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Trainer profile

John Paul Brennan

63 runners in the lifetime window · 19 individual horses
As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Aug 2019 95% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
5–63
Wins / Runs
7.9%
Strike rate
n=63
16 (25%)
Placed
1.19
Fair A/E
n=63 · 0.94 incl. margin
+3.80
£1 level stake
n=63 at SP · +6.0%
£53,100
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 10.3%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−7.9
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−7.9
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
6.3%−1.6
n=16 · A/E 1.07 · £1 +10.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.9
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−7.9
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
10.3%+2.4
n=39 · A/E 1.45 · £1 +16.80

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Chase races 5.3% vs 7.9% · n=38
With claiming riders up 10.3% vs 7.9% · n=39
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Chase 38 2 5.3% −25.20
Hurdle 13 1 7.7% +4.00
NH Flat 9 2 22.2% +28.00
Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 23 2 8.7% −2.20
Soft 22 2 9.1% +15.00
Good to Firm 7 1 14.3% +2.00
Good to Soft 7 0 0% −7.00
Heavy 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Downpatrick 10 1 10% +7.00
Punchestown 6 1 16.7% +3.00
Cheltenham 4 0 0% −4.00
Wexford 4 0 0% −4.00
Galway 4 1 25% +7.00
Limerick 4 0 0% −4.00
Tipperary 3 0 0% −3.00
Down Royal 3 0 0% −3.00
Fairyhouse 3 0 0% −3.00
Gowran Park 3 0 0% −3.00
Killarney 3 1 33.3% +23.00
Cork 3 0 0% −3.00
Leopardstown 2 0 0% −2.00
Kilbeggan 2 0 0% −2.00
Tramore 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 2 0 0% 0.00 −2.00
2nd–3rd fav 12 1 8.3% 0.59 −8.20
4th–6th fav 22 3 13.6% 2.24 +15.00
7th+ in betting 27 1 3.7% 1.62 −1.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
74.5% completed · 51 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 38 71.1% 3 0 8 0 0
Hurdle 13 84.6% 1 0 1 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Need To Know (IRE) 20 2 6 17 Nov 17
Our Brian (IRE)then P J Rothwell 6 1 3 29 Aug 16
Dushydancer (IRE) 5 0 0 17 Oct 14
Hot Climate (IRE) 4 0 0 20 Jul 09
Climate Control (IRE) 4 0 1 26 Dec 08
Bay Central (IRE)then Evan Williams 3 1 1 30 Jul 09
Oscar Academy (IRE)then Olly Murphy 2 0 0 1 Aug 19
Golden Robin (IRE)from Sean Thomas Doyle · then Sue Smith 2 0 0 26 Jul 19
The Paddy Pie (IRE)then Sue Smith 2 0 0 27 Jul 17
Boruing Up A Storm (IRE) 2 0 1 4 Feb 16
Killowen Star (IRE) 2 0 0 26 Jul 10
Brackets (IRE)from Darragh Brennan 2 0 0 26 Feb 10
All 19 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 19 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 17 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for Sue Smith (2); 9 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
·00101002100000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Mr B O'Neill 17 1 5.9% +9.00
J J Slevin 8 1 12.5% +9.00
Ms N Carberry 4 1 25% +7.00
Ian McCarthy 4 0 0% −4.00
John Cullen 3 0 0% −3.00
Mr D G Lavery 3 0 0% −3.00
Mr B O Walsh 3 2 66.7% +9.80
Mr M M O'Connor 3 0 0% −3.00
Mr C J Sweeney 2 0 0% −2.00
Mr C Motherway 2 0 0% −2.00
Mr Derek O'Connor 2 0 0% −2.00
Brian Hayes 2 0 0% −2.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
11
Archived wins
£120k
Prize money
2005
Best season · 3 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Oran Climate (IRE) — P.B.S. Beginners Chase Leopardstown · Jan 2007
£13,020
Oran Climate (IRE) — Kerry Group Handicap Hurdle (81-123) Cork · Jun 2005
£12,093
Hazelhall Princess (IRE) — Visit The Panoramic Restaurant Beginners Chase Punchestown · Dec 2005
£10,365
Notable horses
Oran Climate (IRE) Need To Know (IRE) Climate Control (IRE) Hazelhall Princess (IRE) Our Brian (IRE) Bay Central (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Definite Article (GB) 10% · 2–20
Progeny have won 10.5% of 5,617 runs since 2008 (527 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.1% from 138. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 4.3% from 211.
Brian Boru (GB) 12.5% · 1–8
Progeny have won 11% of 4,123 runs since 2008 (285 horses).
Exit To Nowhere (USA) 14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 8.5% of 2,787 runs since 2008 (290 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.5% from 155.
Dushyantor (USA) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 9.7% of 1,917 runs since 2008 (149 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.2% from 162. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 13.7% from 139.
Montelimar (USA) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 5% of 100 runs since 2008 (18 horses).
Moscow Society (USA) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,521 runs since 2008 (255 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 105 · newest first

