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Trainer profile

Jean-Pierre Carvalho

618 runners in the lifetime window · 183 individual horses
As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 2 days ago 100% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
64–618
Wins / Runs
10.4%
Strike rate
n=618
168 (27%)
Placed
1.05
Fair A/E
n=598 · 0.97 incl. margin
−52.82
£1 level stake
n=611 at SP · −8.6%
£2.03m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
12.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.05). New recruits from other yards win at 18% first time out (49 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 618 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Sep–Oct 39% when favourite Maxime Guyon: 22.8% from 79 New recruits: 18.4% Sends off the favourite in 7% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Maisons-Laffitte (FR) (14.9%, n=47), clear of the yard's 10.4% baseline. It is weakest at Chantilly (6.6% over 151 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 18.4% (n=49, Fair A/E 2.26), but runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 3.8% (n=52, Fair A/E 0.56). The market has consistently overbet debutants: 7.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.74 and −65.90 to a £1 stake over 136 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Maxime Guyon rides 13% of the entries and beats the yard's average (22.8% vs 10.4%, A/E 1.68) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 11 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Criterium International at Longchamp (FR) (Oct 2019, £128,694). Seasonally, the yard fires Sep–Oct.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
9.8%−0.6
n=164 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −37.20
New recruits · first run for the yard
18.4%+8.0
n=49 · A/E 2.26 · £1 +6.68
Debutants · first career start
7.4%−3.0
n=136 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −65.90
First-time headgear · true-first definition
8.7%−1.7
n=46 · A/E 0.97 · £1 +9.60
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
11.1%+0.7
n=9 · A/E 2.19 · £1 +6.70
When favourite
39%
n=41 · A/E 1.40 · £1 +9.78
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.8%−6.6
n=52 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −29.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
8.9%−1.5
n=124 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −39.40

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Maxime Guyon 22.8% vs 10.4% · n=79
With new recruits 18.4% vs 10.4% · n=49
With claiming riders up 3.8% vs 10.4% · n=52
At Chantilly 6.6% vs 10.4% · n=151
At Maisons-Laffitte (FR) 14.9% vs 10.4% · n=47
With debutants 7.4% vs 10.4% · n=136
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 615 64 10.4% −49.82
Chase 2 0 0% −2.00
Hurdle 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 162 16 9.9% −1.62
Soft 148 18 12.2% +3.50
Good 131 14 10.7% −19.40
Good to Soft 126 10 7.9% −14.70
Heavy 51 6 11.8% −20.60

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly 151 10 6.6% −66.90
Deauville (FR) 135 12 8.9% −34.92
Saint-Cloud (FR) 112 11 9.8% −48.90
Longchamp (FR) 96 13 13.5% +73.90
Maisons-Laffitte (FR) 47 7 14.9% +17.40
Compiegne 13 2 15.4% −9.20
Clairefontaine 12 1 8.3% +2.00
Cagnes-Sur-Mer 10 1 10% −4.00
Fontainebleau 6 2 33.3% +6.20
Lyon Parilly 6 1 16.7% +6.00
Dieppe (FR) 6 0 0% −6.00
Amiens (FR) 6 1 16.7% +1.00
Vittel (FR) 4 1 25% −3.00
Auteuil (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00
Nancy (FR) 2 0 0% —

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 124 11 8.9% −39.40
Class 3 8 2 25% +1.00
Class 4 3 1 33.3% +4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 48 20 41.7% 1.57 +18.78
2nd–3rd fav 109 17 15.6% 0.87 −1.50
4th–6th fav 197 16 8.1% 0.87 −21.30
7th+ in betting 257 8 3.1% 0.96 −48.80
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Zaubertanzerin (GER)then Y Barberot 15 4 6 1 Nov 13
Chanel Gold (FR)then J Reynier 14 2 5 5 Sep 24
Banu (GER) 13 0 5 15 Nov 13
Walzertakt (GER) 12 2 3 11 Sep 16
Winning Dream (FR) 12 0 1 4 Aug 13
Moonshiner (GER) 10 2 4 9 Nov 19
Likethewind (FR) 9 1 1 28 Oct 26
Borcano (IRE)from N Caullery 9 1 1 24 Aug 26
Alisto King (IRE) 9 0 0 12 Jun 25
Mythico (FR) 9 0 3 27 Jul 24
All For Arthur (IRE) 9 0 2 3 Jan 21
Little Power (FR)then L Cendra 9 1 3 15 May 13
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 183 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 21 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Andreas Lowe (2) and Mario Hofer (2); 39 had their first archived run for this yard.

