Skip to content
Jockey profile

Manuel Fernandes

126 rides in the lifetime window · 96 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Nov 2017 100% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2014→)
No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
20–126
Wins / Runs
15.9%
Strike rate
n=126
39 (31%)
Placed
1.25
Fair A/E
n=125 · 1.06 incl. margin
−39.51
£1 level stake
n=126 at SP · −31.4%
£102k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
17%
KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 30 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 16% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.25).

Deterministic profile computed from 126 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
The read

The rider also read well in Class 6 (19.6%, n=46). The record read poorly off a 15-30-day break — 4.8% over 42 rides, 11.1pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 15.9% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
13.5%−2.4
n=96 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −35.37
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
50%+34.1
n=18 · A/E 2.16 · £1 +12.93
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−15.9
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
When favourite
56.5%
n=23 · A/E 1.86 · £1 +14.91
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
13%−2.9
n=115 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −54.89
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−15.9
n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break 4.8% vs 15.9% · n=42
In Class 6 19.6% vs 15.9% · n=46
When claiming 13% vs 15.9% · n=115
Over 6f – 7f 12.5% vs 15.9% · n=56
On Standard (AW) going 12.7% vs 15.9% · n=55
On first rides for the horse 13.5% vs 15.9% · n=96
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 55 7 12.7% −18.00
Good 25 6 24% −2.69
Good to Firm 17 3 17.6% −5.92
Good to Soft 14 3 21.4% −1.15
Soft 12 1 8.3% −8.75
Heavy 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW) 16 3 18.8% +5.50
Chelmsford City (AW) 15 3 20% −5.50
Kempton (AW) 8 0 0% −8.00
Lingfield (AW) 7 0 0% −7.00
Newcastle (AW) 7 1 14.3% −1.00
Doncaster 6 0 0% −6.00
Salisbury 6 4 66.7% +13.74
Yarmouth 5 1 20% −3.43
Newmarket 4 1 25% +0.33
Leicester 4 0 0% −4.00
Nottingham 4 0 0% −4.00
Bath 4 0 0% −4.00
Thirsk 3 1 33.3% +4.50
Haydock 3 1 33.3% −1.00
Pontefract 3 1 33.3% −0.90

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 47 7 14.9% −6.07
Class 6 46 9 19.6% −12.43
Class 4 19 3 15.8% −11.34
Class 3 7 1 14.3% −2.67
Class 2 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 7 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 25 14 56% 1.89 +16.16
2nd–3rd fav 36 3 8.3% 0.60 −21.17
4th–6th fav 28 3 10.7% 1.26 +2.50
7th+ in betting 37 0 0% 0.00 −37.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Culloden (GB) 4 2 2 31 Oct 17
Ibazz (GB) 4 1 2 26 Oct 17
Bengal Lancer (GB) 4 2 3 6 Oct 17
Jumping Around (IRE) 3 0 1 18 Oct 17
Prince Jai (GB) 3 2 2 11 Oct 17
The Groove (GB) 3 1 3 10 Oct 17
Bridey's Lettuce (IRE) 3 1 1 1 Aug 17
Layline (IRE) 3 0 0 3 Jun 15
Boy In The Bar (GB) 2 0 1 6 Nov 17
Touch The Clouds (GB) 2 0 1 2 Nov 17
Shania Says (IRE) 2 1 1 4 Oct 17
Miss Mumtaz (IRE) 2 0 2 23 Sep 17
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 96 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0·00017312522000
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
TrainerRWSR£1
Ian Williams 24 6 25% −2.76
Sir Mark Prescott Bt 24 8 33.3% +1.75
Ivan Furtado 9 1 11.1% −5.75
Tony Carroll 7 1 14.3% +6.00
Shaun Harris 7 2 28.6% +3.75
Gay Kelleway 5 0 0% −5.00
Kevin Frost 4 0 0% −4.00
William Stone 3 0 0% −3.00
Fergal O'Brien 3 1 33.3% +7.00
Milton Bradley 3 0 0% −3.00
Paul Midgley 2 0 0% −2.00
Paul Cole 2 0 0% −2.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2014→
20
Archived wins
£102k
Prize money
2017
Best season · 16 wins
The Statesman (GB) — International Stud Book Committee Handicap Newmarket · Sep 2017 · Class 3
£9,704
Cote d'Azur (GB) — Think As One Apprentice Handicap York · Jul 2016 · Class 4
£6,469
Alexander M (IRE) — Horseradish Catering And Event Creatives Apprentice Handicap Chester · Aug 2017 · Class 4
£6,225
Notable horses
Culloden (GB) Bengal Lancer (GB) Prince Jai (GB) Anna Medici (GB) Ibazz (GB) The Groove (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Kyllachy (GB) 27.3% · 3–11
Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.
Hellvelyn (GB) 50% · 2–4
Progeny have won 7.1% of 1,952 runs since 2014 (162 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 11.7% from 256.
Azamour (IRE) 33.3% · 1–3
Progeny have won 13.1% of 4,328 runs since 2009 (351 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 8.8% from 215.
Dark Angel (IRE) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,941 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.
Iffraaj (GB) 33.3% · 1–3
Progeny have won 10.5% of 13,990 runs since 2010 (1,093 horses).
King's Best (USA) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 9.9% of 7,763 runs since 2008 (574 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.8% from 249.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 126 · newest first

