What is William Muir's strike rate?

William Muir has won 378 of 3,658 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.3% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does William Muir do best at?

Brighton by strike rate: 20 wins from 125 runners (16%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for William Muir?

Martin Dwyer, with 1,474 runners since 2008 — 40% of the total. That pairing has won 169 (11.5%).

What is William Muir's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 3,626 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

William Muir

3,658 runners in the lifetime window · 330 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Apr 2021 99% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

378–3,658

Wins / Runs

10.3%

Strike rate

n=3,658

1,041 (29%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=3,626 · 0.89 incl. margin

−480.04

£1 level stake

n=3,658 at SP · −13.1%

£3.66m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

25%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 260 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.02).

Deterministic profile computed from 3,658 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance 32.3% when favourite Martin Dwyer: 11.5% from 1,474 Sent off the favourite in 8% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Folkestone (20.8%, n=48), clear of the yard's 10.3% baseline. It is weakest at Ascot (1.2% over 84 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 6.7% (n=269, Fair A/E 1.29). Martin Dwyer rode 40% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (11.5%, A/E 1.11) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also read well off a 0-7-day break (17.2%, n=204). 18 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Invincible Spirit Sapphire Stakes at Curragh (Jul 2015, £72,000). The stable star of the record was We Have A Dream (GB) — 13 wins from 86 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.8%−1.5

n=443 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −29.50

New recruits · first run for the yard

9.1%−1.2

n=33 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −16.50

Debutants · first career start

6.7%−3.6

n=269 · A/E 1.29 · £1 +17.25

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.5%−2.8

n=159 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −24.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

11.3%+1.0

n=80 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −20.15

When favourite

32.3%

n=279 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −5.99

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

10.2%−0.1

n=352 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −116.91

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.8%−2.5

n=218 · A/E 1.31 · £1 −5.75

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Folkestone 20.8% vs 10.3% · n=48

At Ascot 1.2% vs 10.3% · n=84

Off a 0-7-day break 17.2% vs 10.3% · n=204

With George Baker 18.4% vs 10.3% · n=76

At Newbury 3.2% vs 10.3% · n=124

With Darryll Holland 19.5% vs 10.3% · n=41

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 3,607 375 10.4% −438.16

Hurdle 41 3 7.3% −31.88

NH Flat 10 0 0% −10.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,354 149 11% −25.52

Good to Firm 822 69 8.4% −312.89

Good 744 77 10.3% −64.93

Good to Soft 336 34 10.1% −93.65

Soft 259 29 11.2% +14.07

Firm 95 11 11.6% +4.13

Heavy 48 9 18.8% −1.25

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 416 52 12.5% +76.05

Kempton (AW) 400 39 9.8% +4.48

Lingfield (AW) 337 36 10.7% −50.05

Windsor 256 21 8.2% −100.42

Bath 186 19 10.2% −67.25

Leicester 146 11 7.5% −46.40

Chelmsford (AW) 135 15 11.1% −20.39

Brighton 125 20 16% −19.57

Newbury 124 4 3.2% −90.75

Goodwood 115 11 9.6% +11.00

Sandown 106 12 11.3% −1.25

Lingfield 97 7 7.2% −69.00

Newmarket 96 6 6.3% −17.88

Salisbury 96 12 12.5% +48.75

Nottingham 92 12 13% −15.97

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,355 139 10.3% −175.88

Class 6 883 107 12.1% −19.17

Class 4 782 82 10.5% −166.81

Class 1 218 17 7.8% −5.75

Class 3 211 23 10.9% +16.20

Class 2 202 10 5% −121.63

Class 7 6 0 0% −6.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 342 99 28.9% 1.03 −33.86

2nd–3rd fav 800 123 15.4% 0.96 −130.68

4th–6th fav 1,250 108 8.6% 1.07 −73.30

7th+ in betting 1,266 48 3.8% 1.06 −242.20

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

We Have A Dream (GB)then Violet M Jordan 77 10 28 21 Aug 13

Stepper Point (GB) 63 10 17 17 Jul 17

Siouxperhero (IRE) 61 9 21 9 Jun 17

Griffin Point (IRE) 48 4 21 17 Oct 13

Cruiser (GB) 38 4 12 7 Oct 13

Data Protection (GB)then William Muir & Chris Grassick 37 8 17 5 Nov 20

Big Baz (IRE) 34 8 16 17 Nov 17

Javelin (GB)from Richard Fahey 32 3 11 23 Aug 20

Cent Flying (GB) 32 6 10 26 Oct 19

Alice's Dancer (IRE)then Mme G Rarick 32 6 11 20 Jun 14

Miss M (IRE)then David Pipe 29 3 8 4 Nov 19

Hot Mustard (GB)from Michael Bell 29 3 10 18 Nov 17

The 60 most-raced of 330 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 56 had their first archived run for this yard.

