3:45 Bath
This Class 6 handicap over 2m1f24y at Bath on good ground features a field of 12 limited performers where the KTB Fit scores top out at a modest 64. The race lacks an obvious leader and is expected to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy could prove advantageous. Fram Castle heads the KTB Fit ratings as the selection after a recent course win, while the remainder bring modest recent form and questions about the step up in trip.
How the race shapes up
With no one obviously wanting the lead the pace is likely to be steady and tactical, rewarding those who can be positioned handily rather than too far back. Most of the field, including the top five in the KTB Fit order, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late off a slow gallop. The key question is whether any horse can quicken effectively off such a pace or whether the prominent Make A Splash can steal an uncontested advantage from the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Fram Castle KTB Selection64/100
Fram Castle is a limited horse who showed improved form when winning a 1m6f handicap here last time from a mark of 46. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.09 from 34 runs while the 7lb claimer Alexandra Egan has a 50% strike rate at the track from just two rides with an A/E of 3.02. He has one win from six starts on good ground with two placed efforts and has won here from one run. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his recent form reads 0-8231 and he carries the KTB Selection tag with a Fit score of 64.
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2Chillhi58/100
Chillhi is a limited horse who has been well beaten on his last two starts and looks vulnerable again from a mark that still looks stiff. He has shown some ability at this trip in the past without winning and handles good ground with two wins from 16 starts and three placed efforts. The trainer has a 13% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.89 from eight runs and a 25% strike rate when teaming up with this jockey from eight runs. The jockey has a 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.72 from 15 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his recent form reads 066-87 and he drops in class with a KTB Fit score of 58.
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3Simiyann50/100
Simiyann is a limited performer who has been placed a few times this year but remains winless in 43 starts. He steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous tries at this distance while his only success on good ground came back in 2022 from one win and one placed effort in nine runs. The trainer has a solid 12% strike-rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.86 from 163 runs and the jockey has an 11% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.63 from 27 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, his recent form reads 042335 and he has a KTB Fit score of 50.
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4Turton47/100
Turton is a limited horse who has shown very little in six runs this year. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.02 from 863 runs and when teaming up with this jockey they have a 13% strike rate with an A/E of 0.93 from 715 runs. The jockey has a 16% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.04 from 82 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his recent form reads 869569 and he has a KTB Fit score of 47.
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5Lady Lauren45/100
Lady Lauren is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and remains winless after 14 runs. She has placed once in three runs at Bath but has failed to land a blow on good ground from four runs without a win or place and now steps up markedly in trip for the first time. The trainer has a 15% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.09 from 149 runs and when teaming up with this jockey they have a 0% strike rate from six runs. The jockey has a 14% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.36 from 21 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, her recent form reads 650658 and she has a KTB Fit score of 45.
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6Cherry Cola44/100
Cherry Cola is a limited class performer who has been on the go for years and rarely wins. She has won once in 13 runs here at Bath and is placed on good ground from one win and six placed efforts in 19 starts, though her recent form of 65-864 shows little spark; the trainer has a 9% strike-rate at the track from 56 runs while the jockey has an 11% strike-rate from 35 rides and the step up to 2m1f is a fresh question.
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7Fornido44/100
Fornido is a limited performer who has been consistent rather than progressive, with six placed efforts from 15 starts but no wins to his name. He steps up in trip for the first time today while making his debut at Bath on ground he has never encountered; the trainer holds a solid 13% record here with an A/E of 1.13 from 159 runs but the jockey's strike-rate is below average at 7% with an A/E of 0.72 from 45 rides.
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8Cloudy Rose39/100
Cloudy Rose is a limited performer who has shown little spark in six runs at Bath and is stepping up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m4f. She has two wins from 15 starts on good ground with three placed efforts but her recent form of 454874 offers no encouragement and she remains winless in this class; the trainer has an 8% strike rate from 74 runs here while the jockey is 11% from 18 rides at the track.
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9La Trinite39/100
La Trinite is a limited performer on the balance of her 11 starts and recent form figures of 9-2335. She steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m4f and has shown no ability on good ground in three previous tries; the trainer has a 0% strike rate from five runs at Bath while the jockey is more established with a 15% strike rate from 245 rides here.
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10Make A Splash39/100
Make A Splash is a limited performer who has shown little in five runs to date and is up against it from a wide draw. The step up in trip poses a fresh question while the yard's modest 4% record at Bath offers no encouragement; the jockey has a solid 10% strike rate here from a large sample of 382 rides and he is the only prominent runner in the field.
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11Smith38/100
Smith has shown very little spark this year and remains a limited performer on his recent ratings and form. He has placed once over today's trip and was second on his only previous visit to Bath, but he is 0-6 on good ground and steps up in distance today; both trainer and jockey have modest 7% strike rates at the track from small samples.
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12N'Ion34/100
N'Ion is a limited performer who has shown very little in seven starts and steps up markedly in trip today. First-time headgear is reached for while the yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Bath from a big sample; the jockey is operating below course average with a 5% strike rate here from 207 rides.
KTB verdict
Fram Castle is the KTB Selection. He showed improved form when winning a 1m6f handicap here last time from a mark of 46 and the trainer has a solid record at the track while the claiming jockey is operating at a high strike rate on limited evidence. The step up in trip asks a fresh question of this held-up performer but he has the best recent form in the field and the highest KTB Fit score. His main dangers are likely to be Chillhi, who has shown ability at this trip in the past and drops in class, and Simiyann, who has been placed a few times this year despite remaining winless.
KTB Selection Fram Castle
This is the narrative read of the 3:45 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the only one to have won at this course previously?
Fram Castle has won here from one run to date and Cherry Cola has also won here from 13 runs.
How many of these runners are stepping up markedly in trip for the first time?
Fram Castle, Turton, Lady Lauren, Fornido, Cloudy Rose, La Trinite, Make A Splash, Smith and N'Ion are all stepping up markedly in trip.
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at Bath according to the supplied data?
Alexandra Egan has a 50% strike rate at Bath from two rides with an A/E of 3.02.
Who is the only prominent runner in the field?
Make A Splash is the only prominent runner, usually racing handily on or close to the lead.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
N'Ion is wearing first-time headgear.
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