Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 4% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.03).
Deterministic profile computed from 114 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 24 Oct 2026
The read
The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (8.6%, n=35). The record reads poorly on Good going — 0% over 39 runners, 4.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m5f – 2m: Fair A/E 0.53 across 50 runners (2% strike, −29.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−4.4
n=26 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −26.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.4
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.4
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.4
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.4
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.5%−0.9
n=57 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −39.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Good going0% vs 4.4% · n=39
Off a 15-30-day break8.6% vs 4.4% · n=35
With a new jockey booking1.3% vs 4.4% · n=78
Over 1m5f – 2m2% vs 4.4% · n=50
With claiming riders up3.5% vs 4.4% · n=57 · A/E 0.84
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle7633.9%−26.00
Chase20210%+10.50
NH Flat1600%−16.00
Flat200%−2.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft4224.8%−13.00
Good3900%−39.00
Heavy18211.1%+12.50
Good to Soft1218.3%+9.00
Good to Firm300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Clonmel15213.3%+15.50
Tramore1300%−13.00
Cork1218.3%−4.00
Wexford1100%−11.00
Thurles10220%+32.00
Punchestown900%−9.00
Fairyhouse800%−8.00
Limerick700%−7.00
Kilbeggan500%−5.00
Tipperary400%−4.00
Wexford300%−3.00
Roscommon300%−3.00
Killarney300%−3.00
Navan200%−2.00
Gowran Park200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite4125%1.55+4.00
2nd–3rd fav600%0.00−6.00
4th–6th fav2813.6%0.50−18.50
7th+ in betting7633.9%1.96−13.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m5012%−29.00
2m1f – 2m4f4224.8%−13.00
2m5f – 3m19210.5%+11.50
Over 3m300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2009100%−1.00
2010100%−1.00
2012500%−5.00
2015200%−2.00
2016400%−4.00
201716212.5%+13.00
20181500%−15.00
20221317.7%+8.00
20232114.8%−11.50
20241900%−19.00
20251218.3%+9.00
2026500%−5.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps5347.5%+6.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners3900%−39.00
11-13 runners2713.7%−6.00
17+ runners27311.1%+23.00
8-10 runners1400%−14.00
5-7 runners7114.3%+2.50
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 19 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 19 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 15 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 18 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
000250006001313
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,351 runs since 2008 (605 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 24 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 126 · newest first
The latest 50 of 126 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 29 January 2005 to 5 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Eric Larkin's strike rate?
Eric Larkin has won 5 of 114 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.4% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Eric Larkin's Fair A/E?
1.03, from 114 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Eric Larkin·SR 4.4%·A/E 1.03
1Tap Share in the toolbar2Scroll down the sheet3Tap Add to Home Screen, then Add
1Open your browser's menu (the three dots)2Tap Add to Home screen or Install app
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy