Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.9%−3.6
n=34 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −13.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.5
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.5
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.5
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
When favourite
100%
n=1 · A/E 3.40 · £1 +2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.5%+0.0
n=31 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −1.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Hurdle races2% vs 6.5% · n=49
In Class 43.1% vs 6.5% · n=32
In Class 58.9% vs 6.5% · n=45
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle4912%−28.00
Chase28414.3%+30.50
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good3126.5%−19.50
Good to Soft1915.3%+2.00
Soft1200%−12.00
Good to Firm8112.5%+18.00
Heavy7114.3%+14.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Taunton2129.5%+21.00
Wincanton18211.1%−6.50
Exeter1300%−13.00
Newton Abbot8112.5%+18.00
Kempton400%−4.00
Warwick300%−3.00
Stratford200%−2.00
Ffos Las200%−2.00
Hereford200%−2.00
Plumpton100%−1.00
Chepstow100%−1.00
Fontwell100%−1.00
Lingfield100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 54548.9%+8.50
Class 43213.1%−6.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite2150%2.31+1.00
2nd–3rd fav900%0.00−9.00
4th–6th fav1317.7%1.20−4.50
7th+ in betting5335.7%1.96+15.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f4324.7%−13.50
2m5f – 3m1715.9%+4.00
1m5f – 2m15213.3%+14.00
Over 3m200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20084125%+22.00
2009300%−3.00
2010100%−1.00
2011200%−2.00
2012400%−4.00
20131119.1%+10.00
2014200%−2.00
2015700%−7.00
2016600%−6.00
2017200%−2.00
2018600%−6.00
2020300%−3.00
2021600%−6.00
2022400%−4.00
20234125%+4.50
20246116.7%+15.00
2025300%−3.00
20263133.3%+0.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps7057.1%+9.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners2713.7%−6.00
8-10 runners1915.3%+7.00
14-16 runners1715.9%+4.00
5-7 runners10220%+1.50
17+ runners300%−3.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 9 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 9 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive.
2 have since run for another yard; 7 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0001503300·0209
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
My Rockstar (IRE) — Mike Trickey And Geoff White Memorial Handicap Chase Taunton · Nov 2024 · Class 5
£5,968
My Rockstar (IRE) — Chard Novices' Handicap Chase Wincanton · Apr 2023 · Class 5
£4,753
Humid Climate (GB) — Beatrice May 90th Birthday Handicap Chase Newton Abbot · Jun 2008 · Class 4
Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,443 runs since 2008 (157 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7% from 343.
Dubai Destination (USA)5.3% · 1–19
Progeny have won 11% of 6,950 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.9% from 136.
Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE)0% · 0–14
Progeny have won 9.8% of 11,566 runs since 2008 (872 horses).
Mull Of Kintyre (USA)0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 9% of 2,100 runs since 2008 (160 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 12.2% from 409. Weakest on Soft going: 4.6% from 306.
Royal Applause (GB)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 8.6% of 12,434 runs since 2008 (774 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.4% from 323.
Beneficial (GB)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,045 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 31 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 88 · newest first
The latest 50 of 88 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 12 April 2005 to 12 April 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Helen Rees's strike rate?
Helen Rees has won 5 of 77 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.5% (as at 31 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Helen Rees's Fair A/E?
1.14, from 77 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Helen Rees·SR 6.5%·A/E 1.14
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