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Jockey profile

Toby McCain-Mitchell

344 rides in the lifetime window · 207 individual horses
As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride 2 days ago 100% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2020→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
55–344
Wins / Runs
16%
Strike rate
n=344
128 (37%)
Placed
1.12
Fair A/E
n=342 · 0.95 incl. margin
−18.26
£1 level stake
n=344 at SP · −5.3%
£710k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
12.5%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 20 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 16% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.12). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 21% (53 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 344 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance 33.3% when favourite Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies: 17.5% from 80 First rides: 16.4% LTO winners: 20.8% Rides the favourite in 16% of races
The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 20.8% (n=53, Fair A/E 1.06), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6.8% (n=44, Fair A/E 1.10). First rides on a horse are the standout value angle: 16.4% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.20 and +20.50 to a £1 stake over 207 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies supplies 23% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (17.5%, A/E 1.13) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well in Class 3 (22.5%, n=40) and over 2m1f – 2m4f (19.1%, n=94). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 11.1% over 36 rides, 4.9pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 16% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
16.4%+0.4
n=207 · A/E 1.20 · £1 +20.50
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
20.8%+4.8
n=53 · A/E 1.06 · £1 +16.88
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
14.6%−1.4
n=89 · A/E 1.18 · £1 +11.70
When favourite
33.3%
n=54 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −10.39
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
15.1%−0.9
n=299 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −53.01
Big fields · 14+ runners
6.8%−9.2
n=44 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −12.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−16.0
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 16% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Nigel Twiston-Davies 35.5% vs 16% · n=31
In Class 3 22.5% vs 16% · n=40
On last-time-out winners 20.8% vs 16% · n=53
Off a 61-180-day break 11.1% vs 16% · n=36
With horses switching code 11.8% vs 16% · n=34
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 19.1% vs 16% · n=94
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 187 29 15.5% −20.82
Chase 129 20 15.5% −12.07
NH Flat 28 6 21.4% +14.63

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 152 24 15.8% −25.34
Good to Soft 105 15 14.3% −2.35
Soft 56 9 16.1% −8.37
Heavy 21 4 19% +17.00
Good to Firm 10 3 30% +0.80

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Ludlow 26 7 26.9% +5.25
Chepstow 26 4 15.4% −15.24
Bangor-on-Dee 19 3 15.8% −7.58
Hereford 16 2 12.5% −4.00
Southwell 14 1 7.1% −7.50
Stratford 14 2 14.3% −6.50
Warwick 12 2 16.7% +2.00
Leicester 11 1 9.1% +15.00
Haydock 11 1 9.1% +8.00
Cheltenham 11 1 9.1% +0.00
Worcester 11 2 18.2% +4.38
Exeter 10 1 10% −1.50
Market Rasen 10 1 10% −7.12
Aintree 10 1 10% +1.00
Huntingdon 10 2 20% −4.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 135 21 15.6% −43.20
Class 5 132 20 15.2% −5.36
Class 3 40 9 22.5% +10.30
Class 2 24 5 20.8% +33.00
Class 1 10 0 0% −10.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 58 19 32.8% 1.01 −9.89
2nd–3rd fav 109 22 20.2% 1.11 +2.63
4th–6th fav 104 11 10.6% 1.32 +2.00
7th+ in betting 73 3 4.1% 1.36 −13.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
89.6% completed · 316 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 129 81.4% 8 1 15 0 0
Hurdle 187 95.2% 0 1 8 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Slievegar (GB) 8 1 2 13 Jul 25
Williethebuilder (IRE) 6 3 3 31 Oct 26
Beau Quali (FR) 6 1 3 31 Oct 26
One True King (IRE) 6 2 4 2 Apr 24
Harbour Light (GB) 5 1 2 7 Nov 26
Annie Express (IRE) 5 2 2 4 Nov 26
Little Pi (FR) 5 1 2 29 Oct 26
Glynn Brae (IRE) 5 2 2 10 Oct 26
My Bobby Dazzler (GB) 5 1 2 4 Apr 26
Safe Destination (GB) 5 3 5 12 Oct 25
Prince De Juilley (FR) 4 1 3 24 Jul 26
Top Of The Bill (IRE) 4 1 2 11 Apr 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 207 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Steady
2 from 15 13.3% · −2.7pts vs baseline
Last 14 days13.3%
Lifetime base16%
Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
1318171510130015261617
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardNigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
23% of all rides
17.5% SR · A/E 1.13
TrainerRWSR£1
Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies 80 14 17.5% +3.47
Nigel Twiston-Davies 31 11 35.5% +34.16
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2020→
55
Archived wins
£710k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 25 wins
Beauport (IRE) — 1st Class Logistics Berkshire National Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Ascot · Nov 2024 · Class 2
£38,967
Top Of The Bill (IRE) — Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Haydock · Nov 2025 · Class 2
£26,015
Melon (GER) — Debenhams Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys/Amateur Riders) (GBB Race) Aintree · Apr 2026 · Class 2
£25,720
Notable horses
Williethebuilder (IRE) Safe Destination (GB) One True King (IRE) Glynn Brae (IRE) Annie Express (IRE) Our Bill's Aunt (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Getaway (GER) 25% · 5–20
Progeny have won 11.3% of 11,030 runs since 2016 (1,034 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.
Westerner (GB) 13.3% · 2–15
Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,873 runs since 2009 (946 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.
Fame And Glory (GB) 16.7% · 2–12
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,217 runs since 2016 (504 horses).
Pether's Moon (IRE) 40% · 4–10
Progeny have won 13.1% of 918 runs since 2020 (107 horses).
Passing Glance (GB) 11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 12.4% of 3,580 runs since 2008 (296 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.8% from 222. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.2% from 290. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.8% from 171.
Arcadio (GER) 37.5% · 3–8
Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,981 runs since 2011 (375 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 344 · newest first