The latest 50 of 105 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 April 2005 to 1 August 2019.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
01 Aug 19 Galway Oscar Academy (IRE)J: Mr B O'Neill Guinness Time Flat Race18.5f · Good · 9 ran 8th 33/1
26 Jul 19 Wexford Golden Robin (IRE)J: Brian Hayes Liam Leacy Plumbing & Heating Ltd. Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 14 ran 5th 66/1
19 Jul 19 Kilbeggan Oscar Academy (IRE)J: Mr B O'Neill Book Online For Discounts Flat Race20f · Yielding · 10 ran 5th 5/1
19 Jul 19 Kilbeggan Golden Robin (IRE)J: Brian Hayes Tom McCormack Memorial Cup Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 9 ran 7th 66/1
17 Nov 17 Cheltenham Need To Know (IRE)J: J J Slevin Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap ChaseClass 2 · 30f · Good · 10 ran PU 25/1
27 Jul 17 Limerick The Paddy Pie (IRE)J: Mr D G Lavery Ladbrokes Munster National 8th October Flat Race16f · Yielding · 9 ran 9th 50/1
21 Jun 17 Wexford The Paddy Pie (IRE)J: Mr B O Walsh Loch Garman Flat Race16f · Good · 14 ran 13th 50/1
25 May 17 Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) Need To Know (IRE)J: Mr B O Walsh Prix de Gene (Cross-Country Chase) (Conditions) (6yo+) (Amateur Riders) (Turf)22.5f · Good · 13 ran 1st 14/5
29 Apr 17 Punchestown Need To Know (IRE)J: Mr B O Walsh Dooley Insurances Cross Country Chase24f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 1st 8/1
25 Apr 17 Punchestown Need To Know (IRE)J: Mr B O'Neill Kildare Hunt Club Fr Sean Breen Memorial Chase For The Ladies Perpetual Cup24f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 4th 9/2
26 Mar 17 Downpatrick Need To Know (IRE)J: Mr D G Lavery Boardsmill Sires Maiden Hunters Chase22f · Good · 11 ran PU 7/2
29 Aug 16 Downpatrick Our Brian (IRE)J: Davy Russell Downe Travel & Best Dressed Lady Win A Luxury Trip To New York Handicap Hurdle21.5f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 10/1
28 Jul 16 Galway Our Brian (IRE)J: J J Slevin Guinness Novice Hurdle20.5f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran F 20/1
13 Jul 16 Downpatrick Our Brian (IRE)J: J J Slevin Downpatrick Family Fun Day (c & G) Maiden Hurdle18f · Good · 10 ran 1st 16/1
15 Jun 16 Wexford Our Brian (IRE)J: J J Slevin 25 Free Bet At 188bet Maiden Hurdle24f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 8th 9/1
06 Jun 16 Listowel Need To Know (IRE)J: Mr H D Dunne Join The Listowel Races Supporters Club Hunters Chase24f · Good · 11 ran PU 10/1
26 Apr 16 Punchestown Need To Know (IRE)J: Mr B O'Neill Kildare Hunt Club Fr Sean Breen Memorial Chase For The Ladies Perpetual Cup24f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 4th 14/1
07 Apr 16 Aintree Need To Know (IRE)J: Mr B O'Neill Crabbie's Fox Hunters' Chase (National Course)Class 2 · 21f · Soft · 22 ran F 100/1
18 Mar 16 Cheltenham Need To Know (IRE)J: Mr Derek O'Connor St. James's Place Foxhunter Chase Challenge CupClass 2 · 26.5f · Good · 24 ran 20th 40/1
04 Feb 16 Clonmel Boruing Up A Storm (IRE)J: Mr B O'Neill Micro Dog Id Maiden Hunters Chase20f · Heavy · 11 ran 5th 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John Paul Brennan's strike rate?
John Paul Brennan has won 5 of 63 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is John Paul Brennan's Fair A/E?
1.19, from 63 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 29 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).