2:40 Worcester
This Class 2 Copybet Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final Novices' Handicap Hurdle over 2m4f at Worcester on good ground brings together a field of 16, most of whom are stepping up in class. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals rated 61 or higher and the remainder ranging from 60 down to 49, indicating a competitive race where progressive types and course winners will be to the fore. Overall the numbers point to a strong pace that could set the race up for patient runners.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is expected to be strong, confidence high that it will be on from early. Regarde and Square d'Alboni are likely to take the field along or race prominently, while most of the principals and the majority of the field prefer to be held up. The key question is whether the strong early gallop will cause the leaders to fold late, handing the advantage to those racing off the pace and producing their effort from off the bridle in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Trouville KTB Selection75/100
Trouville is a high-class performer who has already won over this course and looks well suited by the trip having placed over it before. His recent form figures of 3142 underline consistent ability at this level, and his record of one win from five starts on good ground confirms he handles the prevailing conditions. The five-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late, which aligns well with the anticipated strong pace. Olly Murphy holds a 22% strike rate at Worcester from 157 runs with an A/E of 0.97, while claiming jockey Mr T Walsh boasts a 100% strike rate at the track from one ride with an A/E of 5.5. Stepping up in class, he has the profile to make a bold bid as the KTB selection.
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2Road To Wembley72/100
Road To Wembley is a high-class performer who has won both starts this year and looks well treated on those ratings. He has already been successful over this trip and on this ground, and he has won at Worcester from his only visit to the track. Recent form figures of 21-11 reflect his current upward curve. Like the selection he is held up and produces his effort late, which should be ideal if the strong pace materialises as expected. Olly Murphy again brings his 22% strike rate at Worcester from 157 runs, while Sean Bowen operates at a 22% strike rate here from 452 rides with an A/E of 1.09. Stepping up in class, he remains a major player.
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3Regarde68/100
Regarde is a smart performer who has won both starts at this track, including a course-and-distance success. He is consistent on good ground with five wins from 13 starts and looks well suited by the trip having won twice from four attempts over it. His recent form of 52-2P1 shows he remains competitive at this level. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is set to play a key role in the strong pace anticipated. Jamie Snowden holds an 18% strike rate at Worcester from 200 runs with an A/E of 1.03, and Gavin Sheehan matches that 18% strike rate from 253 rides with an A/E of 1.09. Stepping up in class, his course record makes him a live danger.
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4Media Mogul63/100
Media Mogul is a smart performer who has already won over this course. He has shown solid placed form on good ground with one win from four starts, though he steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question. Recent form of 44-13 demonstrates progressive ability. The five-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late, fitting the race shape that could favour those coming from off the pace. Tom Dascombe has a 50% strike rate at Worcester from a small sample of four runs with an A/E of 1.46, while David Bass operates at a 13% strike rate from 221 rides with an A/E of 0.96. Stepping up in class, his course win adds interest.
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5Yellow Card61/100
Yellow Card is a smart performer with solid recent form including two wins and a second from his last three starts, as shown by his figures of 60-212. He has already placed here over a shorter trip and steps up in distance today having been placed twice from three runs at this range without winning. The four-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late, which should suit if the pace collapses. Mickey Bowen holds a 17% strike rate at Worcester from 48 runs with an A/E of 0.75, and James Bowen operates at a 22% strike rate here from 163 rides with an A/E of 1.23. Stepping up in class, his progressive profile keeps him in the mix.
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6Lock Stock60/100
Lock Stock is a smart performer who showed his class when winning over this course in a lesser grade last time. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question but the pedigree and progressive profile suggest he will handle it. Trainer Stuart Edmunds has a 13% strike rate at Worcester from 38 runs with an A/E of 0.84.
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7Miss Kingston58/100
Miss Kingston is a smart performer who showed her best form when winning a handicap at Chepstow last season and has already placed over this course and distance. She steps back up in trip today having last run over 2m, which poses a fresh question, though her record on good ground is sound with a win and two places from four starts. Trainer Alastair Ralph holds a 10% strike rate at Worcester from 185 runs while jockey Ciaran Gethings is operating at 6% from 132 rides here.
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8Square d'Alboni57/100
Square d'Alboni is a smart performer who has won both starts this year and already has a course success here from just two visits. He holds solid form on good ground with two wins and three places from seven runs, though he is yet to land a race at this exact trip. Dan Skelton has a 17% strike rate at Worcester from 405 runs with an A/E of 0.77.
