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Trainer profile

John Brassil

181 runners in the lifetime window · 35 individual horses
As at 28 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner May 2023 97% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
8–181
Wins / Runs
4.4%
Strike rate
n=181
37 (20%)
Placed
0.78
Fair A/E
n=181 · 0.58 incl. margin
−107.50
£1 level stake
n=181 at SP · −59.4%
£115k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.78). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 7% off breaks of two months or more (42 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 181 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 28 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 7.1%
The read

Runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 1.3% (n=76, Fair A/E 0.27). The yard also reads well off a 31-60-day break (7.7%, n=39).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.1%+2.7
n=42 · A/E 1.61 · £1 −3.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.4
n=28 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −28.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.4
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.4
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
18.2%
n=11 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −3.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1.3%−3.1
n=76 · A/E 0.27 · £1 −73.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.4
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Tom Doyle 11.8% vs 4.4% · n=34
With a new jockey booking 1% vs 4.4% · n=105
With claiming riders up 1.3% vs 4.4% · n=76
Off a 31-60-day break 7.7% vs 4.4% · n=39
Over 1m5f – 2m 6.5% vs 4.4% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 83 4 4.8% −51.50
Chase 72 4 5.6% −30.00
NH Flat 21 0 0% −21.00
Flat 5 0 0% −5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 58 2 3.4% −42.50
Soft 48 3 6.3% −25.00
Heavy 42 2 4.8% −18.00
Good to Soft 19 0 0% −19.00
Good to Firm 10 1 10% +1.00
Firm 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Limerick 27 1 3.7% −18.00
Cork 22 1 4.5% −19.00
Killarney 20 0 0% −20.00
Tipperary 15 0 0% −15.00
Ballinrobe 10 0 0% −10.00
Thurles 10 1 10% +5.00
Naas 9 1 11.1% +6.00
Galway 9 1 11.1% +2.00
Punchestown 8 0 0% −8.00
Listowel 7 0 0% −7.00
Roscommon 7 2 28.6% +9.00
Gowran Park 6 0 0% −6.00
Navan 6 0 0% −6.00
Leopardstown 5 0 0% −5.00
Sligo 5 1 20% −0.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 6 0 0% −6.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 13 2 15.4% 0.84 −5.50
2nd–3rd fav 15 1 6.7% 0.52 −10.00
4th–6th fav 44 4 9.1% 1.43 +2.00
7th+ in betting 109 1 0.9% 0.32 −94.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
79.4% completed · 155 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 72 79.2% 4 1 10 0 0
Hurdle 83 79.5% 1 2 11 2 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
The Bosses Nephew (IRE)then Richard Mitchell 27 3 8 25 Jan 12
Betheholygobbs (IRE)then Richard Mitchell 22 1 7 13 Jul 11
Jamesmicheal (IRE) 20 1 3 14 Nov 18
Novel Investment (IRE) 16 2 8 13 May 12
Tungsten Kid (IRE) 13 0 3 23 Jul 19
Puddencullinan (IRE) 12 0 3 13 May 12
Ashling Hotel (IRE) 9 0 1 9 Jul 10
Carrigerry (IRE) 7 0 0 13 Jul 11
Ladymayoress (IRE) 6 0 0 12 Feb 09
Checker Hill (IRE) 4 0 0 22 Jul 18
Emily's Flame (IRE) 4 0 1 28 Feb 16
Celtic Scraks (IRE) 3 0 0 2 May 23
All 35 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 35 horses listed, none arrived from another yard in our archive — all 35 had their first archived run here.

4 have since run for another yard, most often for Richard Mitchell (3); 31 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
7860406011009
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderTom Doyle
19% of all rides
11.8% SR · A/E 2.16
RiderRWSR£1
Tom Doyle 34 4 11.8% +11.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
15
Archived wins
£186k
Prize money
2005
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Novel Investment (IRE) — Tote Telebet 1850 238 669 Handicap Hurdle (81-123) Galway · Jul 2010
£11,730
The Bosses Nephew (IRE) — Dromahane (QR) Beginners Chase Cork · Mar 2008
£10,365
The Bosses Nephew (IRE) — Naas Handicap Chase Naas · Feb 2010
£10,350
Notable horses
The Bosses Nephew (IRE) Novel Investment (IRE) Glabejet (IRE) Betheholygobbs (IRE) Jamesmicheal (IRE) Shuil Saoirse (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Flemensfirth (USA) 11.1% · 3–27
Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,280 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses).
Insan (USA) 4.5% · 1–22
Progeny have won 11.3% of 362 runs since 2008 (45 horses). Strongest on Good going: 14.3% from 126.
Blueprint (IRE) 5% · 1–20
Progeny have won 9.9% of 1,670 runs since 2008 (137 horses).
Taipan (IRE) 12.5% · 2–16
Progeny have won 9.5% of 1,212 runs since 2008 (128 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 12.6% from 159. Weakest beyond 3m (all codes): 6% from 133.
Well Chosen (GB) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 12.6% of 1,919 runs since 2008 (155 horses).
Beneficial (GB) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,044 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 288 · newest first

