What is Luca Morgan's strike rate?

Luca Morgan has won 54 of 303 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 17.8% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which yard does Luca Morgan ride most for?

Ben Pauling, with 217 rides since 2022 — 72% of the total. That pairing has won 42 (19.4%).

What is Luca Morgan's Fair A/E?

1.11, from 302 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Luca Morgan

303 rides in the last 5 seasons · 129 individual horses

As at 28 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Nov 2023 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)

from 1 Jan 2022

54–303

Wins / Runs

17.8%

Strike rate

n=303

124 (41%)

Placed

1.11

Fair A/E

n=302 · 0.96 incl. margin

−26.89

£1 level stake

n=303 at SP · −8.9%

£646k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

14.2%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 60 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 18% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.11). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 28% (50 rides). Rides mostly for Ben Pauling — 72% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 303 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 28 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance 45.7% when favourite Ben Pauling: 19.4% from 217 LTO winners: 28% Claiming: 21.3% Rides the favourite in 15% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 28% (n=50, Fair A/E 1.33), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 11.9% (n=42, Fair A/E 1.50). Claiming rides are the standout value angle: 21.3% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.28 and +40.88 to a £1 stake over 169 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Ben Pauling supplies 72% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (19.4%, A/E 1.13) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well in Class 3 (35%, n=60) and in Chase races (24%, n=125). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 8.5% over 59 rides, 9.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 5: Fair A/E 0.74 across 78 rides (10.3% strike, −22.62 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Chris Liesack Lincolnshire National Handicap Chase at Market Rasen (Dec 2022, £16,338). The standout partner of the record: Northern Bound (IRE) — 7 wins from 14 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 17.8% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

17.8%+0.0

n=90 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −20.13

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

28%+10.2

n=50 · A/E 1.33 · £1 +8.58

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

14.7%−3.1

n=95 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −14.68

When favourite

45.7%

n=46 · A/E 1.26 · £1 +4.22

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

21.3%+3.5

n=169 · A/E 1.28 · £1 +40.88

Big fields · 14+ runners

11.9%−5.9

n=42 · A/E 1.50 · £1 −5.62

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.1%−10.7

n=14 · A/E 1.29 · £1 −4.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 17.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

In Class 3 35% vs 17.8% · n=60

On last-time-out winners 28% vs 17.8% · n=50

Off a 61-180-day break 8.5% vs 17.8% · n=59

In Class 5 10.3% vs 17.8% · n=78

In Chase races 24% vs 17.8% · n=125

Off a break of 180+ days 25% vs 17.8% · n=36

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 163 23 14.1% −50.26

Chase 125 30 24% +28.87

NH Flat 15 1 6.7% −5.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 124 24 19.4% −13.59

Good to Soft 92 17 18.5% +28.18

Soft 68 10 14.7% −30.73

Heavy 15 2 13.3% −9.13

Good to Firm 4 1 25% −1.62

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell 22 5 22.7% +42.62

Cheltenham 19 3 15.8% −0.67

Uttoxeter 19 3 15.8% +2.50

Ffos Las 18 4 22.2% −2.63

Huntingdon 17 5 29.4% −2.50

Doncaster 15 1 6.7% −11.00

Worcester 15 4 26.7% +3.13

Market Rasen 14 2 14.3% −6.25

Warwick 14 3 21.4% −5.88

Fontwell 12 4 33.3% +5.29

Bangor-on-Dee 11 2 18.2% −2.00

Newbury 10 2 20% −3.87

Stratford 10 2 20% −4.00

Newcastle 9 4 44.4% +2.36

Ludlow 9 0 0% −9.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 127 23 18.1% −21.55

Class 5 78 8 10.3% −22.62

Class 3 60 21 35% +41.28

Class 1 21 1 4.8% −11.50

Class 2 17 1 5.9% −12.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 54 23 42.6% 1.26 +4.55

2nd–3rd fav 109 21 19.3% 1.01 −15.94

4th–6th fav 79 6 7.6% 0.82 −32.50

7th+ in betting 61 4 6.6% 1.71 +17.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

85.4% completed · 288 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 125 82.4% 5 4 12 1 0

Hurdle 163 87.7% 3 2 15 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

On Springs (IRE) 9 5 5 22 Apr 23

Hardy Boy (FR) 8 2 5 28 Jun 23

Apple Rock (IRE) 8 3 4 18 Feb 23

Whatsupwithyou (IRE) 7 0 3 22 Oct 23

Quinta Do Mar (IRE) 7 2 2 29 Apr 23

Pencreek (FR) 6 2 3 20 Jul 23

Northern Bound (IRE) 6 3 4 28 May 23

Nestor Park (FR) 6 1 4 6 May 23

Shakem Up'arry (IRE) 5 1 2 2 Nov 23

Mofasa (GB) 5 2 3 14 Apr 23

Bangers And Cash (IRE) 5 2 2 13 Mar 23

Get Prepared (GB) 5 0 1 5 Mar 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 129 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

