What is Sarah Kavanagh's strike rate?

Sarah Kavanagh has won 8 of 316 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 2.5% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Sarah Kavanagh do best at?

Punchestown by strike rate: 0 wins from 32 rides (0%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Is Sarah Kavanagh in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 4 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Sarah Kavanagh's Fair A/E?

0.69, from 316 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Sarah Kavanagh

316 rides in the lifetime window · 203 individual horses

As at 15 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Rides today 96% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

8–316

Wins / Runs

2.5%

Strike rate

n=316

37 (12%)

Placed

0.69

Fair A/E

n=316 · 0.55 incl. margin

−170.00

£1 level stake

n=316 at SP · −53.8%

£131k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

5.7%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 20 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.69).

Deterministic profile computed from 316 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Jul Fresh horses: 2.7% First rides: 3% Claiming: 2.6%

The read

The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 1.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.40 and −95.00 to a £1 stake over 180 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. The rider also reads well off a 31-60-day break (5.5%, n=55). Seasonally, the rider fires Jun–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.5% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

3%+0.5

n=203 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −127.00

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

20%+17.5

n=5 · A/E 2.03 · £1 +2.50

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

2.7%+0.2

n=75 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −62.00

When favourite

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

2.6%+0.1

n=313 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −167.00

Big fields · 14+ runners

1.1%−1.4

n=180 · A/E 0.40 · £1 −95.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−2.5

n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With horses switching code 6.8% vs 2.5% · n=59

Off a 31-60-day break 5.5% vs 2.5% · n=55

With P A Fahy 0% vs 2.5% · n=48

Off a 61-180-day break 5% vs 2.5% · n=40

With debutants 0% vs 2.5% · n=39

On Good to Soft going 0% vs 2.5% · n=36

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 222 4 1.8% −157.50

Chase 48 2 4.2% +22.00

NH Flat 32 0 0% −32.00

Flat 14 2 14.3% −2.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 116 2 1.7% −76.00

Good 91 4 4.4% −53.00

Heavy 73 2 2.7% −5.00

Good to Soft 36 0 0% −36.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Punchestown 32 0 0% −32.00

Fairyhouse 29 1 3.4% −12.00

Limerick 29 0 0% −29.00

Navan 21 0 0% −21.00

Wexford 20 2 10% −6.50

Clonmel 18 1 5.6% +33.00

Naas 18 0 0% −18.00

Tramore 16 0 0% −16.00

Cork 14 0 0% −14.00

Gowran Park 14 0 0% −14.00

Thurles 13 0 0% −13.00

Roscommon 13 1 7.7% −7.00

Down Royal 12 1 8.3% +22.00

Ballinrobe 11 0 0% −11.00

Downpatrick 10 1 10% +9.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 4 0 0% 0.00 −4.00

2nd–3rd fav 16 2 12.5% 0.98 −3.00

4th–6th fav 59 2 3.4% 0.55 −47.00

7th+ in betting 237 4 1.7% 0.81 −116.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

85.2% completed · 270 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 48 79.2% 1 5 4 0 0

Hurdle 222 86.5% 6 6 18 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Fr Gilligansvoyge (GB) 8 1 3 9 Nov 26

I Don't Get It (IRE) 8 0 3 30 Sep 21

Mary's Pride (IRE) 7 0 2 15 Nov 26

Eagle Roque (FR) 6 0 2 27 Dec 21

Demophon (GB) 5 1 1 19 Apr 21

Dont Go Yet (IRE) 4 1 2 14 Nov 26

Chosen Diamond (IRE) 4 0 0 17 Mar 26

Courting Vickie (IRE) 4 1 2 15 Jan 23

Lacken Bridge (IRE) 4 0 1 1 Jan 23

Influential Lady (IRE) 4 0 1 3 Dec 22

I'vedoneitall (IRE) 4 0 0 22 Jul 21

Sharp As A Pin (IRE) 4 0 0 27 Apr 19

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 203 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 4

Only 4 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

307006700030

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardP A Fahy

15% of all rides
0% SR · A/E 0.00

TrainerRWSR£1

P A Fahy 48 0 0% −48.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→

Archived wins

£131k

Prize money

2026

Best season · 2 wins

Dont Go Yet (IRE) — Michael O'Murchadha Handicap Hurdle Wexford · Mar 2026

£11,780

Demophon (GB) — Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-95) Down Royal · Mar 2020

£7,375

Feet Of A Dancer (FR) — Racing Again July 7th Ladies Handicap Hurdle Wexford · Jun 2023

£6,785

Notable horses

Fr Gilligansvoyge (GB) Demophon (GB) Dont Go Yet (IRE) Courting Vickie (IRE) Master Sydney (IRE) Minella Diamond (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Yeats (IRE) 7.1% · 1–14

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,864 runs since 2013 (709 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 821.