32 have since run for another yard, most often for William Muir & Chris Grassick (5) and Conor Dore (2); 28 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

79141161091411111110

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderMartin Dwyer

40% of all rides
11.5% SR · A/E 1.11

RiderRWSR£1

Martin Dwyer 1,474 169 11.5% +5.45

Sam Hitchcott 109 14 12.8% +36.25

Richard Mullen 92 6 6.5% −42.75

Dougie Costello 88 8 9.1% −24.35

William Carson 78 10 12.8% +5.88

George Baker 76 14 18.4% +31.00

Hayley Turner 76 4 5.3% −41.00

Daragh O'Donohoe 69 5 7.2% −20.38

Steve Drowne 66 7 10.6% +26.63

David Probert 66 9 13.6% −10.59

James Rogers 60 5 8.3% −23.00

Tom Marquand 59 5 8.5% −1.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

464

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£4.65m

Prize money

2009

Best season · 46 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Stepper Point (GB) — Invincible Spirit Sapphire Stakes (Group 2) Curragh · Jul 2015 · Group 2

£72,000

Pyledriver (GB) — King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) Ascot · Jun 2020 · Group 2

£65,120

Stepper Point (GB) — Derrinstown Stud Flying Five Stakes (Group 3) Curragh · Sep 2014 · Group 3

£65,000

Notable horses

We Have A Dream (GB) Stepper Point (GB) Siouxperhero (IRE) Data Protection (GB) Big Baz (IRE) Cent Flying (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kyllachy (GB) 9.4% · 16–171

Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.

Oasis Dream (GB) 12.1% · 14–116

Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,987 runs since 2008 (1,508 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 481. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 790.

Mount Nelson (GB) 9.8% · 10–102

Progeny have won 9.9% of 6,249 runs since 2008 (537 horses).

Pivotal (GB) 18.8% · 16–85

Progeny have won 13.6% of 12,785 runs since 2008 (1,019 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.4% from 108.

Medicean (GB) 13.1% · 11–84

Progeny have won 10.4% of 9,890 runs since 2008 (682 horses).

Equiano (FR) 14.8% · 12–81

Progeny have won 9.1% of 7,537 runs since 2008 (549 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,729 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,729 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 17 January 2005 to 10 April 2021.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

10 Apr 21 Lingfield (AW) Newyorkstateofmind (GB)J: Ray Dawson Sky Sports Racing HD Virgin 535 HandicapClass 3 · 5f · Standard · 5 ran 2nd 13/8F

27 Mar 21 Wolverhampton (AW) Far From A Ruby (GB)J: Georgia Dobie Bombardier 'March To Your Own Drum' HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 2nd 9/1

20 Mar 21 Wolverhampton (AW) Final Option (GB)J: Martin Dwyer Ladbrokes Watch Racing Online For Free EBF Fillies' HandicapClass 3 · 7f · Standard · 7 ran 1st 12/1

12 Mar 21 Lingfield (AW) Far From A Ruby (GB)J: Georgia Dobie Bombardier 'March To Your Own Drum' HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 2nd 40/1

13 Dec 20 Lingfield (AW) Newyorkstateofmind (GB)J: Daniel Tudhope Betway HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 11/4

30 Nov 20 Kempton (AW) Tip Top (GB)J: Cieren Fallon Try Our New Super Boosts At Unibet HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 9th 40/1

27 Nov 20 Chelmsford City (AW) General Zoff (GB)J: Tom Marquand CCR HandicapClass 5 · 16f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 9/2

25 Nov 20 Lingfield (AW) Newyorkstateofmind (GB)J: George Rooke Betway Supporting Safer Gambling Week HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 10/11F

21 Nov 20 Lingfield (AW) Newyorkstateofmind (GB)J: George Rooke Betway HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 2nd 2/1F

18 Nov 20 Kempton (AW) Mitrosonfire (GB)J: Martin Dwyer Unibet New Instant Roulette NurseryClass 5 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 1st 7/1

16 Nov 20 Kempton (AW) General Zoff (GB)J: Tom Marquand Try Our New Super Boosts At Unibet HandicapClass 5 · 16f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 3rd 7/1

12 Nov 20 Chelmsford City (AW) Hammy End (IRE)J: Pierre-Louis Jamin tote.co.uk Now Never Beaten By SP HandicapClass 6 · 13.5f · Standard · 12 ran 7th 5/1

12 Nov 20 Chelmsford City (AW) Gosnay Gold (FR)J: Martin Dwyer tote Placepot Your First Bet NurseryClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 7/1

05 Nov 20 Chelmsford City (AW) Data Protection (GB)J: Nicola Currie tote.co.uk Free Streaming Every UK Race HandicapClass 2 · 10f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 22/1

04 Nov 20 Lingfield (AW) Newyorkstateofmind (GB)J: Ray Dawson Read Katie Walsh On Betway Insider HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 1st 3/1F

28 Oct 20 Kempton (AW) General Zoff (GB)J: Silvestre De Sousa Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day HandicapClass 4 · 16f · Standard To Slow · 6 ran 3rd 5/1

28 Oct 20 Kempton (AW) Tip Top (GB)J: David Egan Unibet Casino Deposit 10 Get 40 Bonus Handicap (Div 1)Class 5 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 11th 20/1

25 Oct 20 Wincanton Mazikeen (GB)J: Brendan Powell Wincanton Racecourse Supports Racing Welfare Juvenile Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 15.5f · Good · 7 ran F 16/1

22 Oct 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Gosnay Gold (FR)J: Ben Curtis Get Your Ladbrokes Daily Odds Boost NurseryClass 4 · 8.5f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 18/1

21 Oct 20 Kempton (AW) Shuv H'penny King (GB)J: P J McDonald Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (Div 2)Class 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 10 ran 4th 125/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is William Muir's strike rate?: William Muir has won 378 of 3,658 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.3% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does William Muir do best at?: Brighton by strike rate: 20 wins from 125 runners (16%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for William Muir?: Martin Dwyer, with 1,474 runners since 2008 — 40% of the total. That pairing has won 169 (11.5%).
What is William Muir's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 3,626 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.