5:35 Beverley
This Class 6 end-of-season handicap over 1m100y at Beverley on good ground brings together an eleven-strong field of largely modest three-year-olds. The KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive but unspectacular contest, with Buckland Belle heading the numbers on 69, followed by Amber Hamur on 59 and Snaafy on 55, while the remainder sit between 53 and 34. Overall the KTB assessments suggest a race where consistency, track affinity and the ability to handle a strong pace will be key.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, as multiple habitual front-runners including Amber Hamur, Blue Mantle and Elizabetty are set to contest the lead early. This shape is likely to test those up with the pace and could lead to a late collapse, playing into the hands of hold-up performers. The key question is whether the prominent and front-running types can dictate terms or if the race will fall apart in the closing stages, allowing late closers to capitalise.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Buckland Belle KTB Selection69/100
Buckland Belle is a modest performer who has been busy and largely consistent this season, as her recent form figures of 221321 indicate. She boasts three wins from nine starts at today's trip and has already shown her effectiveness on good ground with one win from a single attempt. The Ollie Sangster yard posts a 46% strike rate at Beverley from 13 runs, though this represents her first visit to the track after 15 starts elsewhere so that element remains an unknown. Daniel Tudhope takes the ride with the pair combining at a 4/17 (24%) strike rate and A/E 0.94. As a usual hold-up performer she is well suited by the expected strong pace that could collapse late.
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2Amber Hamur59/100
Amber Hamur is another modest performer who has already displayed his liking for Beverley by finishing second on his only visit to the track. He has won twice from three starts on good ground and holds a solid record of two wins from three attempts at today's trip, though he drops back from 1m1f on his most recent outing. The Edward Bethell yard records an 18% strike rate at this venue from 67 runs, giving him clear course appeal. Connor Beasley is in the saddle as the colt tends to make the running or race prominently, which could be a double-edged sword given the forecast strong pace.
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3Snaafy55/100
Snaafy is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning often, registering one success at this trip from seven attempts. He drops back in trip today after his last run over further and has shown he handles good ground from his one start on the surface. The David Loughnane stable holds a 17% strike rate at Beverley from 89 runs, while Kevin Stott brings an 17% strike rate at the track from 300 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Snaafy should be favoured by the anticipated strong pace and possible late collapse.
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4Blue Mantle53/100
Blue Mantle is a modest performer who has shown some ability on his better days but has been below form on his last two starts. He steps up in trip today having failed to make an impact in his only previous run at this distance. Dropping in class is a positive, and the Charlie Johnston yard posts a 16% strike rate at Beverley from 154 runs. Callum Shepherd is booked and the colt tends to make the running or race on the pace, a style that will be tested by the strong pace likely in this race while he remains unproven on good ground.
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5Dalamara51/100
Dalamara is a modest performer who has won once on good ground from three tries and also holds a win at today's trip from four attempts. She drops back from 1m2f today having shown mixed form in recent starts that include a win and a fourth. The Ben Haslam yard operates at a 7% strike rate from 75 runs at Beverley, with Andrew Mullen taking the ride at a 6% strike rate from 411 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she looks suited by the forecast strong pace that could favour hold-up horses.
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6Only Dream Big50/100
Only Dream Big is a modest performer with a mixed record this year and a recent sequence that shows ability but no real consistency. He steps up to 1m for the first time in a while having already won at the trip earlier in his career, while he has two wins from nine starts on good ground and is dropping in class.
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7Elizabetty48/100
Elizabetty is a modest performer who has been well below form on her last three starts after a 7f win earlier this season. She steps up in trip for the first time today having shown only modest form over this distance on her one previous attempt, while first-time headgear is now applied and she is dropping in class.
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8Pilgrim's Progress47/100
Pilgrim's Progress is a modest performer who has shown steady placed form this year but has failed to build on it in two starts since. He steps up markedly in trip today having looked stretched at 6f last time, which asks a fresh question of him, and he is dropping in class.
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9Turtle Reef46/100
Turtle Reef is a modest performer who has shown little since a promising third on handicap debut at this track in May. He has failed to build on that in two runs since and is now 0-4 at this trip while dropping in class.
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10Horwich43/100
Horwich is a limited horse who has been struggling for form all year with a string of modest efforts. He drops back in trip today having failed to make an impact at this distance in two previous tries and now makes a first appearance at Beverley.
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11Itszaboy34/100
Itszaboy is a limited performer who has shown little spark in ten runs this year and has failed to place in either visit to Beverley. He has managed a couple of placed efforts at this trip but has looked modest on good ground and is up against stronger opposition in this field.
KTB verdict
Buckland Belle is the KTB Selection. She is a largely consistent modest performer with three wins from nine starts at this trip, a proven liking for good ground and the benefit of a yard that strikes at 46% at Beverley. Her hold-up style is perfectly placed for the strong pace that is expected to test those up front and potentially collapse late. Main dangers include Amber Hamur, who has already shown his liking for the track and holds strong figures on good ground, and Snaafy, whose late-run style should also be suited by the shape while his trainer performs solidly here.
KTB Selection Buckland Belle
This is the narrative read of the 5:35 Beverley. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Beverley racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Beverley results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Buckland Belle is a usual hold-up performer who produces her effort late and should be favoured by the strong pace that could collapse.
How many wins has Buckland Belle recorded at this trip?
Buckland Belle has three wins from nine starts at today's trip.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Beverley in this field?
Ollie Sangster has a 46% strike rate at Beverley from 13 runs.
What is Amber Hamur's course record at Beverley?
Amber Hamur has run once here, finishing second with no win.
Why might the race collapse late?
The pace shape indicates a strong pace with two or more habitual front-runners, which could lead to a late collapse favouring hold-up horses.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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