2:29 Nottingham
This Class 2 British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes over 1m75y at Nottingham on good to soft ground brings together an eleven-strong field of largely unexposed two-year-olds. With the pace shape rated unclear owing to limited run-style evidence across the runners, the race is difficult to read on paper and the KTB Fit Scores reflect that, clustering tightly between 42 and 49. Newcomers dominate the top of the card, underlining how much will rest on pedigree, sales background and the strength of the yards involved.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence because there is not enough information on how these juveniles have been ridden in their limited starts. Playing Card is the only horse with an established held-up style, suggesting he will come from off the pace, while most of the others are debutants whose preferred tactics remain unknown. This leaves the race open to any number of scenarios, with the key question being which of these lightly raced or unraced types can show the requisite improvement or debut promise on what looks an ordinary pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Space Bob49/100
Space Bob is a debutant from the Ed Walker yard which holds a solid 17% strike-rate at Nottingham from a big sample of 158 runs. There is little on the page beyond pedigree and sales background, and the low data confidence means his ability must largely be taken on trust. Kieran Shoemark takes the ride while the trainer and jockey combination shows a 15% strike-rate with an A/E of 0.93. By Space Blues, he represents a sire with a 13% overall win rate, but with no course win on record and nothing else to go on this remains very much an unknown quantity.
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2Playing Card49/100
Playing Card has already shown some ability, finishing second on his debut over this trip. He now steps up in class and remains unproven on good to soft ground, which adds a layer of uncertainty. The Harry Eustace yard has a solid 17% strike-rate at Nottingham from 46 runs, which offers encouragement, while Hector Crouch is aboard with a 14% strike-rate at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to come from off the pace in a race where the overall shape is hard to gauge, though the small sample makes it hard to be certain about his exact level.
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3Emaraat KTB Selection49/100
Emaraat is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on, so pedigree and sales background must carry the assessment given the low data confidence. The Harry Eustace yard has a solid 17% strike-rate at Nottingham from 46 runs and the trainer and jockey combination shows a 19% strike-rate with an A/E of 1.30. Daniel Muscutt takes the ride despite an 8% strike-rate at the track from 179 rides. By Camelot, a sire with a 12% overall win rate, he has no course win on record but the yard's local record makes him of obvious interest on debut.
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4Seagoing48/100
Seagoing showed little when finishing eighth on his sole start but remains very lightly raced and open to any amount of improvement. He steps up in class for Sir Mark Prescott whose yard has a solid 19% strike-rate at Nottingham from a big sample of 289 runs. Luke Morris is in the saddle as the trainer and jockey partnership shows an 18% strike-rate with an A/E of 0.89. With only one run on good to soft and no win or place, the going remains a question mark, yet the Prescott operation's local record and the colt's scope keep him firmly in the picture.
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5Avowed48/100
Avowed is a debutant by Stradivarius out of a useful sister to dual Group 1 winner Alice Springs, with a breeze-up sale that reflects decent expectations. William Haggas has a solid 19% strike-rate at Nottingham from a big sample of 390 runs and Tom Marquand is booked as the trainer and jockey combination shows a 21% strike-rate with an A/E of 0.91. The sire has a modest 9% overall win rate from just 23 runners, but with no racecourse evidence the level of ability remains completely unknown. Connections are capable and the Nottingham record of the yard adds to the interest on his first start.
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6Fulcrum47/100
Fulcrum is a newcomer from the powerful John and Thady Gosden yard which has a solid 22% strike-rate at Nottingham from 73 runs. James Doyle takes the ride on a colt whose pedigree and sales background provide the only real clues at this stage, with the trainer and jockey combination showing a 22% strike-rate and an A/E of 0.93. By Night Of Thunder, a sire with a 16% overall win rate, low data confidence means any firm conclusions would be premature.
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7Hamrin47/100
Hamrin was well beaten on debut over this trip and has only that one run to go on as he steps up in class. The Andrew Balding yard has a solid 12% strike-rate at Nottingham from a big sample of 229 runs while Oisin Murphy rides, with the trainer and jockey combination showing a 19% strike-rate and an A/E of 0.93. Unproven on good to soft ground, everything else remains unknown with such a light profile.
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8Leading Role47/100
Leading Role is a newcomer from a powerful yard with a solid 22% strike-rate at Nottingham from 107 runs. As a debutant the form picture is blank and the low data confidence means any judgement rests almost entirely on pedigree and sales background. William Buick takes the ride as the trainer and jockey combination shows a 30% strike-rate with an A/E of 0.95, but that is the only firm positive available at this stage.
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9Shared Odyssey46/100
Shared Odyssey has shown some ability in two starts, finishing second last time at this trip, and has placed once from two runs on good to soft. He steps up in class for a yard with a modest 11% strike-rate at Nottingham from a big sample of 132 runs, with the trainer and jockey combination showing a 12% strike-rate and an A/E of 1.10. With only two runs on his record the form has to be treated with caution.
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10French Artist45/100
French Artist is a newcomer who cost 150,000gns as a yearling and is by Lope de Vega out of a dam who produced Group-placed winners. The Ollie Sangster yard has operated at a 15% strike-rate at Nottingham from 13 runs while Callum Rodriguez is booked, with the trainer and jockey combination showing a 19% strike-rate and an A/E of 1.04. With no racecourse evidence and only low data confidence available his performance remains an open question on debut.
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11Mythical Tale42/100
Mythical Tale is a newcomer from the Charlie Appleby yard which holds a solid 22% strike-rate at Nottingham from 107 runs. Connections give this one every chance on pedigree and sales background though the lack of any racecourse evidence keeps the picture incomplete. Connor Planas takes the ride on what looks a typical high-class Appleby two-year-old debutant, with the trainer and jockey combination showing a 26% strike-rate and an A/E of 0.83.
KTB verdict
The race is hard to read with an unclear pace shape and a cluster of debutants and lightly raced types. Emaraat is the KTB selection as a Harry Eustace newcomer whose yard has a solid 17% strike-rate at Nottingham from 46 runs, with the trainer and jockey figures adding further encouragement. He is preferred to the likes of Space Bob, who comes from another yard with a strong local record, and the placed Playing Card who brings some racecourse evidence but is unproven on the ground. Seagoing and Avowed are not without hope given the scope for improvement and the strength of their connections, while the powerful yards behind Fulcrum, Leading Role and Mythical Tale ensure the race will not lack depth.
KTB Selection Emaraat
This is the narrative read of the 2:29 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Nottingham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Nottingham among the principals?
Seagoing and Avowed both represent yards with a 19% strike-rate at Nottingham, the highest among the top five.
What is the only established run-style in the field?
Playing Card is usually held up and produces his effort late.
How many of the principals are complete debutants?
Space Bob, Emaraat and Avowed are all newcomers with no racecourse form.
Which horse has already placed on good to soft ground?
Shared Odyssey has placed once from two runs on good to soft.
Which yard has the highest strike-rate at Nottingham among those represented?
John and Thady Gosden have a 22% strike-rate at Nottingham from 73 runs.
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