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9Oneinthewell57/100
Oneinthewell is a smart performer who has looked in excellent order this year with two wins and two seconds from his last four starts. He has already won over today's trip and has placed here at Worcester, though he steps back up from 1m4f last time which asks a fresh question. Trainer James Owen strikes at 19% here while jockey Jonathan Burke is operating at 11%.
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10Down To Business57/100
Down To Business is a smart performer who won over 2m here on his most recent start. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question though his dam stayed well and the pedigree suggests the extra distance will suit. Dan Skelton and Harry Skelton both have solid records at Worcester.
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11Devon Red56/100
Devon Red has shown fair form in recent starts with a string of placed efforts and holds solid ratings for this level. He ran respectably when fourth on his only previous visit to Worcester and the trainer maintains a 22% strike rate here from a small but positive sample. First-time headgear is now fitted while he drops back in trip.
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12Likewhatyousee56/100
Likewhatyousee is a smart performer who has shown strong form this year with two wins from his last four starts. He has already run well enough at Worcester to suggest the track suits and acts on good ground, though he is still unproven at this exact trip. Trainer and jockey both have solid records here.
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13Whinney Hill55/100
Whinney Hill is a smart performer who has struggled to match that level in recent starts and was well held when fifth over 2m here last time. He steps up in trip today for the first time which poses a fresh question. Trainer Dave Roberts has a 7% strike rate from 96 runs at Worcester.
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14So Proud55/100
So Proud is a useful performer who has shown steady progress and ran a solid race when third over course and distance on his latest start. He steps up in trip for the first time today while wearing first-time headgear, both of which pose fresh questions. The yard has an 11% strike rate at Worcester from 123 runs.
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15Who's Glen54/100
Who's Glen is a smart performer who has won at this trip and looks nicely suited by the step back up to 2m4f. Recent form of 732-41 shows consistent ability in decent company and the horse acts on good ground. Trainer Donald McCain holds a 13% strike rate at Worcester.
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16Katarcice49/100
Katarcice is a smart performer who has finished placed on all three completed starts and arrives in solid form after two seconds this year. He drops back to 2m4f having been narrowly denied over slightly further last time, though he has twice failed to win at today's trip. Trainer Fergal O'Brien holds a 15% strike rate from 414 runs at Worcester.
KTB verdict
Trouville is the KTB selection. A high-class performer with a course win already to his name, he has shown consistent form through figures of 3142, handles good ground, and his hold-up style looks perfectly suited to the strong pace that is likely to unfold. Olly Murphy's record at Worcester adds further layers of confidence. His main dangers are stablemate Road To Wembley, who arrives on the back of two wins this year and has already scored at the track, and Regarde, whose course-and-distance success and front-running style could see him take the field along before others try to close late. Media Mogul and Yellow Card are next in the KTB Fit order and cannot be dismissed in what remains a competitive heat.
KTB Selection Trouville
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 25 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Trouville | 12/1 | 7Bet |
| Road To Wembley | 5/1 | 7Bet |
| Regarde | 25/1 | Bet Victor |
| Media Mogul | 20/1 | Bet Victor |
| Yellow Card | 14/1 | William Hill |
| Lock Stock | 7/1 | William Hill |
| Miss Kingston | 16/1 | William Hill |
| Square d'Alboni | 10/1 | 7Bet |
| Oneinthewell | 16/1 | William Hill |
| Down To Business | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Devon Red | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Likewhatyousee | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Whinney Hill | 70/1 | 7Bet |
| So Proud | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Who's Glen | 22/1 | William Hill |
| Katarcice | 18/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 2:40 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Worcester results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record among the principals?
Trouville has won here from three visits, Regarde has won both starts at the track including C&D, Road To Wembley has won from one visit, Media Mogul has won from two visits, and Yellow Card has been placed once without winning.
How does the strong pace shape affect the principals?
Trouville, Road To Wembley, Media Mogul and Yellow Card are all held-up types who produce their effort late, which should be favoured if the strong pace collapses. Regarde is the front-runner likely to set that pace.
Which trainers have the best strike rates at Worcester in this field?
Tom Dascombe has a 50% strike rate from four runs, Olly Murphy 22%, Nick Scholfield 22%, James Owen 19%, Jamie Snowden 18%, Dan Skelton 17%, and Mickey Bowen 17%.
Which runners are stepping up in trip for the first time?
Media Mogul steps up in trip for the first time, Lock Stock steps up in trip, Down To Business steps up in trip, Devon Red drops back in trip, Whinney Hill steps up in trip for the first time, and So Proud steps up in trip for the first time.
Which horses are wearing headgear for the first time?
Devon Red is fitted with first-time headgear and So Proud is wearing first-time headgear.
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