Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, winning with 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.10). With a claiming rider up the record reads 8% (296 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 582 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 25 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Jul–SepPatrick Mangan: 13% from 77Claiming riders: 8.4%
The read
It is weakest at Clonmel (0% over 38 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.3% (n=133, Fair A/E 0.56). Patrick Mangan rides 13% of the entries and beats the yard's average (13% vs 6%, A/E 1.83) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Good to Firm going (12.1%, n=33). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 59 runners, 6pts below the baseline. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle at Listowel (Sep 2011, £29,250). The stable star of the record: Caridadi (IRE) — 5 wins from 69 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jul–Sep.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.3%−3.7
n=133 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −93.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.0
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.0
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.0
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=15 · A/E 1.80 · £1 +5.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.4%+2.4
n=296 · A/E 1.43 · £1 −41.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
22.2%+16.2
n=9 · A/E 3.05 · £1 +23.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Patrick Mangan13% vs 6% · n=77
Off a break of 180+ days0% vs 6% · n=59
At Clonmel0% vs 6% · n=38
On Good to Firm going12.1% vs 6% · n=33
At Killarney0% vs 6% · n=30
On last-time-out winners11.4% vs 6% · n=35
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle334216.3%−116.75
Flat13386%−43.00
Chase10665.7%−37.00
NH Flat900%−9.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good217115.1%−120.75
Soft179116.1%−38.00
Heavy7145.6%−20.00
Good to Soft5923.4%−38.00
Good to Firm33412.1%+8.00
Standard (AW)2229.1%−7.00
Firm11100%+10.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Tramore7245.6%−43.75
Cork5946.8%+12.50
Gowran Park4724.3%−26.00
Limerick4324.7%−23.00
Clonmel3800%−38.00
Wexford3226.3%−20.50
Killarney3000%−30.00
Tipperary2900%−29.00
Kilbeggan2528%−4.00
Dundalk (AW)2229.1%−7.00
Thurles2229.1%+0.00
Navan20210%−0.50
Punchestown20210%−3.00
Ballinrobe15213.3%+6.00
Galway14321.4%+16.50
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 19222.2%+23.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite19526.3%1.53+1.75
2nd–3rd fav741114.9%1.23+9.00
4th–6th fav11298%1.13−8.00
7th+ in betting377102.7%0.85−208.50
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m254176.7%−64.00
2m1f – 2m4f188105.3%−73.50
1m2f – 1m4f6757.5%−20.00
2m5f – 3m4324.7%−33.25
1m – 1m1f2000%−20.00
6f – 7f700%−7.00
Over 3m3133.3%+12.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200820420%+45.00
20091800%−18.00
20102200%−22.00
201133721.2%+41.50
20122314.3%−15.00
201317317.6%+7.00
20142514%+1.00
20155036%−28.75
20165723.5%−41.00
20172913.4%−16.00
20182600%−26.00
20192129.5%−9.50
202029413.8%+6.00
20215535.5%−23.50
20224936.1%−11.50
20233612.8%−23.00
20241900%−19.00
20253400%−34.00
20261900%−19.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps462326.9%−129.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners224146.3%−78.50
11-13 runners143107%−48.50
17+ runners14185.7%−35.00
8-10 runners6234.8%−31.75
5-7 runners1200%−12.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 28 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 28 horses listed, 20 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Tom Tate (3) and Richard Hannon (2); 8 had their first archived run for this yard.
5 have since run for another yard; 23 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
01344041478577
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
40
Archived wins
2
Pattern / graded wins
£459k
Prize money
2011
Best season · 7 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Much Acclaimed (IRE) — Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle (Grade C Handicap) Listowel · Sep 2011 · Grade C
£29,250
Much Acclaimed (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund September Handicap Curragh · Sep 2011
£29,250
Hill Fairy (GB) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Lombardstown Mares Novice Chase (Listed) Cork · Dec 2008 · Listed
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,829 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.
Arcadio (GER)6.8% · 5–73
Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,977 runs since 2008 (375 horses).
Danehill Dancer (IRE)3.2% · 2–62
Progeny have won 11.2% of 10,094 runs since 2008 (783 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 130.
Dynaformer (USA)4.8% · 2–42
Progeny have won 14.6% of 1,776 runs since 2008 (154 horses). Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 20.6% from 199. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 8.3% from 169.
Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,631 runs since 2008 (842 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 25 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 631 · newest first
The latest 50 of 631 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 27 January 2005 to 11 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is J Morrison's strike rate?
J Morrison has won 35 of 582 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6% (as at 25 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does J Morrison do best at?
Cork by strike rate: 4 wins from 59 runners (6.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for J Morrison?
Patrick Mangan, with 77 runners since 2008 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (13%).
What is J Morrison's Fair A/E?
1.10, from 582 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
J Morrison·SR 6%·A/E 1.10
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