Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.57).
Deterministic profile computed from 108 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 3.6%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.7%+4.9
n=13 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −6.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
14.3%+11.5
n=7 · A/E 3.58 · £1 −0.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.8
n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.8
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.8
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
0%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.6%+0.8
n=55 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −41.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.8
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m5f – 2m0% vs 2.8% · n=45
Over 2m1f – 2m4f5.1% vs 2.8% · n=39
With a new jockey booking1.7% vs 2.8% · n=58 · A/E 0.46
With claiming riders up3.6% vs 2.8% · n=55 · A/E 0.64
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle7633.9%−55.50
Chase2400%−24.00
NH Flat700%−7.00
Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft3912.6%−32.50
Good2813.6%−20.50
Heavy2600%−26.00
Good to Soft1516.7%−8.50
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Tramore1500%−15.00
Clonmel1000%−10.00
Punchestown10110%−3.50
Wexford900%−9.00
Gowran Park700%−7.00
Thurles700%−7.00
Limerick700%−7.00
Cork6116.7%+1.50
Galway600%−6.00
Fairyhouse500%−5.00
Killarney5120%+1.50
Kilbeggan300%−3.00
Roscommon300%−3.00
Naas300%−3.00
Leopardstown300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite300%0.00−3.00
2nd–3rd fav15213.3%1.10−1.00
4th–6th fav2514%0.60−18.50
7th+ in betting6500%0.00−65.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m4500%−45.00
2m1f – 2m4f3925.1%−25.00
2m5f – 3m2214.5%−15.50
Over 3m200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2017300%−3.00
20181100%−11.00
2019300%−3.00
2022800%−8.00
2023400%−4.00
20242015%−12.50
20253313%−26.50
20262613.8%−19.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps4936.1%−28.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners3026.7%−17.00
14-16 runners3000%−30.00
17+ runners2314.3%−15.50
8-10 runners1800%−18.00
5-7 runners600%−6.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 21 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 21 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive; 15 had their first archived run for this yard.
2 have since run for another yard; 19 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
8000170000090
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 9.8% of 2,372 runs since 2011 (226 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 14.5% from 387. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.6% from 349.
Progeny have won 8.2% of 2,217 runs since 2018 (226 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.6% from 241.
Morozov (USA)0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 10.8% of 2,316 runs since 2009 (155 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 434.
Califet (FR)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,809 runs since 2008 (399 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 108 · newest first
The latest 50 of 108 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 18 September 2017 to 12 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Bernard Martin Crowley's strike rate?
Bernard Martin Crowley has won 3 of 108 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.8% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Bernard Martin Crowley in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Bernard Martin Crowley's Fair A/E?
0.57, from 108 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Bernard Martin Crowley·SR 2.8%·A/E 0.57
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