3:32 Listowel
The Edmund & Josie Whelan Memorial Listowel Stakes is a Listed race over a mile on good ground at Listowel, featuring a field of 12 that mixes useful and smart performers with some lightly raced types. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals rated between 57 and 59, underlining a competitive renewal where course experience, trip suitability and ground preference will all matter. The overall KTB numbers point to a race that could be shaped by an uncontested lead, rewarding those who can close effectively while exposing those with unproven stamina or surface credentials.
How the race shapes up
With a lone leader and high confidence in the pace shape, Queen Of The Bogs is expected to bowl along in front from stall 12 with little to pressure her early. Most of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who will be produced late, meaning the race is likely to develop into a sprint for the line once the leader tires. The key question is whether the uncontested lead will prove hard for the closers to peg back on this good ground, or if one of the patiently ridden runners can produce the necessary turn of foot in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Cristal Clere59/100
Cristal Clere is a useful performer who has won at this track from three visits and holds solid placed form on good ground. He drops back from 1m4½f to a trip he has won over three times from twelve starts, though he has been well held in both runs this year. First-time headgear is now fitted while the yard's 15 percent strike rate at Listowel from 34 runs gives some encouragement. From draw 1 he will be held up and produce his effort late. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 2/32 (6%) record with an A/E of 0.58 and -£21.17 LSP. Placed 4 of 6 on good, he has course winning form to his name.
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2La Tulipe Noire59/100
La Tulipe Noire is a limited performer on the balance of her ratings and recent form that has produced no win or place in the last five starts. She drops back from 2m1f to a trip she has won at before though she has shown little on good ground from 12 attempts. The trainer holds a solid 13% strike rate at Listowel from 24 runs while this is the mare's first run at the track. Usually held up with high confidence in that run-style, she will be produced late from a wide draw in stall 11. The trainer and jockey record stands at 3/42 (7%) with an A/E of 1.34 and +£23.00 LSP. The jockey herself has a 20% strike rate at Listowel with an A/E of 3.18 from only 5 rides.
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3Meriden KTB Selection59/100
Meriden is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after a string of placed efforts. He has won on good ground and at this trip, so the conditions look suitable enough. The trainer's modest 6% strike-rate at Listowel from a big sample of 194 runs is a negative. Usually held up with high confidence, he will come from off the pace having shown a 111267 recent form line. The trainer and jockey combination has a 9/59 (15%) record with an A/E of 1.48 and -£6.50 LSP. At three he is the youngest in the field and holds a 2 wins from 4 record on good ground.
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4Qualixia57/100
Qualixia is a useful performer who arrives in solid form having won twice and finished placed on three other occasions from her last five starts. She drops back to 1m today having been placed at the trip previously though she has never raced on good ground. O'Brien has a 17% strike rate at Listowel from 276 runs while this is the horse's first visit to the track. The trainer and jockey record is 175/1597 (11%) with an A/E of 0.73 and -£548.26 LSP. From draw 6 she will be held up in the race. Her recent form reads 11541- and she steps back in distance after racing over further.
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5Jagged Edge57/100
Jagged Edge is a smart performer who has won four of his seven starts at this trip and looks well suited by good ground having won twice from three starts on it. Recent form of 10301 shows useful ability mixed with the occasional poor run. Trainer has only two runs at Listowel which is too small a sample to judge while this is the horse's first appearance here. Usually held up with high confidence in that run-style, he will be ridden patiently from draw 7. The trainer and jockey record stands at 30/172 (17%) with an A/E of 1.05 and -£9.11 LSP. At four years old he brings a -10301 recent form line into the race.
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6Flower Forest56/100
Flower Forest has shown fair ability in three runs and is lightly raced overall. He has already won on this ground and at today's trip, which are both plus points, while his yard has a solid 19% strike rate at Listowel from a large sample. The form is not fully exposed yet so there are still questions to answer. Usually held up, he carries a 451 recent form line.
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7Iowa City55/100
Iowa City is a useful performer who has been mixing it at a similar level this year. Dropping back to a trip he has won over before looks a positive move though his record on good ground is modest from just two starts. Twomey has a solid 28% strike rate at Listowel while Lee is aboard. Recent form reads 313-40 and he will be held up.
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8Mixed Feelings55/100
Mixed Feelings is a useful performer who has already won over this trip. Recent form of 3-150 shows solid placed efforts mixed with a couple of lesser runs, though the class read remains positive. Trainer has a strong 17% strike rate at Listowel from a big sample. Stepping up in class from draw 5, he will race held up.
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9Iron Fist54/100
Iron Fist is a useful performer who has been a regular in decent company and showed his best form when placed twice on good ground. He drops back to a trip he has won over before after his last run at a mile and a quarter. Trainer records a 12 percent strike rate from 420 runs at Listowel while this is the horse's first visit to the track. Usually held up, recent form is 023050.
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10Chica Guerrera51/100
Chica Guerrera is a useful performer who has been consistent this year with placed efforts at this trip on good ground. She has shown some course affinity here though failed to finish on her only run at Listowel and has never won on this surface. The trainer holds a solid 11% strike rate at the track from 35 runs. Recent form reads 431022 and she will be held up from draw 8.
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11Bay Colony44/100
Bay Colony is a fair performer who has been below form on his last two starts after a promising 2023. He drops back from 1m6f to a trip at which he has placed once from three attempts, though he is 0-4 on good ground. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate here from 47 runs. Usually held up from stall 10, his recent form is 177-49.
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12Queen Of The Bogs42/100
Queen Of The Bogs is a fair performer who has shown steady placed form on her last two starts. Dropping back to 1m poses a fresh question after her latest effort over 1m1f and the wide draw in stall 12 is another negative. First-time headgear is now added while the trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Listowel is noted. She is the only front-runner in the field.
KTB verdict
Meriden is the KTB Selection. A useful performer who arrives in decent nick after a string of placed efforts, he has won on good ground and at this trip so the conditions look suitable enough despite the trainer's modest 6% strike-rate at Listowel from a big sample. His held-up style should see him delivered at the right time against a pace shape that features an uncontested lead. The main dangers are Cristal Clere, who has won at the track and now tries first-time headgear, and Qualixia, who brings strong recent form for a yard in form at the venue, though she is unproven on good ground. Jagged Edge and La Tulipe Noire are others who can feature if the race unfolds as expected.
KTB Selection Meriden
This is the narrative read of the 3:32 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Queen Of The Bogs, the only front-runner in the field with a medium-confidence run-style.
How many of the principals are held-up runners?
All five principals are held-up runners according to their run-styles.
Which horse is dropping back from the furthest distance?
La Tulipe Noire, dropping back from 2m1f.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Listowel among the principals?
Joseph Patrick O'Brien with a 17% strike rate at Listowel from 276 runs for Qualixia.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Cristal Clere and Queen Of The Bogs are both fitted with first-time headgear.
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