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Trainer profile

John Geoghegan

560 runners in the lifetime window · 50 individual horses
As at 10 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jun 2025 95% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
34–560
Wins / Runs
6.1%
Strike rate
n=560
119 (21%)
Placed
0.97
Fair A/E
n=560 · 0.75 incl. margin
−200.84
£1 level stake
n=560 at SP · −35.9%
£384k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 6% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.97). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 9% (33 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 560 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 10 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr Gary Halpin: 6.8% from 88 Headgear returns: 9.1%
The read

A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 9.1% (n=33, Fair A/E 1.99), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 3.1% (n=97, Fair A/E 0.68). Gary Halpin rides 16% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (6.8%, A/E 1.06) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (11.8%, n=34). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 0% over 70 runners, 6.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Soft going: Fair A/E 0.26 across 92 runners (1.1% strike, −11.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: The Dancing Lord (GB) — 6 wins from 22 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.1%−3.0
n=97 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −45.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
5.9%−0.2
n=17 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −12.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.1
n=29 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −29.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.1
n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
9.1%+3.0
n=33 · A/E 1.99 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=21 · A/E 1.66 · £1 +4.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.2%−0.9
n=324 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −118.92
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.1
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 61-180-day break 0% vs 6.1% · n=70
With C&D winners 11.1% vs 6.1% · n=99
On Soft going 1.1% vs 6.1% · n=92
On Heavy going 0% vs 6.1% · n=36
Off a 0-7-day break 11.8% vs 6.1% · n=34
At Dundalk (AW) 8.9% vs 6.1% · n=236
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 532 34 6.4% −172.84
Hurdle 23 0 0% −23.00
NH Flat 3 0 0% −3.00
Chase 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 240 21 8.8% −107.59
Good 106 5 4.7% −57.75
Soft 92 1 1.1% −11.00
Good to Firm 58 4 6.9% −3.50
Heavy 36 0 0% −36.00
Good to Soft 25 2 8% +5.00
Firm 3 1 33.3% +10.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 236 21 8.9% −103.59
Leopardstown 55 3 5.5% −11.00
Curragh 35 2 5.7% +67.00
Gowran Park 34 1 2.9% −30.75
Fairyhouse 30 1 3.3% −19.00
Navan 26 0 0% −26.00
Naas 26 0 0% −26.00
Limerick 21 1 4.8% −11.00
Cork 17 2 11.8% +0.50
Down Royal 13 1 7.7% +0.00
Tipperary 12 0 0% −12.00
Galway 10 1 10% +5.00
Roscommon 9 0 0% −9.00
Sligo 6 0 0% −6.00
Punchestown 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 5 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 26 7 26.9% 1.42 −1.00
2nd–3rd fav 70 10 14.3% 1.13 −16.34
4th–6th fav 142 10 7% 0.95 −47.50
7th+ in betting 322 7 2.2% 0.66 −136.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Silk Cravat (GB)from G M Lyons 43 3 15 9 Jun 21
Queluz (IRE) 39 3 13 15 Jun 19
Chateau Musar (IRE) 37 4 8 25 Aug 23
Prince Of Fashion (IRE) 37 4 11 20 Dec 13
Monteriggioni (IRE) 35 1 10 18 Mar 12
Massa Lubrense (IRE) 30 3 9 12 Aug 21
Cinnin Oir (IRE)from Ms Caroline Hutchinson · then D J Barry 26 2 6 4 Sep 11
Lady Boomerang (IRE)from K J Condon 23 2 6 27 Sep 20
The Dancing Lord (GB)from Brett Johnson · then Robert Mills 22 6 11 16 Aug 15
Lake Pontchartrain (IRE)from Sylvester Kirk 19 1 1 20 Sep 10
Andalucia Lady (IRE)then W McCreery 17 1 2 2 Jul 10
Ludwigshafen (IRE) 16 1 3 18 Jun 09
All 50 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 50 horses listed, 18 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from G M Lyons (3) and Ms Caroline Hutchinson (2); 32 had their first archived run for this yard.