The latest 50 of 288 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 30 January 2005 to 2 May 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
02 May 23 Ballinrobe Celtic Scraks (IRE)J: Shane O'Callaghan Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)16.5f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran PU 200/1
27 Jul 22 Galway Onthewaytowin (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Tote Always Sp Or Better At Galway Maiden Hurdle21f · Good · 17 ran 10th 200/1
25 Jul 22 Galway Celtic Scraks (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Galmont.com & Galwaybayhotel.com Novice Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 9th 150/1
08 Jul 22 Cork Onthewaytowin (IRE)J: Keith Donoghue Follow Us On Twitter Maiden Hurdle24f · Good · 18 ran 13th 100/1
08 Jul 22 Cork Celtic Scraks (IRE)J: Keith Donoghue Sign Up To Our Newsletter Maiden Hurdle17f · Good · 17 ran PU 40/1
27 Dec 19 Limerick Fanahans Well (IRE)J: Mr P J O'Neill Earl Of Harrington Memorial Maiden Hunters Chase22.5f · Heavy · 16 ran PU 50/1
23 Jul 19 Ballinrobe Tungsten Kid (IRE)J: Davy Russell Sweeney Oil Handicap Hurdle (80-95)21.5f · Good · 16 ran 8th 10/3F
04 Jul 19 Tipperary Tungsten Kid (IRE)J: Davy Russell Follow tipperaryraces.ie Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 1)24f · Good · 17 ran 2nd 3/1F
04 Jul 19 Tipperary Fanahans Well (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Dundrum House Hotel Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 18 ran PU 33/1
11 Jun 19 Roscommon Limbitless (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Lengthen The Odds With Betvictor (pro/am) Flat Race16f · Good · 14 ran 14th 33/1
28 May 19 Ballinrobe Tungsten Kid (IRE)J: Conor Brassil www.mchale.net Handicap Hurdle (80-95)25f · Good · 13 ran 3rd 7/1
20 Feb 19 Punchestown Tungsten Kid (IRE)J: Conor Brassil Coral Bet 5 Get 20 In Free Bets Handicap Hurdle (80-95)20f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 4th 11/2J
15 Jan 19 Fairyhouse Tungsten Kid (IRE)J: Cathal Landers Your Clubs Fundraiser At Fairyhouse, Enquire Today Handicap Hurdle (80-95)20f · Good · 15 ran 5th 5/1F
29 Nov 18 Thurles Tungsten Kid (IRE)J: Cathal Landers Thurles Handicap Hurdle (80-95)22.5f · Good · 18 ran 5th 25/1
22 Nov 18 Thurles Tungsten Kid (IRE)J: Cathal Landers Racecourse Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle (80-95)16f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 8th 33/1
14 Nov 18 Fairyhouse Jamesmicheal (IRE)J: Mark Enright Sponsorship At Fairyhouse Enquire Today Handicap Chase (0-102)23.5f · Good · 13 ran 5th 10/1
28 Oct 18 Galway Jamesmicheal (IRE)J: Mark Enright Ballymore Handicap Chase (0-102)22.5f · Soft · 15 ran 9th 9/1
21 Sep 18 Ballinrobe Jamesmicheal (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Chase (0-109)23f · Soft To Heavy · 8 ran 2nd 4/1F
07 Aug 18 Roscommon Jamesmicheal (IRE)J: Mark Enright Michael Holland Tyres Handicap Chase (0-95)24.5f · Good · 16 ran 5th 5/1
22 Jul 18 Tipperary Checker Hill (IRE)J: E O'Connell Jim Ryan Racecourse Services Handicap Chase (0-95)20f · Good · 16 ran PU 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John Brassil's strike rate?
John Brassil has won 8 of 181 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.4% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is John Brassil's Fair A/E?
0.78, from 181 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 28 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).