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Jockey profile

Peter Kavanagh

1,054 rides in the lifetime window · 440 individual horses
As at 11 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride 2 days ago 99% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
95–1,054
Wins / Runs
9%
Strike rate
n=1,054
260 (25%)
Placed
0.96
Fair A/E
n=1,052 · 0.82 incl. margin
−351.96
£1 level stake
n=1,054 at SP · −33.4%
£970k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
5.5%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 60 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.96). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 13% (106 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,054 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 11 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Nov–Jan 24.3% when favourite Donald McCain: 13.1% from 251 LTO winners: 13.2% Claiming: 10.2% Rides the favourite in 7% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Bangor-on-Dee (31%, n=42), clear of the rider's 9% baseline. It is weakest at Musselburgh (0% over 35 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 13.2% (n=106, Fair A/E 0.73), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 4% (n=125, Fair A/E 0.71). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 6.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.76 and −259.79 to a £1 stake over 440 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Donald McCain supplies 24% of the rides and edges the rider's average (13.1% vs 9%, A/E 0.95). The rider also reads well in Class 3 (14.8%, n=88). The standout partner of the record: See The Sea (IRE) — 5 wins from 12 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Nov–Jan.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
6.1%−2.9
n=440 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −259.79
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
13.2%+4.2
n=106 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −54.91
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
7.4%−1.6
n=217 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −48.00
When favourite
24.3%
n=70 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −22.58
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
10.2%+1.2
n=687 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −220.46
Big fields · 14+ runners
4%−5.0
n=125 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −95.79
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−9.0
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Bangor-on-Dee 31% vs 9% · n=42
With Ewan Whillans 18.2% vs 9% · n=33
At Musselburgh 0% vs 9% · n=35
At Doncaster 0% vs 9% · n=31
At Cartmel 2.2% vs 9% · n=46
In Class 3 14.8% vs 9% · n=88
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 766 70 9.1% −277.20
Chase 206 21 10.2% −17.09
NH Flat 76 4 5.3% −51.67
Flat 6 0 0% −6.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 445 32 7.2% −187.30
Good to Soft 295 29 9.8% −49.75
Soft 235 25 10.6% −94.84
Heavy 50 4 8% −20.17
Good to Firm 20 4 20% +3.60
Standard (AW) 9 1 11.1% −3.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Perth 104 10 9.6% −9.12
Sedgefield 97 6 6.2% −51.50
Hexham 97 7 7.2% −7.50
Newcastle 80 7 8.8% −44.46
Carlisle 67 7 10.4% −20.25
Kelso 61 5 8.2% −39.12
Wetherby 60 6 10% −31.25
Cartmel 46 1 2.2% −39.00
Ayr 45 5 11.1% +1.50
Bangor-on-Dee 42 13 31% +37.40
Uttoxeter 37 2 5.4% −23.00
Musselburgh 35 0 0% −35.00
Catterick 33 4 12.1% −12.05
Market Rasen 32 3 9.4% +13.50
Doncaster 31 0 0% −31.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 534 51 9.6% −83.83
Class 4 367 29 7.9% −192.05
Class 3 88 13 14.8% −18.83
Class 2 41 2 4.9% −33.25
Class 1 10 0 0% −10.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 88 23 26.1% 0.93 −17.08
2nd–3rd fav 216 39 18.1% 1.05 −17.38
4th–6th fav 351 23 6.6% 0.86 −115.50
7th+ in betting 399 10 2.5% 0.93 −202.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
85.2% completed · 972 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 206 72.8% 7 6 43 0 0
Hurdle 766 88.5% 14 9 65 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Dalileo (IRE) 30 3 11 20 Oct 26
Malangen (IRE) 30 1 8 2 Jul 26
Topkapi Star (GB) 20 4 4 4 Feb 26
Heather Honey (GB) 16 4 6 7 Nov 26
Pure Gold (GB) 16 3 5 31 Oct 26
Blended Stealth (GB) 15 1 5 21 Jan 26
Coventry (IRE) 13 2 4 31 Oct 26
Emotional Roller (IRE) 13 1 5 15 Jan 26
Ballydangan (IRE) 12 2 5 2 Oct 26
See The Sea (IRE) 12 5 5 29 Oct 22
Eveque (FR) 11 2 4 14 Mar 26
Glen Road (IRE) 10 4 5 27 Oct 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 440 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 7
Only 7 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
119778108111081010
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardDonald McCain
24% of all rides
13.1% SR · A/E 0.95
TrainerRWSR£1
Donald McCain 251 33 13.1% −86.75
Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith 162 22 13.6% +21.95
Lisa Harrison 111 9 8.1% −27.00
Lizzie Quinlan 86 4 4.7% −56.50
Ewan Whillans 33 6 18.2% +45.38
John Mackie 30 2 6.7% −24.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→
95
Archived wins
£970k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 27 wins
Blakey Boy (IRE) — Remembering Duncan Davidson Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Kelso · Mar 2026 · Class 2
£18,315
Prairie Wolf (IRE) — Sky Bet Extra Places Every Day Handicap Chase Haydock · Jan 2025 · Class 3
£10,562
Since Day One (IRE) — Break From The Field With Vertem Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Newcastle · Feb 2022 · Class 2
£10,178
Notable horses
See The Sea (IRE) Topkapi Star (GB) Heather Honey (GB) Glen Road (IRE) Dalileo (IRE) Pure Gold (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Born To Sea (IRE) 13.6% · 6–44
Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,296 runs since 2016 (312 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 868. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.8% from 725.
