Mitch Godwin
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 130 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.95). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 11% (66 rides).
The record is strongest at Brighton (14%, n=57), clear of the rider's 7.5% baseline. It is weakest at Chelmsford City (AW) (0% over 43 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 10.6% (n=66, Fair A/E 0.75), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 3% (n=99, Fair A/E 0.55). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 5.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.82 and −175.93 to a £1 stake over 354 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Sylvester Kirk supplied 28% of the rides and edges the rider's average (9.9% vs 7.5%, A/E 0.99) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also read well off a 0-7-day break (15.5%, n=58). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 32 rides, 7.5pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the rider fired Jul–Aug.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.5% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2015→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 795 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 795 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 20 February 2015 to 12 March 2020.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Mitch Godwin's strike rate?
- Mitch Godwin has won 60 of 795 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.5% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Mitch Godwin do best at?
- Brighton by strike rate: 8 wins from 57 rides (14%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Mitch Godwin ride most for?
- Sylvester Kirk, with 223 rides since 2008 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 22 (9.9%).
- What is Mitch Godwin's Fair A/E?
- 0.95, from 791 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.