The latest 50 of 126 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 25 September 2014 to 6 November 2017.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
06 Nov 17 Kempton (AW) Boy In The Bar (GB)T: Ian Williams 32red.com HandicapClass 3 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 6/1
06 Nov 17 Kempton (AW) Pass Mark (GB)T: Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque Breeders Supporting Racing EBF Maiden Stakes (Plus 10) (Sire/Dam-restricted race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 66/1
03 Nov 17 Newmarket Tomahawk Kid (GB)T: Ian Williams 32red.com HandicapClass 4 · 10f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 9th 9/2
02 Nov 17 Chelmsford City (AW) Touch The Clouds (GB)T: William Stone Book Your Christmas Party At chelmsfordcityracecourse.com HandicapClass 7 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 4/1F
02 Nov 17 Lingfield (AW) Diptych (USA)T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt Betway Handicap (Div 1)Class 5 · 10f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 7/1
01 Nov 17 Kempton (AW) Poppy Jag (IRE)T: Kevin Frost Racing UK HD NurseryClass 6 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 8th 14/1
31 Oct 17 Catterick Dolphin Village (IRE)T: Shaun Harris Eat Drink Sleep Nags Head Pickhill HandicapClass 4 · 12f · Soft · 11 ran 6th 16/1
31 Oct 17 Catterick Culloden (GB)T: Shaun Harris Go Racing In Yorkshire HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Soft · 10 ran 10th 4/1J
27 Oct 17 Doncaster Boy In The Bar (GB)T: Ian Williams Racing Post/SIS Betting Shop Manager HandicapClass 2 · 6f · Good To Soft · 22 ran 6th 12/1
26 Oct 17 Chelmsford City (AW) Ibazz (GB)T: Ian Williams Bet Toteexacta At Betfred.com Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 9/2
24 Oct 17 Kempton (AW) Sunset Flyer (GB)T: Amy Murphy racinguk.com/join NurseryClass 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran PU 50/1
21 Oct 17 Wolverhampton (AW) The Throstles (GB)T: Kevin Frost FCL Global Forwarding Novice StakesClass 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 12/1
18 Oct 17 Lingfield (AW) Jumping Around (IRE)T: Ian Williams Arena Racing Company Handicap (Div 1)Class 5 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 9th 5/1
16 Oct 17 Windsor Arctic Flower (IRE)T: John Bridger Call Star Sports On 08000 521 321 Fillies' HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Good · 9 ran 9th 50/1
12 Oct 17 Chelmsford City (AW) Bed Of Diamonds (GB)T: Adam West Bet toteWIN At betfred.com Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 50/1
11 Oct 17 Kempton (AW) Prince Jai (GB)T: Ian Williams Close Brothers Business Finance Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 7th 9/4F
10 Oct 17 Leicester Commanche (GB)T: Chris Dwyer Red Deer Handicap (Div 2)Class 5 · 6f · Soft · 10 ran 8th 11/1
10 Oct 17 Leicester The Groove (GB)T: Fergal O'Brien Red Deer Handicap (Div 1)Class 5 · 6f · Soft · 12 ran 3rd 13/8F
10 Oct 17 Leicester Hidden Stash (GB)T: William Stone Stoat Selling StakesClass 6 · 10f · Soft · 5 ran 5th 9/1
07 Oct 17 Newmarket Ipsilante (GB)T: Jonathan Portman 150,000 Tattersalls October Auction StakesClass 2 · 6f · Good · 28 ran 24th 66/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Manuel Fernandes's strike rate?
Manuel Fernandes has won 20 of 126 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 15.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Manuel Fernandes's Fair A/E?
1.25, from 125 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).