11151513433243814203029

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardBen Pauling

72% of all rides
19.4% SR · A/E 1.13

TrainerRWSR£1

Ben Pauling 217 42 19.4% −5.18

Michael Scudamore 54 7 13% −4.52

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£928k

Prize money

2022

Best season · 35 wins

Bangers And Cash (IRE) — Chris Liesack Lincolnshire National Handicap Chase Market Rasen · Dec 2022 · Class 3

£16,338

Slipway (IRE) — William Hill Highland National Handicap Chase Perth · Apr 2022 · Class 3

£15,576

Fiercely Proud (IRE) — JCB 'Junior' NH Flat Race (Standard Open NH Flat Race) (Listed) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Jan 2023 · Listed

£14,238

Notable horses

Northern Bound (IRE) On Springs (IRE) Apple Rock (IRE) Quinta Do Mar (IRE) Doubly Clever (IRE) Pencreek (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Fame And Glory (GB) 27.3% · 6–22

Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,208 runs since 2008 (504 horses).

Mahler (GB) 29.4% · 5–17

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,853 runs since 2008 (785 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Shantou (USA) 0% · 0–12

Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,825 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.

Califet (FR) 27.3% · 3–11

Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,793 runs since 2008 (399 horses).

Yeats (IRE) 0% · 0–11

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,826 runs since 2008 (706 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 818.

Court Cave (IRE) 30% · 3–10

Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,942 runs since 2008 (551 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 605 · newest first

The latest 50 of 605 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 24 October 2017 to 6 November 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

06 Nov 23 Plumpton Sadler's Bay (GB)T: Tom Gretton Roger And Jenny Farrant Diamond Wedding Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 4th 9/1

02 Nov 23 Stratford Shakem Up'arry (IRE)T: Ben Pauling Charlie Longsdon Racing Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 19.5f · Soft · 6 ran PU 4/1

23 Oct 23 Plumpton Gambie Tiep (FR)T: Ben Pauling Back British Farming Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 4th 5/2

22 Oct 23 Kempton Whatsupwithyou (IRE)T: Ben Pauling Racing Tv Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21f · Good · 8 ran 4th 5/1

28 Jul 23 Uttoxeter Greatness Awaits (IRE)T: Ben Pauling Brit Direct Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 10 ran UR 8/1

20 Jul 23 Worcester Pencreek (FR)T: Ben Pauling JIC Transport Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 15/2

05 Jul 23 Worcester Champ Royal (FR)T: Neil Mulholland Wacky Weekender Festival Pitchcroft 21st-23rd July Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Good · 12 ran 5th 20/1

05 Jul 23 Worcester Mole Court (IRE)T: Ben Pauling Celebrating The Life Of Matthew Field Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 12 ran 1st 15/8F

28 Jun 23 Worcester Hardy Boy (FR)T: Ben Pauling Get Pulling With PJ Nicholls SsangYong Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 23f · Good · 6 ran PU 11/8F

10 Jun 23 Bangor-on-Dee Norley (IRE)T: Ben Pauling Boorer Family Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20.5f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 11/2

29 May 23 Huntingdon Hardy Boy (FR)T: Ben Pauling Garden Party Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 4 ran 1st 8/11F

28 May 23 Uttoxeter Northern Bound (IRE)T: Ben Pauling Clarke Chase (Handicap Chase) (For The Sir Stanley And Lady Clarke Challenge Trophy) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good · 12 ran 6th 22/1

27 May 23 Ffos Las Hardy Boy (FR)T: Ben Pauling Welsh Reindeer Retreat Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19.5f · Good · 5 ran 2nd EvensF

21 May 23 Stratford Sforza Castle (IRE)T: Ben Pauling William Hill Presents Up Front Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 10 ran 6th 15/2

13 May 23 Warwick Dawn Raider (IRE)T: Gary Hanmer Racing TV Conditional Jockeys' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 11 ran UR 11/2

12 May 23 Market Rasen Hardy Boy (FR)T: Ben Pauling BDN Construction Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 10/3

11 May 23 Huntingdon Hey Frankie (IRE)T: Michael Scudamore Every Race Live On Racing TV Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 25f · Good · 13 ran 3rd 17/2

09 May 23 Ludlow Moon Lady (GB)T: Nicky Henderson Music After Racing On Sunday Mares' NH Flat Race (GBB Race) (Conditionals & Amateurs) (Div 2)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 9th 11/1

09 May 23 Ludlow Brave Jen (GB)T: Nicky Henderson Music After Racing On Sunday Mares' NH Flat Race (GBB Race) (Conditionals & Amateurs) (Div 1)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 4th 5/2J

09 May 23 Ludlow Sinurita (IRE)T: Michael Scudamore SAS Utilities Ltd Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 3rd 40/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Luca Morgan's strike rate?: Luca Morgan has won 54 of 303 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 17.8% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Luca Morgan ride most for?: Ben Pauling, with 217 rides since 2022 — 72% of the total. That pairing has won 42 (19.4%).
What is Luca Morgan's Fair A/E?: 1.11, from 302 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.