What is Miss Heidi Palin's strike rate?

Miss Heidi Palin has won 24 of 130 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 18.5% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which yard does Miss Heidi Palin ride most for?

Dan Skelton, with 92 rides since 2022 — 71% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (20.7%).

Is Miss Heidi Palin in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Miss Heidi Palin's Fair A/E?

1.43, from 129 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Miss Heidi Palin

130 rides in the last 5 seasons · 67 individual horses

As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 13 days ago 96% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2022→)

from 1 Jan 2022

24–130

Wins / Runs

18.5%

Strike rate

n=130

41 (32%)

Placed

1.43

Fair A/E

n=129 · 1.23 incl. margin

+25.61

£1 level stake

n=130 at SP · +19.7%

£225k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

26.9%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 30 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 19% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.43). First rides on a horse are a strength: 25% on the first captured pairing (67 rides). Rides mostly for Dan Skelton — 71% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 130 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 14 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Dan Skelton: 20.7% from 92 First rides: 25.4% Claiming: 19.8%

The read

First rides on a horse have been a positive signal at 25.4% (n=67, Fair A/E 2.06). Claiming rides are the standout value angle: 19.8% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.55 and +30.99 to a £1 stake over 111 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Dan Skelton supplies 71% of the rides and edges the rider's average (20.7% vs 18.5%, A/E 1.42) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well in Chase races (27.8%, n=54) and on Good to Soft going (26.7%, n=45). The record reads poorly in Hurdle races — 7.7% over 65 rides, 10.8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 0.78 across 50 rides (10% strike, −7.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open NH Flat Race at Aintree (Apr 2026, £28,135).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 18.5% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

25.4%+6.9

n=67 · A/E 2.06 · £1 +40.98

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

11.1%−7.4

n=18 · A/E 0.51 · £1 −10.00

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

24%+5.5

n=25 · A/E 1.96 · £1 +12.50

When favourite

43.8%

n=16 · A/E 1.12 · £1 +2.28

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

19.8%+1.3

n=111 · A/E 1.55 · £1 +30.99

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.6%−12.9

n=18 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −7.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

50%+31.5

n=2 · A/E 9.50 · £1 +9.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 18.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

In Hurdle races 7.7% vs 18.5% · n=65

In Chase races 27.8% vs 18.5% · n=54

Over 2m1f – 2m4f 10% vs 18.5% · n=50

On Good to Soft going 26.7% vs 18.5% · n=45

On first rides for the horse 25.4% vs 18.5% · n=67

On Good going 12.5% vs 18.5% · n=56

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 65 5 7.7% −39.42

Chase 54 15 27.8% +39.53

NH Flat 6 3 50% +15.50

Flat 5 1 20% +10.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 56 7 12.5% −21.70

Good to Soft 45 12 26.7% +29.43

Soft 22 3 13.6% +3.88

Heavy 5 1 20% +1.00

Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Standard (AW) 1 1 100% +14.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Ludlow 9 2 22.2% −1.25

Cheltenham 8 0 0% −8.00

Warwick 8 2 25% −1.05

Ascot 7 0 0% −7.00

Haydock 6 1 16.7% −2.00

Hexham 6 2 33.3% +8.00

Newton Abbot 6 1 16.7% +0.50

Cartmel 6 0 0% −6.00

Fakenham 5 2 40% +6.88

Hereford 5 2 40% +22.50

Perth 5 1 20% −0.50

Aintree 5 1 20% +6.00

Stratford 5 2 40% +9.75

Taunton 4 1 25% −1.90

Carlisle 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 45 11 24.4% +22.91

Class 4 30 7 23.3% +8.37

Class 3 22 4 18.2% +1.33

Class 2 21 0 0% −21.00

Class 1 9 1 11.1% +2.00

Class 6 3 1 33.3% +12.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 17 7 41.2% 1.08 +1.28

2nd–3rd fav 34 9 26.5% 1.53 +8.83

4th–6th fav 35 7 20% 2.35 +44.50

7th+ in betting 44 1 2.3% 0.68 −29.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

82.4% completed · 119 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 54 75.9% 1 2 10 0 0

Hurdle 65 87.7% 1 0 7 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Frere D'armes (FR) 14 3 4 19 Mar 26

Bennys King (IRE) 12 3 6 25 Feb 25

Faivoir (FR) 7 0 2 11 Oct 26

Unexpected Party (FR) 4 2 2 1 May 26

Jet Plane (IRE) 4 1 2 30 Mar 26

Notnowlinda (IRE) 4 1 3 5 Mar 26

West To The Bridge (IRE) 4 0 1 17 Dec 25

Ashjan (GB) 4 0 0 22 Apr 24

Saligo Bay (IRE) 3 0 1 18 Jul 26

Forthfactor (IRE) 3 2 2 11 Apr 26

Forever William (GB) 3 0 1 4 Nov 24

Not That Fuisse (FR) 3 1 2 5 May 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 67 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 1

Only 1 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

25362817311100011617

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDan Skelton

71% of all rides
20.7% SR · A/E 1.42

TrainerRWSR£1

Dan Skelton 92 19 20.7% +20.49

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2022→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£225k