Galileo (IRE) 11.4% · 5–44
Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,201 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.4% from 890.
Golden Horn (GB) 18.9% · 7–37
Progeny have won 13.8% of 3,765 runs since 2019 (348 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 9.2% from 163. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.2% from 233.
Getaway (GER) 12.9% · 4–31
Progeny have won 11.3% of 11,024 runs since 2016 (1,034 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.
Sageburg (IRE) 20% · 6–30
Progeny have won 10% of 3,489 runs since 2012 (416 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 389. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 2.7% from 295. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.2% from 355.
Walk In The Park (IRE) 4% · 1–25
Progeny have won 13.4% of 7,076 runs since 2011 (711 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 11 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,054 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,054 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 12 May 2018 to 9 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
09 Nov 26 Carlisle Kadjar Des Mottes (FR)T: Donald McCain Christmas Community Raceday 13th December Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 5th 14/1
09 Nov 26 Carlisle Reliance Kid (FR)T: Andrew Wilson Fatty Renshaw Memorial Novices' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 5th 125/1
09 Nov 26 Carlisle Master Jack (GB)T: Andrew Wilson Racing TV Maiden Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 10th 250/1
07 Nov 26 Aintree Heather Honey (GB)T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 8th 16/1
05 Nov 26 Newcastle Mhordart (GB)T: Chris Grant Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 8 ran 7th 200/1
31 Oct 26 Ayr Coventry (IRE)T: Lisa Harrison Hogmanay Ball At Western House Hotel Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 1st 6/1
31 Oct 26 Ayr Pure Gold (GB)T: Lisa Harrison '3b Crane Hire Trick Or Trot' Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 4th 9/2
27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee The Big Breac (IRE)T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith Overton Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 12th 14/1
27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Glen Road (IRE)T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith Mount Vines Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran PU 25/1
27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Laysoft (IRE)T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith Kellyhill Financial Planning Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Mares' Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 40/1
24 Oct 26 Kelso Heart Above (GB)T: Dianne Sayer luckytiger.co.uk Bet 20 Get 20 Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 4th 6/1
22 Oct 26 Carlisle Coventry (IRE)T: Lisa Harrison Race Home With Genesis Homes Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 7th 6/1
22 Oct 26 Carlisle Farfromaway (IRE)T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith Class Of '63: 63 Years On Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 13 ran 5th 13/2
20 Oct 26 Hexham Dalileo (IRE)T: Lisa Harrison Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Brindisi Breeze Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 23.5f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 16/1
18 Oct 26 Sedgefield Master Jack (GB)T: Andrew Wilson The Roflow Specialist Ventilation & Dehumidification 'national Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 8 ran 8th 250/1
10 Oct 26 Hexham Clear The Way (IRE)T: Jane Walton Clubs Of Northumberland Open National Hunt Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 5th 40/1
10 Oct 26 Hexham Heather Honey (GB)T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith Tackling Insights Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 23.5f · Good · 6 ran 5th 7/1
10 Oct 26 Hexham Get On Son (IRE)T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith Hitz Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 6th 9/1
04 Oct 26 Kelso Heart Above (GB)T: Dianne Sayer Percy's Racing Dream Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 21f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 3rd 4/1
02 Oct 26 Hexham Ballydangan (IRE)T: Hugh Burns Lee "Bazza" Jenkinson Memorial Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 7 ran 7th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 27 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 9 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Peter Kavanagh's strike rate?
Peter Kavanagh has won 95 of 1,054 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Peter Kavanagh do best at?
Bangor-on-Dee by strike rate: 13 wins from 42 rides (31%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Peter Kavanagh ride most for?
Donald McCain, with 251 rides since 2008 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 33 (13.1%).
Is Peter Kavanagh in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 7 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Peter Kavanagh's Fair A/E?
0.96, from 1,052 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 11 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).