12 have since run for another yard, most often for D J Barry (2) and Paul W Flynn (2); 38 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
8991147481398
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderGary Halpin
16% of all rides
6.8% SR · A/E 1.06
RiderRWSR£1
Gary Halpin 88 6 6.8% −53.25
P B Beggy 70 2 2.9% −35.00
Paddy Harnett 35 2 5.7% −4.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
41
Archived wins
£505k
Prize money
2021
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Lake Pontchartrain (IRE) — Ladbrokes Handicap Dundalk (AW) · Nov 2007
£17,252
Lake Pontchartrain (IRE) — boylesports.com Handicap Dundalk (AW) · Nov 2008
£16,926
Monteriggioni (IRE) — Pinewood Handicap (60-100) Leopardstown · Apr 2008
£16,275
Notable horses
The Dancing Lord (GB) Chateau Musar (IRE) Prince Of Fashion (IRE) Lake Pontchartrain (IRE) Monteriggioni (IRE) Silk Cravat (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Kyllachy (GB) 7% · 3–43
Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.
Bushranger (IRE) 7.7% · 3–39
Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,449 runs since 2013 (300 horses).
Desert Prince (IRE) 10.8% · 4–37
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,734 runs since 2008 (178 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.6% from 425.
Morpheus (GB) 10.8% · 4–37
Progeny have won 7.1% of 1,673 runs since 2018 (128 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 10.9% from 540. Weakest on Soft going: 2.6% from 305. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 2.7% from 148.
Blue Ocean (USA) 2.9% · 1–35
Progeny have won 7.5% of 253 runs since 2008 (19 horses).
Fruits Of Love (USA) 6.3% · 2–32
Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,777 runs since 2008 (221 horses). Strongest on Good going: 11.8% from 944. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 182. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 4% from 150.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 652 · newest first

The latest 50 of 652 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 January 2005 to 19 June 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 Jun 25 Leopardstown Sayfa Fad (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Jerry Fish Handicap (0-60) (Div 2)9f · Good · 16 ran 8th 14/1
12 May 25 Roscommon Profit Surge (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Next Meeting At Roscommon On Monday, 19th May Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)7.5f · Good · 15 ran 6th 16/1
07 May 25 Gowran Park Sayfa Fad (IRE)J: Colin Keane Save 33% Buying Tickets Online Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)8f · Good · 14 ran 10th 7/1
05 May 25 Curragh The Bear Trap (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett PG Duffy & Sons Citroen Apprentice Handicap7f · Good · 25 ran 16th 16/1
09 Apr 25 Leopardstown Sayfa Fad (IRE)J: Colin Keane O'Driscolls Irish Whiskey Handicap (0-60)9f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 12/1
09 Apr 25 Leopardstown The Bear Trap (IRE)J: Ben Coen FM104 'Giddy Up' Handicap7f · Good · 13 ran 5th 10/1
21 Feb 25 Dundalk (AW) Sayfa Fad (IRE)J: Sorcha Woods DundalkStadium.com Apprentice Handicap (47-65)10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 40/1
14 Feb 25 Dundalk (AW) Profit Surge (IRE)J: Jessica Maye William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap (47-65)7f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 25/1
13 Dec 24 Dundalk (AW) The Bear Trap (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Swifty Sports Proud Sponsor Of Irish Racing Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 7/1
13 Nov 24 Dundalk (AW) The Bear Trap (IRE)J: Sam Coen DKITSU Race Day At Dundalk Handicap (47-70)7f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 8/1
08 Nov 24 Dundalk (AW) Profit Surge (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse William Hill Proper Betting Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)8f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 20/1
08 Nov 24 Dundalk (AW) Sayfa Fad (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan William Hill Proper Betting Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)8f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 20/1
30 Oct 24 Dundalk (AW) Profit Surge (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (47-70)8f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 22/1
22 Oct 24 Curragh The Bear Trap (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett Friarstown Stud Handicap6f · Soft · 15 ran 11th 12/1
14 Oct 24 Roscommon Sayfa Fad (IRE)J: Ben Coen Roscommon Racecourse On Facebook Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)7.5f · Soft · 15 ran 11th 20/1
05 Oct 24 Curragh The Bear Trap (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett Gormley's Gallery Handicap (47-75)6f · Good · 17 ran 10th 14/1
04 Oct 24 Dundalk (AW) Profit Surge (IRE)J: W J Lee Michael Cooney Memorial Maiden7f · Standard · 12 ran 7th 33/1
03 Oct 24 Bellewstown Sayfa Fad (IRE)J: Colin Keane Bluegrass Horse Feeds Handicap (47-65)8f · Yielding · 13 ran 8th 10/1
23 Sep 24 Fairyhouse The Bear Trap (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett Treo Eile Handicap (47-75)7f · Good · 11 ran 5th 12/1
23 Sep 24 Fairyhouse Profit Surge (IRE)J: Wayne Lordan Kilminfoyle House Stud Fillies Maiden7f · Good · 11 ran 8th 28/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John Geoghegan's strike rate?
John Geoghegan has won 34 of 560 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.1% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Geoghegan do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 21 wins from 236 runners (8.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for John Geoghegan?
Gary Halpin, with 88 runners since 2008 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (6.8%).
What is John Geoghegan's Fair A/E?
0.97, from 560 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 10 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).