What is Thomas Willmott's strike rate?

Thomas Willmott has won 48 of 606 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Thomas Willmott do best at?

Catterick by strike rate: 7 wins from 35 rides (20%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Thomas Willmott ride most for?

Sue Smith, with 151 rides since 2008 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (12.6%).

What is Thomas Willmott's Fair A/E?

0.96, from 605 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Thomas Willmott

606 rides in the lifetime window · 266 individual horses

As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Feb 2023 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

48–606

Wins / Runs

7.9%

Strike rate

n=606

144 (24%)

Placed

0.96

Fair A/E

n=605 · 0.83 incl. margin

−117.22

£1 level stake

n=606 at SP · −19.3%

£526k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

18.2%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 30 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.96). In big fields of 14 or more the record reads 10% (63 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 606 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Apr–May 25.6% when favourite Sue Smith: 12.6% from 151 Claiming: 8.3% Rides the favourite in 6% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Catterick (20%, n=35) and Hexham (13.5%, n=89) — all clear of the rider's 7.9% baseline. Sue Smith supplies 25% of the rides and edges the rider's average (12.6% vs 7.9%, A/E 1.26) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well in Class 3 (13.3%, n=60). The record reads poorly in NH Flat races — 0% over 41 rides, 7.9pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 1m5f – 2m: Fair A/E 0.62 across 182 rides (3.8% strike, −97.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. Seasonally, the rider fires Apr–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6.8%−1.1

n=266 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −111.75

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

7.3%−0.6

n=41 · A/E 0.43 · £1 −30.05

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

6.6%−1.3

n=136 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −32.50

When favourite

25.6%

n=39 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −7.80

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

8.3%+0.4

n=552 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −74.22

Big fields · 14+ runners

9.5%+1.6

n=63 · A/E 2.01 · £1 +10.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.9

n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Catterick 20% vs 7.9% · n=35

In NH Flat races 0% vs 7.9% · n=41

At Hexham 13.5% vs 7.9% · n=89

With Sue Smith 12.6% vs 7.9% · n=151

In Class 3 13.3% vs 7.9% · n=60

Over 1m5f – 2m 3.8% vs 7.9% · n=182

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 360 26 7.2% −44.47

Chase 205 22 10.7% −31.75

NH Flat 41 0 0% −41.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 236 12 5.1% −81.25

Good to Soft 169 16 9.5% +22.25

Soft 134 13 9.7% −37.22

Heavy 64 7 10.9% −18.00

Good to Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Standard (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Hexham 89 12 13.5% −4.67

Kelso 72 8 11.1% −4.75

Ayr 57 2 3.5% −42.00

Perth 51 3 5.9% −25.00

Musselburgh 47 3 6.4% −27.30

Sedgefield 44 4 9.1% −21.50

Carlisle 37 1 2.7% −30.00

Newcastle 35 1 2.9% −32.50

Catterick 35 7 20% +72.50

Market Rasen 28 0 0% −28.00

Wetherby 27 0 0% −27.00

Cartmel 15 1 6.7% −6.00

Doncaster 12 1 8.3% +5.00

Bangor-on-Dee 12 1 8.3% −7.00

Uttoxeter 11 1 9.1% +18.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 280 17 6.1% −139.05

Class 5 244 20 8.2% −35.00

Class 3 60 8 13.3% −1.67

Class 2 21 3 14.3% +59.50

Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 47 11 23.4% 0.87 −12.55

2nd–3rd fav 97 19 19.6% 1.29 +18.83

4th–6th fav 191 11 5.8% 0.75 −80.50

7th+ in betting 271 7 2.6% 0.88 −43.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

82.8% completed · 565 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 205 83.9% 6 6 21 0 0

Hurdle 360 82.2% 10 1 49 0 4

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Lowanbehold (IRE) 17 2 7 12 Jan 20

Rivabodiva (IRE) 15 3 6 10 Oct 20

Romeo Brown (GB) 13 4 6 27 Jan 23

Vengeur De Guye (FR) 11 2 5 7 Nov 20

Kitty Fisher (IRE) 11 1 2 27 Jan 20

Jessiemac (IRE) 10 1 3 4 Nov 22

Tumbling Dice (GB) 10 1 1 31 Jul 22

Well Above Par (IRE) 10 2 3 29 Dec 20

Myburg (IRE) 9 2 5 11 Nov 22

Kauto D'amour (FR) 8 0 3 28 Sep 22

Ringaringarosie (IRE) 8 2 6 29 Feb 20

Urban Kode (IRE) 8 0 1 7 Jan 19

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 266 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

11542098404888

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardSue Smith

25% of all rides
12.6% SR · A/E 1.26

TrainerRWSR£1

Sue Smith 151 19 12.6% +144.25

Lucinda Russell 134 15 11.2% −41.22

Sandy Forster 48 3 6.3% −28.50

Ian Duncan 33 1 3% −28.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→

Archived wins

£526k

Prize money

2022

Best season · 14 wins

Romeo Brown (GB) — Pertemps Network Long Distance Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Haydock · May 2022 · Class 2

£26,015

Romeo Brown (GB) — BoyleSports Extra Places Daily Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Aintree · Dec 2022 · Class 2

£21,853

Well Above Par (IRE) — IJF Wishing Well Handicap Chase Kelso · Nov 2019 · Class 3

£18,584

Notable horses

Romeo Brown (GB) Rivabodiva (IRE) Lowanbehold (IRE) Vengeur De Guye (FR) Well Above Par (IRE) Myburg (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Yeats (IRE) 14.3% · 4–28

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,855 runs since 2013 (709 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.

