Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.22). New recruits from other yards win at 12% first time out (52 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 387 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 28 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Mar–AprNew recruits: 11.5%
The read
New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 11.5% (n=52, Fair A/E 1.81). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 5.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.75 and −72.10 to a £1 stake over 144 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well over 2m5f – 3m (19.4%, n=36) and over 1m – 1m1f (12.5%, n=32). The record reads poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 2% over 49 runners, 5.8pts below the baseline. 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Prix du President de la Republique Handicap) at Auteuil (FR) (Apr 2016, £74,449). The stable star of the record: Kelthomas (FR) — 6 wins from 26 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.7%−1.1
n=120 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −6.70
New recruits · first run for the yard
11.5%+3.7
n=52 · A/E 1.81 · £1 +45.40
Debutants · first career start
7.1%−0.7
n=28 · A/E 1.74 · £1 +15.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.8
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
10%+2.2
n=10 · A/E 1.74 · £1 +16.00
When favourite
27.8%
n=18 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −2.70
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.6%−2.2
n=144 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −72.10
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
9.5%+1.7
n=42 · A/E 2.17 · £1 −1.70
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 2m5f – 3m19.4% vs 7.8% · n=36
Over 1m2f – 1m4f2% vs 7.8% · n=49
Over 1m – 1m1f12.5% vs 7.8% · n=32
On Standard (AW) going4% vs 7.8% · n=50
With new recruits11.5% vs 7.8% · n=52
With horses switching code11.1% vs 7.8% · n=63
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle164127.3%−60.80
Flat12697.1%+43.10
Chase9799.3%+6.70
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft184147.6%+9.50
Heavy104109.6%−10.30
Standard (AW)5024%−13.80
Good to Soft2827.1%+9.40
Good2129.5%−5.80
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)220198.6%−20.90
Chantilly (FR)4149.8%+22.30
Deauville (FR)2600%−24.00
Enghien (FR)2229.1%−14.20
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)2015%−11.30
Saint-Cloud (FR)2015%+2.30
Compiegne (FR)1200%−12.00
Longchamp (FR)1000%−10.00
Angers4250%+54.00
Craon (FR)300%−3.00
Dieppe (FR)200%−2.00
Pau (FR)200%−2.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)200%−2.00
Clairefontaine (FR)2150%+12.80
Fontainebleau (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 14249.5%−1.70
Class 5100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite19631.6%1.29+0.80
2nd–3rd fav44818.2%1.21+11.40
4th–6th fav7256.9%0.92−24.90
7th+ in betting23993.8%1.44+1.70
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f226156.6%−78.80
1m2f – 1m4f4912%−23.00
2m5f – 3m36719.4%+28.70
1m – 1m1f32412.5%+65.90
1m5f – 2m29310.3%+10.20
6f – 7f1300%−12.00
Under 6f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008400%—
20097228.6%—
20101200%−12.00
2011800%−8.00
20122528%+6.00
20132129.5%−10.70
201423313%+17.50
201534411.8%+21.20
20163425.9%−13.80
20172627.7%−18.90
20183239.4%+31.80
20195723.5%−34.70
202034514.7%+67.00
20211300%−13.00
2022600%−6.00
20231218.3%−6.30
20241815.6%−12.70
20258112.5%−5.40
20261300%−13.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps193178.8%+50.80
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners11897.6%+21.70
11-13 runners10876.5%−25.60
8-10 runners7057.1%−14.80
17+ runners6246.5%−1.60
5-7 runners18211.1%+5.30
2-4 runners11327.3%+4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 75 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 37 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from F-X De Chevigny (6) and Y Gourraud (6); 23 had their first archived run for this yard.
27 have since run for another yard, most often for Mme L Pontoir (3) and F Fiquet (2); 33 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0101095108044160
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Kelthomas (FR) — Prix du President de la Republique (Chase) Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Apr 2016 · Grade 3
£74,449
Redwillow Imperial (FR) — Prix Marc Antony (Hurdle) (Listed Handicap) (4yo) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Nov 2018 · Listed
£39,823
Kelthomas (FR) — Prix Lutteur III (Chase) (Listed Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Mar 2016 · Listed
Progeny have won 4.9% of 469 runs since 2008 (66 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 117.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 395 · newest first
The latest 50 of 395 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 March 2005 to 14 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is J-M Baudrelle's strike rate?
J-M Baudrelle has won 30 of 387 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does J-M Baudrelle do best at?
Chantilly (FR) by strike rate: 4 wins from 41 runners (9.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is J-M Baudrelle's Fair A/E?
1.22, from 373 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
J-M Baudrelle·SR 7.8%·A/E 1.22
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