4:30 Ayr
This Class 6 handicap over 7f50y at Ayr on good to soft ground brings together a field of 14 modest performers, several of whom are dropping in class. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Ey Up Its Jazz, Angela's Baar and Ice Cube separated by just two points, underlining how little separates many of these runners on the numbers. Course form and going suitability will be important factors, as will the ability to handle what is expected to be a strong pace.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up the pace shape is strongly positive and a strong gallop looks likely. Ey Up Its Jazz and Carmel Valley are both inclined to make the running or race prominently, while Kelpie Grey also tends to go forward. The key question is whether the pace collapses late, in which case the hold-up horses such as Ice Cube, Jet Warrior, Jkr Cobbler and Vince Le Prince will be well placed to capitalise.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Ey Up Its Jazz KTB Selection61/100
Ey Up Its Jazz is a modest performer who has won once from three starts at Ayr and holds a solid record of one win from four starts on good to soft ground. He drops back from a mile to a trip where he has won three times from 18 starts, though his recent form figures of 0-8680 are uninspiring. The Tony Coyle and Kaine Wood yard boasts a 44% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 3.06 from nine runs, while David Nolan has a 13% strike rate at Ayr from 298 rides. Drawn in stall 13, he tends to make the running or race on the pace and is the KTB Selection.
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2Angela's Baar60/100
Angela's Baar is a modest performer who has failed to land a blow in five runs this year and now drops back from a mile. The Adrian Keatley yard has a 19% strike rate at Ayr from 174 runs, while jockey M P Sheehy posts a 20% record from his 10 rides at the track. This represents his first visit to Ayr and he has no experience of good to soft ground, both of which add unknowns. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has limited evidence to go on but is rated just a point behind the selection on KTB Fit.
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3Ice Cube59/100
Ice Cube is a modest performer who has shown mixed form this year but did win a similar race over this trip last time out. He has handled good to soft ground in the past without placing though the sample is small, and he now makes his first visit to Ayr from stall 10. The Richard Spencer yard records a 13% strike rate at the track, while Saffie Osborne has a 33% strike rate at Ayr from three rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is another who could be suited if the strong pace collapses.
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4Jet Warrior54/100
Jet Warrior is a modest performer who won on his only previous visit to Ayr and has placed once at this trip. His recent form is patchy with a win and two places mixed in with three poor efforts, while he has failed to place in two runs on good to soft ground. The Lawrence Mullaney yard has a modest 6% strike rate at Ayr from 17 runs but Alistair Rawlinson fares better with a 15% record from 26 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he drops in class from stall 8.
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5Jkr Cobbler53/100
Jkr Cobbler is a limited performer who has won five times at Ayr from 20 runs and also boasts a solid record on good to soft ground with four wins from nine starts. He has won at this trip too though his recent form is mixed and he is now 7lb higher than his last success. The Iain Jardine yard has an 11% strike rate at the track, while claiming jockey Jack Nicholls has a 9% record from 22 rides at Ayr. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is respected on his course record.
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6Highfield Viking53/100
Highfield Viking is a modest performer who has won once here from five runs and is three from 29 at this trip. He has placed four times from five starts on good to soft but is winless on the surface and his recent form of 50908 is poor. The yard’s modest record at Ayr tempers enthusiasm while the jockey’s solid 13 percent strike rate here offers some encouragement.
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7Carmel Valley52/100
Carmel Valley is a modest performer who has shown some ability here without winning, finishing placed on two of four starts at Ayr. Consistent rather than progressive on recent form and has yet to place on good to soft ground. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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8Vince Le Prince51/100
Vince Le Prince is a modest performer who has been placed a few times this year without winning. He has won at this trip in the past but his record at Ayr is ordinary and he has never placed here in three runs. The yard and jockey both have solid enough records at the track though he is only placed once from eight starts on good to soft. Usually held up.
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9Dacres Cross50/100
Dacres Cross is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. Drops back from a mile to a trip at which he has placed once in three attempts though he remains unproven on good to soft ground. Kevin Ryan and Kevin Stott both have solid records at Ayr.
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10Kelpie Grey47/100
Kelpie Grey is a limited performer who has won twice at Ayr from 19 starts but whose recent form is poor with a string of unplaced efforts. Drops back from a mile to a trip he has won at before and tries headgear for the first time. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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11Blufferonthebus43/100
Blufferonthebus is a modest performer with a solid recent record that includes two placed efforts from his last six starts. Drops back to a trip he has won over before though he has failed to place in six runs on good to soft ground. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 10% strike rate here at Ayr.
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12Saxon Prince42/100
Saxon Prince is a modest performer who has been below form on his last two starts and now steps up in trip for the first time. He has shown nothing on good to soft ground in one previous run and the wide draw in stall 14 adds to the difficulties. The yard’s modest record here is offset by Clifford Lee’s solid 14% strike rate at Ayr.
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13Keep Me Stable39/100
Keep Me Stable is a limited performer who has won once in 7 runs at Ayr and also knows how to win at this trip from 38 attempts. Recent form is ordinary and the yard's modest 6% strike-rate at the track adds little encouragement. Jockey is similarly low-key here with a 6% record from 79 rides.
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14Cavallo Pazzo35/100
Cavallo Pazzo is a limited performer who has struggled at this track in four previous runs and never looked like winning. Drops back from a mile to a trip he has won at in the past but his recent form is poor and the yard's modest record here offers little encouragement. Jockey's own strike-rate at Ayr is similarly low.
KTB verdict
Ey Up Its Jazz is the KTB Selection. He is a modest performer with a good record at Ayr, including a win from three starts, and has solid form on good to soft ground. Dropping in class and back to a trip where he has won three times from 18 starts, he is expected to make the running or race prominently in a race with a strong pace likely. The main dangers are the hold-up performers who could benefit if the pace collapses, particularly Ice Cube who won a similar race last time out, and Jkr Cobbler who has won five times at the track.
KTB Selection Ey Up Its Jazz
This is the narrative read of the 4:30 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Ayr?
Jkr Cobbler has won five times at Ayr from 20 runs.
How many front-runners are there and what does this mean for the race shape?
Two or more habitual front-runners are present, making a strong pace likely that could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which runners are dropping in class?
Ey Up Its Jazz, Ice Cube, Jet Warrior, Carmel Valley, Vince Le Prince, Dacres Cross, Blufferonthebus, Saxon Prince and Keep Me Stable are all dropping in class.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at Ayr among the principals?
Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood have a 44% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 3.06 from nine runs.
Which horses are unproven on good to soft ground?
Angela's Baar, Dacres Cross and Carmel Valley have no experience or are unproven on good to soft ground.
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