Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sent out around 20 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.69).
Deterministic profile computed from 174 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
The read
It is weakest at Maisons-Laffitte (FR) (0% over 34 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 3.8% (n=52, Fair A/E 0.78). The record read poorly off a 61-180-day break — 2.6% over 38 runners, 7.2pts below the baseline. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Prix Servanne at Chantilly (FR) (Apr 2007, £27,027).
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.8%−6.0
n=52 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −26.60
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−9.8
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Debutants · first career start
20.7%+10.9
n=29 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
6.3%−3.5
n=16 · A/E 1.61 · £1 +0.10
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−9.8
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 +3.20
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.1%−2.7
n=14 · A/E 1.42 · £1 −1.80
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
10%+0.2
n=10 · A/E 1.76 · £1 −3.80
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
At Maisons-Laffitte (FR)0% vs 9.8% · n=34
Off a 61-180-day break2.6% vs 9.8% · n=38
On Good to Soft going12.2% vs 9.8% · n=41
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good47510.6%−16.60
Good to Soft41512.2%+2.70
Soft37410.8%−28.30
Standard (AW)3638.3%+5.00
Heavy1300%−11.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)4149.8%+1.00
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)3400%−32.00
Longchamp (FR)2827.1%−12.50
Saint-Cloud (FR)2214.5%−8.90
Chantilly (FR)1616.3%−14.00
Fontainebleau400%−1.00
Angers300%—
Nantes300%−2.00
Saint-Malo200%−1.00
Vichy2150%+18.00
Durtal2150%+3.70
Machecoul200%—
Segre22100%+2.80
Le Lion-D'Angers100%−1.00
Toulouse (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 110110%−3.80
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite10440%1.26+11.50
2nd–3rd fav2129.5%0.47+11.60
4th–6th fav3937.7%1.01−8.50
7th+ in betting8011.3%0.36−62.80
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f70710%−15.70
1m – 1m1f5559.1%−17.50
6f – 7f25416%+1.80
1m5f – 2m1700%−17.00
Under 6f7114.3%+0.20
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20084125%−2.00
20094125%—
201055814.5%+0.30
20114824.2%−29.90
201228310.7%+8.00
20132827.1%−17.60
2014700%−7.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps10854.6%−63.40
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners6323.2%−38.70
17+ runners4824.2%−21.50
2-4 runners23834.8%+25.20
5-7 runners15213.3%−2.80
8-10 runners1218.3%+0.60
11-13 runners1100%−11.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 45 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 45 horses listed, 16 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from A Fabre (6) and A De Royer-Dupre (4); 29 had their first archived run for this yard.
23 have since run for another yard, most often for C Le Lay (3) and J Parize (2); 22 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
00021617101455811
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
25
Archived wins
2
Pattern / graded wins
£463k
Prize money
2010
Best season · 8 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 13.7% of 11,842 runs since 2008 (983 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.8% from 101. Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 428. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.1% from 209.
Marchand De Sable (USA)7.7% · 1–13
Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,093 runs since 2008 (128 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.2% from 167. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.8% from 148.
Halling (USA)8.3% · 1–12
Progeny have won 11% of 6,095 runs since 2008 (409 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.8% from 187.
Monsun (GER)0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 15.8% of 2,243 runs since 2008 (250 horses). Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 19.6% from 276. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.3% from 150.
Selkirk (USA)18.2% · 2–11
Progeny have won 11.3% of 4,371 runs since 2008 (333 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 228. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.7% from 143.
Tiger Hill (IRE)0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 9.5% of 3,823 runs since 2008 (360 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 213 · newest first
The latest 50 of 213 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 March 2005 to 19 May 2014.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is G Henrot's strike rate?
G Henrot has won 17 of 174 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does G Henrot do best at?
Deauville (FR) by strike rate: 4 wins from 41 runners (9.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is G Henrot's Fair A/E?
0.69, from 140 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
G Henrot·SR 9.8%·A/E 0.69
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