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 10.3% of 11,888 runs since 2010 (949 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 305.
Kyllachy (GB) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.
French Navy (GB) 33.3% · 1–3
Progeny have won 10.3% of 778 runs since 2019 (68 horses).
Papal Bull (GB) 66.7% · 2–3
Progeny have won 7.4% of 1,585 runs since 2012 (131 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 3.5% from 173. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 3.3% from 122.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 89 · newest first

The latest 50 of 89 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 24 September 2018 to 2 November 2022.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
02 Nov 22 Chantilly (FR) Vincenco (FR)T: Buyl & De Clercq Prix de la Chapelle Saint-Pierre (Maiden) (3yo) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)8f · Standard · 17 ran 17th 116/1
28 May 22 Moulins (FR) Akamu (FR)T: Tim Donworth Grand Prix de Moulins (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf)7f · Soft · 13 ran 4th 41/1
22 May 22 Le Croise-Laroche (FR) Ace Card (IRE)T: J-M Beguigne Prix de Mons (Claimer) (4yo+) (Apprentice & Young Jockeys) (Turf)9f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 4th 19/5
06 May 22 Chantilly (FR) Jazzman Fleury (FR)T: Mme F Chenu Prix du Mont Pagnotte (Conditions) (3yo Colts & Geldings) (Turf)10f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 6th 46/1
28 Apr 22 Longchamp (FR) Incognito Fleury (FR)T: Mme F Chenu Prix de l'Hotel de Bruxelles (Conditions) (4yo) (Moyenne Course) (Turf)8f · Good · 7 ran UR 42/1
28 Apr 22 Longchamp (FR) Jazzman Fleury (FR)T: Mme F Chenu Prix de Ferrieres (Conditions) (3yo) (Moyenne Course) (Turf)11f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 5th 35/1
20 Apr 22 Chantilly (FR) Blue Link (FR)T: Buyl & De Clercq Prix du Chemin des Poissonniers (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf)11f · Good · 15 ran 8th 20/1
18 Feb 22 Chantilly (FR) Minnehaha (FR)T: A Schouteet Prix du Chemin de Paris (Handicap) (5yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)7f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 52/1
12 Feb 22 Chantilly (FR) Dandy Cool (FR)T: Gregoire Juillet Prix de la Route des Suisses (Maiden) (4yo) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)10.5f · Standard · 16 ran 6th 35/1
12 Feb 22 Chantilly (FR) Vincenco (FR)T: Joeri Goossens Prix du Pic Hardy (Maiden) (3yo Colts & Geldings) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)8f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 101/1
14 Jan 22 Deauville (FR) Akamu (FR)T: Tim Donworth Prix du Phare (Claimer) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)6.5f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 21/1
10 Dec 21 Deauville (FR) Galop Chop (FR)T: Marian Falk Weissmeier Prix du Zenith d'Amiens (Claimer) (3yo) (Apprentice & Young Jockeys) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)7.5f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 16/1
30 Nov 21 Deauville (FR) Kickandwin (FR)T: Fabian Xaver Weissmeier Prix du Chalet Mozin (Claimer) (3yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)7.5f · Standard · 15 ran 12th 54/1
27 Oct 21 Chantilly (FR) Dancing Star (FR)T: Francois Monfort Prix du Parc A Moutons (Handicap) (3yo) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)9.5f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 34/1
29 Sep 21 Chantilly (FR) La Tour Des Reves (FR)T: N Clement Prix de la Forterelle (Conditions) (2yo Fillies) (Turf)7f · Soft · 8 ran 7th 53/1
22 Jul 21 Longchamp (FR) Commandeur (FR)T: Marian Falk Weissmeier Prix de Charenton (Handicap) (4yo+) (Moyenne Course: 2nd Post) (Turf)11f · Good · 16 ran 15th 81/10
18 Jul 21 Chantilly (FR) Get Set (IRE)T: Andrew Hollinshead Prix de la Foret du Lys (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf)11f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 6th 17/1
15 Jul 21 Chantilly (FR) Turtle Chope (FR)T: M Cesandri Prix du Bois Mousseron (Handicap) (3yo Fillies) (Turf)8f · Very Soft · 17 ran 3rd 24/1
09 Jul 21 Saint-Cloud (FR) Gracian (GER)T: Waldemar Hickst Prix Charles Semblat (Claimer) (Apprentice & Young Jockeys) (5yo+) (Turf)10f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 6th 41/10
08 Jul 21 Longchamp (FR) Get Set (IRE)T: Andrew Hollinshead Prix du Grand Trianon (Handicap) (4yo) (Moyenne Course: 2nd Post) (Turf)8.5f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 7th 27/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Aaron Mackay's strike rate?
Aaron Mackay has won 7 of 89 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Aaron Mackay's Fair A/E?
1.61, from 89 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 13 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).