Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
15.4%+6.0
n=26 · A/E 3.28 · £1 +43.30
New recruits · first run for the yard
14.3%+4.9
n=14 · A/E 2.91 · £1 +32.90
Debutants · first career start
11.1%+1.7
n=18 · A/E 1.58 · £1 −7.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−9.4
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−9.4
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
0%
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−9.4
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
12.5%+3.1
n=8 · A/E 2.44 · £1 +7.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With a new jockey booking12.3% vs 9.4% · n=57
At Deauville (FR)12.2% vs 9.4% · n=41
In Flat races9.4% vs 9.4% · n=85 · A/E 1.17
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)47510.6%+24.60
Good to Soft1300%−12.00
Good10220%+3.00
Soft10110%−5.00
Heavy400%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)41512.2%+34.10
Chantilly (FR)20315%−7.50
Saint-Cloud (FR)1000%−9.00
Clairefontaine (FR)300%−3.00
Longchamp (FR)200%−2.00
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)200%−1.00
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)200%−2.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)100%−1.00
Strasbourg (FR)100%—
Granville-St Pair Sur Mer (FR)100%—
Vichy (FR)100%−1.00
Compiegne (FR)100%—
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 18112.5%+7.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite400%0.00−4.00
2nd–3rd fav11218.2%1.24+4.90
4th–6th fav16212.5%1.65+3.80
7th+ in betting4324.7%1.37+2.90
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f4249.5%−10.80
6f – 7f2015%−10.50
1m2f – 1m4f18316.7%+32.90
1m5f – 2m400%−4.00
Under 6f100%—
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200811218.2%−1.00
2010200%−2.00
20184125%+3.50
201910110%+0.00
202018316.7%+32.20
20213013.3%−15.10
2022800%−8.00
2023200%−2.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps48510.4%+11.70
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners4249.5%+15.70
8-10 runners1218.3%+0.00
17+ runners1100%−11.00
11-13 runners10110%+6.90
5-7 runners600%−4.00
2-4 runners4250%—
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 32 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 32 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Y Barberot (2); 20 had their first archived run for this yard.
18 have since run for another yard, most often for S Cerulis (3) and P Lacroix (2); 14 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
000014010130253011
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Joplin (GER) — Qatar Prix de la Calonne - Fonds Europeen de l'Elevage () (4yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Str) Deauville (FR) · Jul 2019 · Listed
Progeny have won 8.6% of 1,738 runs since 2008 (211 horses).
My Risk (FR)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 10.2% of 973 runs since 2008 (148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.5% from 110. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.9% from 287. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 17.8% from 129. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5% from 140.
Areion (GER)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 10.7% of 1,314 runs since 2008 (177 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.6% from 144.
Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,698 runs since 2008 (528 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6% from 184.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 30 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 95 · newest first
The latest 50 of 95 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 April 2005 to 28 January 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is D Fechner's strike rate?
D Fechner has won 8 of 85 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.4% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does D Fechner do best at?
Deauville (FR) by strike rate: 5 wins from 41 runners (12.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is D Fechner's Fair A/E?
1.17, from 74 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
D Fechner·SR 9.4%·A/E 1.17
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