Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 70 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 5% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.04).
Deterministic profile computed from 1,292 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Aug–Sep35.9% when favouritePhillip Enright: 5.2% from 329Sends off the favourite in 3% of races
The read
It is weakest at Galway (0% over 38 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=94, Fair A/E 0.00). Phillip Enright rides 25% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (5.2%, A/E 1.02) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (8.4%, n=346). The record reads poorly in NH Flat races — 0% over 40 runners, 5.4pts below the baseline. 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Frontline Security Handicap Chase at Punchestown (Apr 2026, £44,175). The stable star of the record: Nobody Home (IRE) — 6 wins from 65 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Aug–Sep.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.9%−0.5
n=412 · A/E 1.19 · £1 −174.75
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.4
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.4
n=94 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −94.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
3.9%−1.5
n=77 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −52.12
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
6.7%+1.3
n=75 · A/E 1.28 · £1 −15.00
When favourite
35.9%
n=39 · A/E 1.86 · £1 +14.13
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.1%−0.3
n=583 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −287.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
6.1%+0.7
n=66 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −45.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With debutants0% vs 5.4% · n=94
In NH Flat races0% vs 5.4% · n=40
At Galway0% vs 5.4% · n=38
At Thurles0% vs 5.4% · n=36
With Adam Short0% vs 5.4% · n=36
Off a 15-30-day break8.4% vs 5.4% · n=346
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle917465%−489.67
Chase330247.3%−84.62
NH Flat4000%−40.00
Flat500%−5.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft611304.9%−341.87
Heavy349226.3%−124.42
Good193126.2%−63.50
Good to Soft11054.5%−64.00
Good to Firm2514%−21.50
Firm400%−4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Fairyhouse231198.2%−41.92
Navan15374.6%−85.00
Punchestown12375.7%−70.50
Naas8433.6%−65.00
Sligo7456.8%−12.50
Limerick6334.8%−36.50
Cork5935.1%−39.50
Leopardstown5723.5%−30.50
Ballinrobe5323.8%−30.50
Down Royal4824.2%−18.00
Kilbeggan4636.5%−18.00
Clonmel3825.3%−13.25
Galway3800%−38.00
Thurles3600%−36.00
Roscommon28310.7%−11.12
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 15935.1%−45.00
Class 410220%+11.00
Class 3700%−7.00
Class 5400%−4.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite561526.8%1.50+3.13
2nd–3rd fav1361712.5%0.98−34.92
4th–6th fav250208%1.13−49.50
7th+ in betting850182.1%0.81−538.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f536254.7%−289.67
2m5f – 3m374297.8%−80.87
1m5f – 2m342144.1%−218.75
Over 3m4025%−30.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20085811.7%−56.00
20097933.8%−41.00
20106269.7%−4.00
20117211.4%−59.00
20125835.2%−26.50
20135535.5%−23.50
201459610.2%−15.37
20155359.4%−6.75
20165335.7%−32.50
20175535.5%−11.00
20189266.5%−26.00
20196334.8%−43.50
20208633.5%−71.67
20217211.4%−62.50
20227956.3%−41.00
2023109109.2%+28.50
20247822.6%−63.50
20256434.7%−35.50
20264536.7%−28.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps837678%−196.04
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
17+ runners439153.4%−300.50
14-16 runners421194.5%−235.92
11-13 runners260218.1%−45.00
8-10 runners145149.7%−17.87
5-7 runners2613.8%−19.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 118 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 56 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 59 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
376862577627
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
75
Archived wins
4
Pattern / graded wins
£1.23m
Prize money
2023
Best season · 10 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Come Walk With Me (IRE) — Frontline Security Handicap Chase (Listed) Punchestown · Apr 2026 · Listed
£44,175
Forever Gold (IRE) — Bar One Racing Porterstown Handicap Chase (Grade B) Fairyhouse · Dec 2016 · Grade B
£29,500
Come Walk With Me (IRE) — BOYLE Sports Novice Handicap Chase (Listed) Fairyhouse · Apr 2026 · Listed
Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,777 runs since 2008 (221 horses). Strongest on Good going: 11.8% from 944. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 182. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 4% from 150.
Gold Well (GB)7.4% · 8–108
Progeny have won 12.2% of 5,648 runs since 2011 (363 horses).
Progeny have won 6.5% of 588 runs since 2015 (61 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 2.4% from 166.
Trans Island (GB)9.2% · 6–65
Progeny have won 9% of 4,743 runs since 2008 (295 horses).
Brian Boru (GB)8.1% · 5–62
Progeny have won 11% of 4,124 runs since 2009 (285 horses).
Oscar (IRE)7% · 3–43
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,432 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,432 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 January 2005 to 28 September 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Edward Cawley's strike rate?
Edward Cawley has won 70 of 1,292 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.4% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Edward Cawley do best at?
Fairyhouse by strike rate: 19 wins from 231 runners (8.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Edward Cawley?
Phillip Enright, with 329 runners since 2008 — 25% of the total. That pairing has won 17 (5.2%).
What is Edward Cawley's Fair A/E?
1.04, from 1,292 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Edward Cawley·SR 5.4%·A/E 1.04
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