2:45 Navan
This 2:45 Navan nursery handicap over 5f180y on yielding ground brings together ten juveniles, most of whom have shown only modest form to date. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Imply narrowly heading the list on 55 despite limited racecourse evidence, followed closely by Santo Parvenue, The Drambling Man, Prince Of Peppard and Celestial Crown. With no obvious front-runner in a field where the pace shape lacks a leader, the race is set to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which positioning and timing will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates no horse is likely to seize the initiative, pointing to a steadily-run race in which being handy could prove advantageous. Most of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the early fractions should be modest and the race could develop into a sprint for the line in the final two furlongs. The key question is which of these late closers can best negotiate the tactical nature of the contest from their respective draws and find the necessary acceleration once the pace lifts.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Imply KTB Selection55/100
Imply is the KTB Selection despite being a limited performer who has shown very little in three starts to date. The step up in trip to 5f180y poses a fresh question while the small sample makes the going an unknown, although the yard’s strong 22% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 2.43 from 18 runs is a significant plus. Rory Mulligan takes the ride and while his 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.98 from 40 rides is closer to expectations, the trainer-jockey combination still carries interest. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Imply will need to find improvement from stall 7 in what is likely to be a steadily-run affair. The official rating of 58 reflects his current level, and with recent form figures of 065 he remains unexposed in some respects.
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2Santo Parvenue51/100
Santo Parvenue is a limited performer who has shown mixed form in five starts, winning once on yielding ground but finishing down the field on his most recent outing. The step up in trip today for the first time poses a fresh question, though the yard have a solid 11% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.15 from 47 runs. Nathan Crosse takes over in the saddle and operates at a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.92 from 181 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 2 which could prove helpful in a race lacking an obvious leader. With an official rating of 59 and recent form figures of 44713, his sole success on yielding ground remains his strongest piece of form to date.
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3The Drambling Man50/100
The Drambling Man is a modest performer who has shown little spark in six starts to date and finished no closer than sixth. Drawn in stall one which could help, he is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that assessment. The yard’s modest 8% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.93 from 72 runs and the jockey’s complete lack of success from 13 rides at the track offer no encouragement. Placed once from two starts on yielding ground without winning, the trip remains unproven. With an official rating of 64 and recent form figures of 696903, he will need to show significant improvement to figure prominently.
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4Prince Of Peppard50/100
Prince Of Peppard is a modest performer who has shown his best form when placed over this trip on his latest start. He ran respectably when fourth here on his only previous visit to Navan but has been beaten a fair way on his last two outings. Trainer J. P. Murtagh and jockey Ben Coen both have established records at the track, the yard striking at 12% with an A/E of 0.89 from 256 runs and the rider at 9% with an A/E of 0.73 from 270 rides, though neither figure stands out. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he remains unproven on yielding ground. Carrying an official rating of 68 with recent form figures of 96742, he enters the race with some course experience behind him.
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5Celestial Crown47/100
Celestial Crown is a modest performer who has been well held in six starts and showed no improvement last time. He has run once here without placing and has failed to make the frame in two starts at today’s trip. Trainer J. P. Murtagh strikes at 12% here from a big sample with an A/E of 0.89 from 256 runs while Seamie Heffernan is on 10% with an A/E of 0.84 from 680 rides at Navan. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is drawn in stall 6 and remains unproven on yielding ground. With an official rating of 66 and recent form figures of 278788, he will need to find more than he has shown so far.
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6Docks43/100
Docks is a limited performer who has shown very little in four starts and finished a remote 17th on his only visit to Navan. He steps up in trip today having looked out of his depth at the minimum, though the move could still ask a fresh question of him, and he has placed once from one run on yielding ground. Trainer and jockey both operate with modest strike rates at this track.
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7Lily Bear41/100
Lily Bear is a limited filly who has shown very little in four starts to date. She steps up in trip again today having failed to make any impact over 5f last time, and she has one run on yielding ground without winning or placing. Both trainer and jockey have modest records at Navan.
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8Siege Of Tyre38/100
Siege Of Tyre is limited on what he has shown in four runs and the recent form figures offer little encouragement. He steps up in trip today having failed to make an impact at this distance last time, with the trainer holding a solid 10% strike rate at Navan while the jockey operates at a 5% strike rate here.
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9Rathbran Lady37/100
Rathbran Lady is a limited filly who has shown very little in six starts and was beaten 11 lengths when seventh on her only visit to Navan. The yard’s modest 5% strike-rate here from a big sample offers little encouragement, though the jockey’s 8% record from 121 rides is respectable, and she steps up in trip for the first time.
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10Mickian Thomas35/100
Mickian Thomas is a limited sort who has finished sixth or worse in all three starts and now drops back from a mile to 5f180y. First-time headgear is tried, the yard’s small Navan sample offers no real guide, and he remains unproven on yielding ground, though the jockey has a solid 11% strike rate here from 19 rides.
KTB verdict
Imply is the KTB Selection in a race where the majority of runners have shown only limited ability. He represents a yard with a strong record at Navan and while his own form is modest, the step up in trip and the steadily-run nature of the contest could allow him to show more than he has to date from a mid-division draw. The main dangers are headed by Santo Parvenue, who has already won on yielding ground and is drawn well, along with Prince Of Peppard who has shown his best form over today’s trip and has course experience. The Drambling Man and Celestial Crown cannot be entirely dismissed on their best days but both have significant negatives attached.
KTB Selection Imply
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Imply the KTB Selection despite limited form?
Imply heads the KTB Fit ratings on 55 and the trainer has a strong 22% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 2.43 from 18 runs, outweighing the modest jockey record and the horse’s own limited performances.
Which horse has already won on yielding ground?
Santo Parvenue has 1 win from 1 run on yielding ground.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
All five principals are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which horse is trying first-time headgear?
Mickian Thomas is fitted with first-time headgear.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at Navan among those riding in this race?
Reese Holohan has an 11% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.05 from 19 rides.
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