Presenting (GB) 10.5% · 2–19

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Gold Well (GB) 11.1% · 2–18

Progeny have won 12.2% of 5,648 runs since 2011 (363 horses).

Cloudings (IRE) 11.8% · 2–17

Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,888 runs since 2008 (310 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.6% from 411. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 816.

Sageburg (IRE) 23.5% · 4–17

Progeny have won 10% of 3,489 runs since 2012 (416 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 389. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 2.7% from 295. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.2% from 355.

Lucarno (USA) 6.3% · 1–16

Progeny have won 8.5% of 1,190 runs since 2012 (140 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.9% from 116.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 606 · newest first

The latest 50 of 606 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 10 May 2017 to 3 February 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

03 Feb 23 Catterick North Parade (IRE)T: Sue Smith Join Racing TV Now Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 15.5f · Good · 7 ran UR 4/1

03 Feb 23 Catterick Prairie Wolf (IRE)T: Sue Smith Racing To School Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Good · 14 ran 1st 6/4F

29 Jan 23 Sedgefield Edgar Allan Poe (IRE)T: Sue Smith Free Tips Daily On Attheraces.com Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 17f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 3rd 17/2

29 Jan 23 Sedgefield Darsi's Darling (IRE)T: Sue Smith MW Paving And Groundworks Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 25/1

27 Jan 23 Huntingdon It's Maisy (IRE)T: Sue Smith Pertemps Network Mares' Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 3rd 100/1

27 Jan 23 Huntingdon Romeo Brown (GB)T: Sue Smith Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 25f · Good To Soft · 12 ran RO 16/1

26 Jan 23 Wetherby Dee Day Landing (GB)T: Mark Weatherer Try Racing TV For Free Now EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 17 ran PU 200/1

26 Jan 23 Wetherby Red Ochre (GB)T: Chris Grant racingtv.com Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Soft · 16 ran 2nd 100/1

26 Jan 23 Wetherby Kaphumor (FR)T: Sue Smith racingtv.com/freemonth Conditional Jockeys' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Soft · 10 ran 3rd 5/1

25 Jan 23 Catterick Ribeye (GB)T: Peter Atkinson Watch RacingTV Free For 31 Days Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19f · Soft · 10 ran 4th 16/1

25 Jan 23 Catterick Parelliroc (GB)T: Sue Smith Start Your RacingTV Free Trial Now Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Soft · 15 ran 6th 16/1

15 Jan 23 Kelso To The Limit (IRE)T: Stuart Coltherd Kelso Annual Members Conditional Jockeys' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 23.5f · Heavy · 4 ran 1st 3/1

15 Jan 23 Kelso Pipers Cross (IRE)T: Sandy Forster William Hill Bookmakers Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Heavy · 12 ran 6th 50/1

15 Jan 23 Kelso Dunnottar Castle (GB)T: Jackie Stephen Visitkelso.com Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Heavy · 14 ran 12th 28/1

12 Jan 23 Catterick Prairie Wolf (IRE)T: Sue Smith Racing Again 25th January Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 15.5f · Heavy · 6 ran 2nd 5/2

12 Jan 23 Catterick Cerendipity (IRE)T: Sue Smith EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Heavy · 6 ran 1st 11/1

09 Jan 23 Ayr Fortcanyon (IRE)T: Sandy Forster Watch Live On Racing TV Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Heavy · 8 ran PU 11/1

09 Jan 23 Ayr Moonacura (IRE)T: Stuart Coltherd racingtv.com Conditional Jockeys' Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Heavy · 9 ran 3rd 7/1

07 Jan 23 Newcastle Chumlee (IRE)T: Sandy Forster Join The Bet Club At Vickers.Bet Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Soft · 14 ran 9th 150/1

01 Jan 23 Catterick Edgar Allan Poe (IRE)T: Sue Smith Racing Again 12th January Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 15.5f · Soft · 13 ran 1st 28/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Thomas Willmott's strike rate?: Thomas Willmott has won 48 of 606 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Thomas Willmott do best at?: Catterick by strike rate: 7 wins from 35 rides (20%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Thomas Willmott ride most for?: Sue Smith, with 151 rides since 2008 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (12.6%).
What is Thomas Willmott's Fair A/E?: 0.96, from 605 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.