F Belmont
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.81). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 12% off breaks of two months or more (116 runs).
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 12.1% (n=116, Fair A/E 1.43), but runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 5.1% (n=78, Fair A/E 0.63). Sylvain Dupuis rides 27% of the entries and edges the yard's average (13.4% vs 9.1%, A/E 0.67). The record reads poorly over 6f – 7f — 0% over 31 runners, 9.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m – 1m1f: Fair A/E 0.62 across 73 runners (4.1% strike, −56.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 8 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Prix Gaston Branere at Auteuil (FR) (Apr 2011, £36,853). Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.1% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleWhen the yard fires
strike by month, lifetimeJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 454 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 454 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 17 April 2005 to 7 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is F Belmont's strike rate?
- F Belmont has won 38 of 417 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does F Belmont do best at?
- Auteuil (FR) by strike rate: 19 wins from 159 runners (11.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Who rides most for F Belmont?
- Sylvain Dupuis, with 112 runners since 2008 — 27% of the total. That pairing has won 15 (13.4%).
- Is F Belmont in form?
- Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is F Belmont's Fair A/E?
- 0.81, from 374 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.