Doyen (IRE) 0% · 0–12

Progeny have won 11.6% of 7,400 runs since 2009 (607 horses).

Fame And Glory (GB) 0% · 0–12

Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,221 runs since 2016 (503 horses).

Arakan (USA) 0% · 0–9

Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,467 runs since 2009 (266 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 4.5% from 134.

Getaway (GER) 0% · 0–9

Progeny have won 11.3% of 11,056 runs since 2016 (1,035 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

Stowaway (GB) 0% · 0–9

Progeny have won 11.3% of 7,190 runs since 2008 (561 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 124.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 316 · newest first

The latest 50 of 316 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 15 May 2017 to 15 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

15 Nov 26 Navan (IRE) Mary's Pride (IRE)T: Edward Cawley Gaeil Colmcille GAA Kells 'Day At The Races' Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 25 ran 12th 14/1

14 Nov 26 Navan (IRE) Dont Go Yet (IRE)T: Edward Cawley Hotel Park St. Johann In Tirol Austria Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 9th 28/1

10 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) West Is Awake (IRE)T: Edward Cawley William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle24.5f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 6th 22/1

09 Nov 26 Punchestown (IRE) Fr Gilligansvoyge (GB)T: John G Carr Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Steeplechase24.5f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 8th 50/1

14 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Juarileo (IRE)T: Edward F Power Irish Stallion Farms EBF Academy Hurdle19f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 16/1

13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Free Flow (USA)T: Edward F Power William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle23.5f · Good · 18 ran 11th 50/1

09 Oct 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Fr Gilligansvoyge (GB)T: John G Carr Northern Ireland On Course Bookmakers Association Handicap Steeplechase23.5f · Good · 14 ran 7th 22/1

30 Sep 26 Sligo (IRE) Fr Gilligansvoyge (GB)T: John G Carr Sligo Races Handicap Steeplechase26f · Good · 12 ran 6th 33/1

19 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Tippinaway (IRE)T: Eric Larkin Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Ladies Handicap Hurdle21f · Good · 15 ran 11th 25/1

11 Sep 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Fr Gilligansvoyge (GB)T: John G Carr Lodge At Ashford Castle Handicap Steeplechase23f · Yielding · 16 ran 13th 14/1

23 Jul 26 Wexford (IRE) Sean Mc (IRE)T: Paul Nolan Wexford Racecourse Ladies Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 14 ran F 6/1

22 Jul 26 Wexford (IRE) Fr Gilligansvoyge (GB)T: John G Carr Racing Again Tomorrow 23rd July Family Day Handicap Steeplechase24.5f · Good · 15 ran 2nd 14/1

12 Jul 26 Sligo Mary's Pride (IRE)T: Edward Cawley Foley's Bar & Off Licence Handicap Hurdle17.5f · Good · 12 ran 10th 17/2

10 Jul 26 Cork Bob The Builder (IRE)T: Sean Thomas Doyle Kelkab Ltd. Handicap Hurdle (0-100)17f · Good · 23 ran 20th 22/1

06 Jul 26 Roscommon Madame Du Berlais (IRE)T: Terence O'Brien Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Ladies Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good · 16 ran 2nd 33/1

13 Jun 26 Downpatrick Fr Gilligansvoyge (GB)T: John G Carr Kevin Ross Bloodstock Handicap Chase (0-100)23.5f · Good · 12 ran 1st 18/1

09 Jun 26 Sligo Rosie Apple (IRE)T: Edward Cawley Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race18f · Good · 14 ran 12th 100/1

09 Jun 26 Sligo Commodity Broker (IRE)T: Edward Cawley RSS Record Storage Service Maiden Hurdle17.5f · Good · 16 ran 15th 80/1

07 Jun 26 Punchestown Mary's Pride (IRE)T: Edward Cawley Congratulations Nicole Lockhead Anderson INHSC Ladies Handicap Hurdle19f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 7th 9/1

30 May 26 Tramore Fr Gilligansvoyge (GB)T: John G Carr Tramore Handicap Chase (0-100)22f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Sarah Kavanagh's strike rate?: Sarah Kavanagh has won 8 of 316 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 2.5% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Sarah Kavanagh do best at?: Punchestown by strike rate: 0 wins from 32 rides (0%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Sarah Kavanagh in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 4 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Sarah Kavanagh's Fair A/E?: 0.69, from 316 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.