Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.66).
Deterministic profile computed from 157 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 3.3%
The read
The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (6.5%, n=31) and on Soft going (5.6%, n=54). 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle at Listowel (Sep 2011, £29,250). The stable star of the record: Caridadi (IRE) — 5 wins from 69 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.4%−0.1
n=42 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −27.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.5
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.5
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.3%+0.8
n=92 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −54.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break6.5% vs 2.5% · n=31
On Soft going5.6% vs 2.5% · n=54
In Flat races0% vs 2.5% · n=36
Off a 8-14-day break0% vs 2.5% · n=35
Off a 31-60-day break0% vs 2.5% · n=34
With horses switching code1.3% vs 2.5% · n=75 · A/E 0.38
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle9533.2%−59.50
Flat3600%−36.00
Chase2613.8%−11.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good5711.8%−42.00
Soft5435.6%−18.50
Good to Soft2300%−23.00
Standard (AW)1200%−12.00
Heavy900%−9.00
Good to Firm200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Tramore2400%−24.00
Cork1500%−15.00
Limerick1300%−13.00
Dundalk (AW)1200%−12.00
Wexford1200%−12.00
Thurles1119.1%+4.00
Kilbeggan10110%+5.00
Clonmel1000%−10.00
Gowran Park700%−7.00
Killarney600%−6.00
Tipperary500%−5.00
Downpatrick5120%+8.00
Navan500%−5.00
Galway4125%+3.50
Listowel400%−4.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite400%0.00−4.00
2nd–3rd fav9111.1%0.96−1.50
4th–6th fav2015%0.75−7.00
7th+ in betting12421.6%0.63−94.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m6311.6%−48.00
2m1f – 2m4f5311.9%−40.00
1m2f – 1m4f2200%−22.00
2m5f – 3m1119.1%−3.50
1m – 1m1f500%−5.00
Over 3m3133.3%+12.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20224936.1%−11.50
20233612.8%−23.00
20241900%−19.00
20253400%−34.00
20261900%−19.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps13343%−82.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners7811.3%−63.00
11-13 runners4500%−45.00
17+ runners2528%−2.50
8-10 runners9111.1%+4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 12 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 12 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Richard Hannon (2) and Simon & Ed Crisford (2); 2 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 11 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0130000056600
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
40
Archived wins
2
Pattern / graded wins
£459k
Prize money
2011
Best season · 7 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Much Acclaimed (IRE) — Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle (Grade C Handicap) Listowel · Sep 2011 · Grade C
£29,250
Much Acclaimed (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund September Handicap Curragh · Sep 2011
£29,250
Hill Fairy (GB) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Lombardstown Mares Novice Chase (Listed) Cork · Dec 2008 · Listed
Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,091 runs since 2008 (282 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.2% from 154. Weakest on Heavy going: 4.8% from 146. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 13% from 300.
Progeny have won 18% of 7,499 runs since 2008 (875 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 12.3% from 324. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.4% from 267.
Arcadio (GER)11.1% · 2–18
Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,977 runs since 2008 (375 horses).
Sea The Moon (GER)5.6% · 1–18
Progeny have won 12% of 4,542 runs since 2008 (500 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15% from 804.
Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,476 runs since 2008 (390 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 14.7% from 231. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.4% from 184.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 631 · newest first
The latest 50 of 631 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 27 January 2005 to 11 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is J Morrison's strike rate?
J Morrison has won 4 of 157 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 2.5% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is J Morrison in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is J Morrison's Fair A/E?
0.66, from 157 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
J Morrison·SR 2.5%·A/E 0.66
KTB
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