Prize money

2025

Best season · 9 wins

Forthfactor (IRE) — Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open NH Flat Race (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Aintree · Apr 2026 · Grade 2

£28,135

Frere D'armes (FR) — Sky Bet Request A Bet Female Jockeys' Handicap Chase Fakenham · Dec 2024 · Class 3

£11,169

Doyen Quest (IRE) — John Sillett Memorial Handicap Hurdle Warwick · Apr 2025 · Class 3

£9,506

Notable horses

Frere D'armes (FR) Bennys King (IRE) Unexpected Party (FR) Forthfactor (IRE) Jet Plane (IRE) Notnowlinda (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Bathyrhon (GER) 21.4% · 3–14

Progeny have won 12.4% of 1,206 runs since 2019 (189 horses).

Beneficial (GB) 25% · 3–12

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,047 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Coastal Path (GB) 0% · 0–8

Progeny have won 12.8% of 2,220 runs since 2014 (247 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 16.7% from 503. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.1% from 495.

Flemensfirth (USA) 0% · 0–5

Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,298 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Martaline (GB) 40% · 2–5

Progeny have won 14.2% of 7,350 runs since 2008 (723 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 128. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 120.

Jet Away (GB) 25% · 1–4

Progeny have won 11.3% of 2,567 runs since 2018 (277 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 130 · newest first

The latest 50 of 130 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 21 October 2022 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

01 Nov 26 Carlisle Nurse Susan (FR)T: Dan Skelton Pricedup Bog From 10am Castletown Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 8th 25/1

28 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Pepe Le Moko (FR)T: Mrs Jane Williams Brewers Decorating Centres Albany Derby Female Jockeys' Handicap Steeple Chase (Female Professional Jockeys And Amateur Riders' Race) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 4th 7/2

24 Oct 26 Kelso Ashdown Forest (IRE)T: Dan Skelton luckytiger.co.uk Bet 20 Get 20 Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 5th 6/4F

23 Oct 26 Cheltenham Snipe (IRE)T: Dan Skelton Chapel Down Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 3 · 25f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 9th 20/1

17 Oct 26 Stratford Ashdown Forest (IRE)T: Dan Skelton Annual Membership For Christmas Female Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Female Professional Jockeys And Amateur Riders' Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 7 ran 1st 11/4

11 Oct 26 Chepstow Faivoir (FR)T: Dan Skelton Dragonbet Born In Wales Seniors' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 6th 5/1

18 Jul 26 Cartmel Saligo Bay (IRE)T: Sam England RF Miller & Co Female Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Female Professional Jockeys And Amateur Riders' Race)Class 3 · 17f · Good · 11 ran 8th 20/1

23 Jun 26 Newton Abbot Ugo Bingo (FR)T: Joe Tizzard Proper Job Amateur Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 17f · Good · 7 ran 4th 9/2

09 May 26 Warwick Malinas Glory (IRE)T: Miss Hannah Lewis Jockey Club 0-110 Rated Series Final Open Hunters' ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Good · 4 ran 1st 13/8F

01 May 26 Warwick Unexpected Party (FR)T: Dan Skelton Carr & Day & Martin Open Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 4 ran 3rd 4/9F

22 Apr 26 Perth Am I Bovvered (GB)T: Sandy Forster Equine Products Best Turned Out Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 24f · Good · 10 ran 7th 22/1

11 Apr 26 Aintree Forthfactor (IRE)T: Dan Skelton Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open NH Flat Race (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 17f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 1st 10/1

10 Apr 26 Aintree The Mighty Celt (IRE)T: Dan Skelton Debenhams Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys/Amateur Riders) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 21 ran 7th 12/1

10 Apr 26 Aintree Faivoir (FR)T: Dan Skelton William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 20f · Good To Soft · 22 ran 15th 25/1

09 Apr 26 Aintree Unexpected Party (FR)T: Dan Skelton Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 24 ran 4th 5/1

30 Mar 26 Ludlow Jet Plane (IRE)T: Dan Skelton Bob Cashmore & Michael Davies Open Hunters' ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Good · 5 ran 2nd EvensF

19 Mar 26 Ludlow Frere D'armes (FR)T: Dan Skelton EFG Harris Allday Open Hunters' ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 4th 6/1

17 Mar 26 Exeter Theformismighty (GB)T: Dan Skelton Totnes And Bridgetown Races Company Ltd Open Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 6th 6/1

13 Mar 26 Cheltenham Lift Me Up (IRE)T: Miss M Filby Princess Royal Challenge Cup Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 26.5f · Good To Soft · 23 ran PU 150/1

11 Mar 26 Huntingdon Samwell (IRE)T: Dan Skelton CopyBet Supporting UK Horse Racing NH Flat Race (Conditional/Amateurs) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 1st 11/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 17 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 1) · to 24 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Miss Heidi Palin's strike rate?: Miss Heidi Palin has won 24 of 130 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 18.5% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Miss Heidi Palin ride most for?: Dan Skelton, with 92 rides since 2022 — 71% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (20.7%).
Is Miss Heidi Palin in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Miss Heidi Palin's Fair A/E?: 1.43, from 129 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.