Dean Heslop
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 120 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.87). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 12% (49 rides).
The record is strongest at Catterick (13.3%, n=30), clear of the rider's 7.2% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 12.2% (n=49, Fair A/E 0.72). David Barron supplied 34% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8.6%, A/E 0.85). The rider also read well on Soft going (11.8%, n=51). The record read poorly off a 61-180-day break — 2% over 49 rides, 5.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 4: Fair A/E 0.31 across 80 rides (2.5% strike, −64.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. Seasonally, the rider fired Dec–Feb.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.2% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 719 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 719 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 12 March 2005 to 12 September 2012.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Dean Heslop's strike rate?
- Dean Heslop has won 42 of 580 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.2% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Dean Heslop do best at?
- Catterick by strike rate: 4 wins from 30 rides (13.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Dean Heslop ride most for?
- David Barron, with 198 rides since 2008 — 34% of the total. That pairing has won 17 (8.6%).
- What is Dean Heslop's Fair A/E?
- 0.87, from 575 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.