22 have since run for another yard, most often for J Reynier (3) and Carina Fey (2); 38 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 5
Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0180581113101613106
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderMaxime Guyon
13% of all rides
22.8% SR · A/E 1.68
RiderRWSR£1
Maxime Guyon 79 18 22.8% +19.80
Christophe Soumillon 30 3 10% −12.70
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→
64
Archived wins
11
Pattern / graded wins
£2.03m
Prize money
2013
Best season · 13 wins
Alson (GER) — Criterium International (2yo Colts & Fillies) (New Course: 2nd Post) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2019 · Group 1
£128,694
Savoir Vivre (IRE) — Lucien Barriere Grand Prix de Deauville (3yo+) (Turf) Deauville (FR) · Aug 2016 · Group 2
£83,824
Walzertakt (GER) — Prix Maurice de Nieuil (4yo+) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Jul 2015 · Group 2
£57,442
Notable horses
Zaubertanzerin (GER) Chanel Gold (FR) Walzertakt (GER) Moonshiner (GER) Usbeke (GER) Gold Player (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Lord Of England (GER) 17.1% · 7–41
Progeny have won 10.5% of 1,097 runs since 2010 (151 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.4% from 109. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.3% from 284. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7% from 142.
Adlerflug (GER) 10.5% · 4–38
Progeny have won 14.5% of 587 runs since 2013 (108 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 18.6% from 172. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 10.7% from 103.
Tertullian (USA) 8.6% · 3–35
Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,007 runs since 2008 (113 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 4.8% from 251.
Dabirsim (FR) 5.3% · 1–19
Progeny have won 7.4% of 4,175 runs since 2017 (448 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.9% from 258. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.7% from 146.
Soldier Hollow (GB) 10.5% · 2–19
Progeny have won 11.4% of 1,927 runs since 2011 (268 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8% from 489. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15% from 386.
Toronado (IRE) 6.3% · 1–16
Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,928 runs since 2018 (417 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.4% from 202. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.3% from 144.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 618 · newest first

The latest 50 of 618 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 August 2009 to 12 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
12 Nov 26 Chantilly (FR) Yuna (FR)J: Benjamin Marie Prix De L'epars14f · Standard · 8 ran 3rd 8/1
10 Nov 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Alparslan (FR)J: Anthony Crastus Prix Roland Fougedoire6f · Very Soft · 16 ran 9th 7/1
09 Nov 26 Chantilly (FR) Baristo (FR)J: Anthony Crastus Prix Du Bosquet Saint-Romain9f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 11/1
06 Nov 26 Deauville (FR) Petit Genie (FR)J: Benjamin Marie Prix De Croissanville7.5f · Standard · 13 ran 1st 20/1
06 Nov 26 Deauville (FR) It's Only Love (FR)J: Benjamin Marie Prix De La Banche9.5f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 14/1
30 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) It's Only Love (FR)J: Anthony Crastus Prix De La Rocque9.5f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 25/1
28 Oct 26 Amiens (FR) Likethewind (FR)J: Mathieu Calbrix Prix Des Benevoles (Prix Des Hortillonnages)Class 4 · 8f · Heavy · 7 ran 7th 11/4F
28 Oct 26 Amiens (FR) Petit Genie (FR)J: Eddy Hardouin Prix Des Socioprofessionnels (Prix Du Macaron)8f · Heavy · 11 ran 8th 5/2F
28 Oct 26 Amiens (FR) Djaveria (IRE)J: Mathieu Calbrix Prix Du Zenith D'amiens8f · Heavy · 11 ran 2nd 11/1
28 Oct 26 Amiens (FR) Yuna (FR)J: Mathieu Calbrix Prix De RoyeClass 3 · 11f · Heavy · 12 ran 9th 22/1
28 Oct 26 Le Mans (FR) Flavia Maxima (FR)J: Sibylle Vogt Prix Marcel CoutardClass 4 · 7f · Heavy · 13 ran 9th 12/1
22 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Divo Two Times (FR)J: Cristian Demuro Prix De Castillon9.5f · Standard · 8 ran 1st 11/8F
15 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Alparslan (FR)J: Maxime Guyon Prix De L'amante InquieteClass 3 · 6f · Good · 16 ran 1st 7/2J
15 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Alparslan (FR)J: Maxime Guyon Prix De L'amante InquieteClass 3 · 6f · Good · 16 ran 1st 7/2J
14 Oct 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) It's Only Love (FR)J: Alexis Pouchin Prix Guemul8f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 16/1
11 Oct 26 Nancy (FR) Yuna (FR)J: Mme Frida Valle Skar Prix Du Technopole De Brabois12.5f · Soft · 11 ran UR —
08 Oct 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Petit Genie (FR)J: Cristian Demuro Prix D'ecquevilly8f · Soft · 8 ran 3rd 13/2
27 Sep 26 Amiens (FR) Likethewind (FR)J: Anthony Crastus Prix Du Pdv Pmu L'ocean Equihen-plage (Prix Edouard Acker)Class 4 · 8f · Soft · 14 ran 1st 6/1
27 Sep 26 Amiens (FR) Yuna (FR)J: Mathieu Calbrix Px Du Pdv Pmu Le Chalet Les Attaques (62) (Px Du Stade De La Licorne)11f · Soft · 10 ran 7th 20/1
24 Sep 26 Compiegne (FR) Djaveria (IRE)J: Theo Bachelot Prix De Vignemont8f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 7th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Jean-Pierre Carvalho's strike rate?
Jean-Pierre Carvalho has won 64 of 618 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.4% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Jean-Pierre Carvalho do best at?
Maisons-Laffitte (FR) by strike rate: 7 wins from 47 runners (14.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Jean-Pierre Carvalho?
Maxime Guyon, with 79 runners since 2008 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (22.8%).
Is Jean-Pierre Carvalho in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Jean-Pierre Carvalho's Fair A/E?
1.05, from 598 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 14 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).