4:42 Windsor
This Class 6 handicap over 1m3f99y at Windsor on good ground brings together an eleven-runner field of limited performers, several of whom are dropping in class or trying new trips and headgear. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Shabu Shabu just heading the numbers on 58, followed closely by Time After Time on 56 and Electric Bass on 53. Overall the race looks modest, with little depth and several runners arriving in ordinary form, though the pace shape points to an uncontested lead that could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that may prove difficult for closers to overcome. Offiah's Boy is the only front-runner in the field and is likely to be allowed an easy time up front from his draw in stall two. The remainder of the field, including the selection Shabu Shabu, are almost all held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts from off the pace in the straight, raising the key question of whether any of them can bridge the gap to a horse given a soft lead.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Shabu Shabu KTB Selection58/100
Shabu Shabu is a limited horse who has struggled since a promising start to his career and arrives here in modest form, as evidenced by his recent figures of 20-607. He steps up in trip having already won over this distance in the past and has shown he handles good ground, with one win from two runs on it. The trainer has a solid recent record at Windsor with a 10% strike rate and an A/E of 1.59 from 10 runs, though the jockey's 10% strike rate and A/E of 0.68 from 91 rides is more modest. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right given the uncontested lead up front. Overall he has enough in his favour on balance to be the selection.
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2Time After Time56/100
Time After Time is a limited performer who has not won for a long time and now looks stretched by this longer trip for the first time. His recent form reads 5-0648 and he is dropping in class, which may help. Good ground clearly suits, with two wins from four runs on it. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Windsor from 109 runs is offset by the jockey's stronger 16% record and A/E of 1.42 from 160 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be coming from off the pace in a race where the leader could get an easy time.
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3Electric Bass53/100
Electric Bass is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place on four of his last five starts without winning, as his figures of -22534 show. He has shown some ability at this trip and was placed over course and distance on his only visit to Windsor, finishing second. First-time headgear is now applied in a bid to sharpen him up. Both trainer and jockey have solid records at the track, with the trainer on 9% strike rate and A/E 0.82 from 185 runs, and the jockey on 12% and A/E 0.93 from 334 rides. Usually held up, he will need to find extra from off the pace against a likely clear leader.
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4Artavian51/100
Artavian is a limited performer who has won once here from five runs at Windsor and is dropping back to a trip he has won over in the past. His recent form of 2-7367 has been modest. He has never won without headgear, so the first-time visor represents an unknown. The trainer and jockey both have below-average strike rates at Windsor, the trainer at 7% with A/E 0.69 from 285 runs and the jockey at 9% with A/E 0.82 from 657 rides. Usually held up with medium confidence in that assessment, he will be another chasing the likely lone leader from the rear.
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5Offiah's Boy50/100
Offiah's Boy is a limited horse who has shown mixed form this year, with figures of 562135. He has won twice at today's trip but is 0-7 on good ground and has failed to win or place in three runs at Windsor. The yard's modest strike rate here of 11% with A/E 1.01 from 36 runs offers little encouragement, and Taylor Fisher has a similar record at the track with 9% and A/E 0.75 from 45 rides. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and is the one likely to secure the uncontested lead that the pace shape suggests will be hard to peg back, though his lack of effectiveness on good ground is a concern.
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6Jimmy Mark45/100
Jimmy Mark is a limited horse who has shown his best form over shorter trips and has been placed twice from four runs at Windsor. He steps up in trip today for the first time in a while having won once at this distance in the past. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Windsor from a small sample of four runs while the jockey operates at a 7% strike rate from 288 rides at the track.
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7Crazy Plan44/100
Crazy Plan is a limited performer who has shown minor promise on his last two starts, finishing second in a pair of weak handicaps. He drops back in trip today having not tried this exact distance before. The jockey has a solid 16% strike rate at Windsor from 368 rides while the trainer's record here is too small to judge from just two runs.
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8Amalou43/100
Amalou is a limited performer who has shown very little in four starts to date. First-time headgear is now fitted in a drop back in trip that asks a fresh question. The yard has a solid 16% strike rate at Windsor from 56 runs but the jockey's record here is more modest at 9% from 209 rides.
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9Churchill's Spirit43/100
Churchill's Spirit is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in seven starts and drops back in trip today having failed to make an impact over this distance on his one previous attempt. First-time headgear is now tried in a bid to spark improvement. The trainer holds a solid 16% strike rate at Windsor from 101 runs while jockey Laura Pearson is operating at 21% from 34 rides here.
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10Madame Passant37/100
Madame Passant is a limited performer who has shown only modest form in six starts and finished no better than fourth. She has been beaten a long way on both previous visits to Windsor and the yard has failed to land a blow from 13 runs here. Stepping up in trip for the first time today asks a fresh question of a horse that still has plenty to prove.
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11Keeper Of Secrets35/100
Keeper Of Secrets is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in recent starts and now steps up in trip having shown little at 1m last time. This is his first run at Windsor and he is unproven on good ground. The trainer records a modest 8% strike-rate here from 250 runs while the jockey fares better at 17% from 121 rides.
KTB verdict
Shabu Shabu is the KTB Selection. He is a limited sort who has not been in the best of form recently but steps up to a trip over which he has already won and handles the good ground. The trainer's solid recent record at Windsor adds to the appeal, and with so many held-up types in the field he may be able to capitalise if the likely lone leader sets an uneven pace. The main dangers are Time After Time, who drops in class and is well served by the jockey's record here, and Electric Bass, who has been consistently placed of late and has course form, though the first-time headgear adds a layer of uncertainty. Artavian and Offiah's Boy, the latter of whom could get an easy lead, are others to consider in a modest event.
KTB Selection Shabu Shabu
This is the narrative read of the 4:42 Windsor. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Windsor racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Windsor results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Offiah's Boy is the only front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the principals are wearing headgear for the first time?
Three of the top five principals are wearing first-time headgear: Electric Bass, Artavian and Offiah's Boy is not, but Electric Bass and Artavian are.
Which horse has the best recent placing record without a win?
Electric Bass has placed on four of his last five starts.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Windsor among the principals?
Marco Ghiani has a 16% strike rate at Windsor with an A/E of 1.42 from 160 rides, riding Time After Time.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Windsor among those with over 50 runs?
Tom Clover has a 16% strike rate at Windsor from 101 runs, training Churchill's Spirit.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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