The latest 50 of 344 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 28 January 2020 to 10 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
10 Nov 26 Huntingdon Teorie (IRE)T: James Owen PricedUp Bet Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 5 ran 1st 13/8F
09 Nov 26 Stratford Emerald Tir (GB)T: Ryan Hatch Stratford Extra Raceday 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 4th 12/1
07 Nov 26 Uttoxeter Vinne (GB)T: Alex Hales Download The Matchbook App Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 14 ran 11th 100/1
07 Nov 26 Uttoxeter Harbour Light (GB)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Bet £20 Get £40 In Free Bets At matchbook.com Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23.5f · Good · 9 ran 1st 6/4F
07 Nov 26 Uttoxeter Shabalko D'herm (FR)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Follow Matchbook On X Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 9/2
07 Nov 26 Uttoxeter Top Jimmy (GB)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Matchbook Betting Exchange Supporting UK Racing Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16f · Good · 4 ran 3rd 15/8F
05 Nov 26 Newbury Gowel Road (IRE)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 9th 22/1
05 Nov 26 Newbury Spirits Bay (GB)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies OLBG Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 2nd 4/1
04 Nov 26 Chepstow Annie Express (IRE)T: Robbie Llewellyn Lords Taverners Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 23.5f · Good · 5 ran F 7/2
03 Nov 26 Warwick Lucy The Wire (IRE)T: James Owen Alder Demain & Akers Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 2nd 11/4
02 Nov 26 Plumpton Jubilant (FR)T: James Owen Kalm Club Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 25.5f · Good · 6 ran 5th 11/8F
02 Nov 26 Plumpton Stream Of Stars (GB)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Southern Cranes Handicap Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20.5f · Good · 12 ran 5th 5/1
01 Nov 26 Worcester Idalko Bihoue (FR)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Copybet Support Safer Gambling Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 4th 9/1
31 Oct 26 Ascot Williethebuilder (IRE)T: Christian Williams Lavazza Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 15.5f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 6th 7/1
31 Oct 26 Ascot Beau Quali (FR)T: Christian Williams Grundon Novices' Handicap Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 9th 22/1
29 Oct 26 Stratford Little Pi (FR)T: Sam Allwood Blaze A Trail Stratford Hat-Trick Hero Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 18.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 8th 7/1
29 Oct 26 Stratford Secret Des Lune (GB)T: Ben Clarke 4 X 4 Tyres Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 22f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 5th 9/1
28 Oct 26 Huntingdon All Good To Go (GB)T: Alex Hales Advertise At Huntingdon Racecourse Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 8th 40/1
27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Mr Mackay (IRE)T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies Spooktacular Family Day Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 13/2
18 Oct 26 Sedgefield Williethebuilder (IRE)T: Christian Williams Download The www.betvickers.com App Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 17f · Good · 9 ran 1st 9/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 12 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 7 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 4 runs (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0) · to 7 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Toby McCain-Mitchell's strike rate?
Toby McCain-Mitchell has won 55 of 344 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 16% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Toby McCain-Mitchell ride most for?
Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies, with 80 rides since 2008 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (17.5%).
Is Toby McCain-Mitchell in form?
In the last 14 days: 15 rides, 2 winners, a strike rate of 13.3%. That is in line with the baseline of 16% since 2008.
What is Toby McCain-Mitchell's Fair A/E?
1.12, from 342 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 12 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).