2:15 Navan
This 2:15 maiden at Navan over 5f180y on yielding ground features a field of 13, most of whom bring limited racecourse evidence or modest form. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Rosanella heading the list on 57 despite having only one run in the last year. Several lightly raced types and newcomers sit close behind, underlining how thin the overall form picture remains in a race where many questions are still to be answered.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as tentative with medium confidence and only thin evidence of a confirmed front-runner. Kula Bula Boyo has shown a tendency to make the running on limited evidence while Port Arthur is more likely to race prominently. Most of the principals, including the selection Rosanella, prefer to be held up and produce their effort late. The key question is whether the race will develop sufficient early speed or whether the held-up brigade can pick up the pieces in a race that could potentially lack sustained pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Rosanella KTB Selection57/100
Rosanella is a lightly raced filly whose form picture is very thin after just one run in the past year. She drops back from 7f to an untried 5f today, which asks a fresh question of her. The trainer has a solid 9% strike rate at Navan from 11 runs with an A/E of 2.03 while the jockey operates at a 5% strike rate from a big sample of 179 rides with an A/E of 0.61. She is held up, usually producing her effort late on the evidence available, though that data carries low confidence. Her going is unproven on yielding and she has no course form on record.
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2Right On Time55/100
Right On Time is a newcomer whose profile rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The yard has a solid 12% strike-rate at Navan from 65 runs with an A/E of 1.86 while the jockey sits on a more modest 6% strike rate from 458 rides with an A/E of 0.73. With low data confidence any firm view on his ability would be premature. He is a 3-year-old with no runs on yielding ground to date and no course win on record. The trainer and jockey combination shows 2/21 with an A/E of 1.00.
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3Lilli's Angel52/100
Lilli's Angel is a modest performer who has shown a bit of promise in two of her three starts. She has already placed at today's trip without winning and is rated OR 66. The wide draw in stall 13 is a clear negative from a poor position while her run-style is to be held up and produce her effort late. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Navan from 16 runs with an A/E of 1.28 and the jockey records a 9% strike rate from 270 rides with an A/E of 0.73. She has been placed once from one run on yielding ground though without winning.
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4What's Enough51/100
What's Enough is a lightly raced 4-year-old with just one run to go on and that recent third leaves plenty to work out. The trainer has a solid 11% strike rate from 19 runs at Navan with an A/E of 1.15 while the jockey operates at 8% from 121 rides with an A/E of 1.04. He is held up, usually producing his effort late though that is based on limited evidence carrying low confidence. The trip is a fresh question today and the going remains unknown with such a small sample as he has no runs on yielding ground.
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5Almeiyda50/100
Almeiyda is a fair 3-year-old with consistent placed form including two seconds this year yet has failed to win in eight starts and is rated OR 75. Dropping back to an untried 5f trip poses a fresh question while the yielding ground has seen her competitive without winning. She is held up, usually producing her effort late. The powerful trainer Dermot Weld has a 12% strike rate at Navan from a large 817 runs with an A/E of 0.68 and jockey Chris Hayes records 7% from 746 rides with an A/E of 0.73.
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6Port Arthur48/100
Port Arthur is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on his better days, finishing second over this trip last time. He has been placed twice at today's distance from four attempts though has yet to win. The trainer and jockey both have modest records at Navan while the small amount of going experience on yielding leaves that side of things unknown.
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7Kula Bula Boyo47/100
Kula Bula Boyo has shown little in three starts to date with a recent form string of 700. The step up in trip poses a fresh question for a lightly-raced 3-year-old whose overall profile remains hard to weigh up. The trainer holds a 10% strike rate from 115 runs at Navan while the jockey is operating at 6% from 194 rides here.
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8My Cubby Bear46/100
My Cubby Bear is a modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing second on both his last two starts including over this trip. He has been placed twice at today's distance from three attempts but remains a maiden after four runs. The trainer has a 10% strike rate from 410 runs at Navan while the jockey is 0-5 at the track.
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9Metallic45/100
Metallic has shown little in three starts to date, finishing well beaten on each occasion including when 16th on his only visit to this track. The drop back from 1m2f to 5f is an entirely new question for him. The trainer has a 12% strike rate from 508 runs at Navan while the jockey is 7% from 136 rides here.
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10Dreaminthejungle45/100
Dreaminthejungle is a modest performer who has shown very little in three starts to date. Recent form of 7-50 offers no encouragement and the yard's poor 4% strike-rate at Navan is another negative. The jockey is also 0-5 here and the horse remains fully unexposed on the pedigree side.
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11Tribal Belle44/100
Tribal Belle has shown very little in two starts to date and now tries first-time headgear. The yard's modest record at Navan offers no obvious encouragement while the jockey's long-term strike rate here is ordinary. With only two runs on the board and a small-sample trip effort behind her, there is simply not enough evidence to form a clear view.
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12Astute Power39/100
Astute Power is a modest performer who has shown a bit of ability on his day but has been well below form on his last two starts. He has placed once from two runs at Navan and steps up in trip today having failed to land a blow in three previous attempts at this distance. The trainer has a 9% strike rate here from 421 runs while the jockey is operating at 4% from 123 rides.
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13Blessed By Faith38/100
Blessed By Faith is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The yard has a modest 3% strike rate from 36 runs at Navan while the jockey is similarly quiet with a 3% record from 31 rides here. Data confidence is low so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
KTB verdict
Rosanella is the KTB selection. She is a lightly raced filly whose form picture is admittedly very thin but the yard's solid record at Navan and the way she shapes as a late runner give her scope in a race where so many profiles are incomplete. The drop back in trip will ask a new question yet the overall KTB Fit rating of 57 edges her clear of a field that largely consists of modest performers or horses with even less to recommend them. The main dangers are Right On Time, whose pedigree-based profile is supported by a yard in reasonable form at the track, and the more exposed but consistent Lilli's Angel and Almeiyda, though both must overcome their own respective drawbacks of draw and lack of a win.
KTB Selection Rosanella
This is the narrative read of the 2:15 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping back in trip from 7f to 5f180y?
Rosanella drops back from 7f to an untried 5f today.
What is the widest draw in the field and which horse has it?
Lilli's Angel has the wide draw in stall 13.
Which runner is trying first-time headgear?
Tribal Belle now tries first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Navan among the principals?
Lilli's Angel's trainer has a 13% strike rate at Navan from 16 runs.
Which horse has course form at Navan including a placing?
Astute Power has placed once from two runs at Navan.
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