What is Kim Bailey's strike rate?

Kim Bailey has won 650 of 4,278 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 15.2% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Kim Bailey do best at?

Towcester by strike rate: 32 wins from 150 runners (21.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Kim Bailey?

David Bass, with 1,687 runners since 2008 — 39% of the total. That pairing has won 294 (17.4%).

What is Kim Bailey's Fair A/E?

1.06, from 4,273 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Kim Bailey

4,278 runners in the lifetime window · 448 individual horses

As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Dec 2024 97% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

650–4,278

Wins / Runs

15.2%

Strike rate

n=4,278

1,520 (36%)

Placed

1.06

Fair A/E

n=4,273 · 0.92 incl. margin

−769.31

£1 level stake

n=4,278 at SP · −18.0%

£6.81m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

13.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 230 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 15% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.06). Horses in first-time headgear strike at 17% (264 runs, true-first definition).

Deterministic profile computed from 4,278 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Aug–Nov Fresh horses: 16.7% 37.6% when favourite David Bass: 17.4% from 1,687 Sends off the favourite in 15% of races

The read

It is weakest at Aintree (3.8% over 53 runners) — the widest gap in the record. In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 11.2% (n=241, Fair A/E 0.97). Debutants are the standout value angle: 16.6% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.37 and +58.82 to a £1 stake over 302 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. David Bass rides 39% of the entries and edges the yard's average (17.4% vs 15.2%, A/E 1.05) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 5% over 40 runners, 10.2pts below the baseline. 27 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Fleur De Lys Chase at Lingfield (Jan 2022, £79,725). The stable star of the record: First Flow (IRE) — 12 wins from 28 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Aug–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 15.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

16.7%+1.5

n=1,260 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −38.81

New recruits · first run for the yard

13.9%−1.3

n=122 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −52.93

Debutants · first career start

16.6%+1.4

n=302 · A/E 1.37 · £1 +58.82

First-time headgear · true-first definition

17.4%+2.2

n=264 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −24.55

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

15.7%+0.5

n=70 · A/E 1.38 · £1 +11.75

When favourite

37.6%

n=660 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −40.62

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

14.2%−1.0

n=823 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −46.76

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

11.2%−4.0

n=241 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −83.63

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With A P McCoy 44.2% vs 15.2% · n=43

On last-time-out winners 24.6% vs 15.2% · n=643

At Cheltenham 6% vs 15.2% · n=182

At Aintree 3.8% vs 15.2% · n=53

With Tom Siddall 6.4% vs 15.2% · n=140

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 5% vs 15.2% · n=40

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 2,312 322 13.9% −619.63

Chase 1,431 244 17.1% −208.46

NH Flat 405 67 16.5% +56.28

Flat 130 17 13.1% +2.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 1,524 232 15.2% −187.58

Good to Soft 1,098 147 13.4% −365.52

Soft 1,013 158 15.6% −210.61

Heavy 321 49 15.3% −68.44

Good to Firm 225 48 21.3% +40.92

Standard (AW) 90 15 16.7% +27.25

Firm 7 1 14.3% −5.33

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Uttoxeter 350 42 12% −106.25

Huntingdon 269 46 17.1% −3.89

Ludlow 265 44 16.6% −37.24

Warwick 198 28 14.1% −15.54

Cheltenham 182 11 6% −92.10

Exeter 182 23 12.6% −59.36

Southwell 167 27 16.2% −18.33

Chepstow 164 22 13.4% −68.62

Worcester 154 27 17.5% −4.91

Towcester 150 32 21.3% +9.60

Kempton 135 15 11.1% −12.26

Market Rasen 134 25 18.7% −22.11

Hereford 129 18 14% +10.18

Bangor-on-Dee 129 18 14% −62.17

Wincanton 126 18 14.3% −9.21

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 2,012 299 14.9% −536.00

Class 3 782 136 17.4% −132.63

Class 5 777 126 16.2% +15.27

Class 1 285 32 11.2% −71.88

Class 2 263 33 12.5% −73.60

Class 6 158 24 15.2% +30.53

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 765 278 36.3% 1.12 −25.89

2nd–3rd fav 1,231 227 18.4% 1.05 −122.92

4th–6th fav 1,329 117 8.8% 1.05 −218.50

7th+ in betting 953 28 2.9% 0.84 −402.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m5f – 3m 1,415 239 16.9% −186.90

1m5f – 2m 1,354 195 14.4% −218.85

2m1f – 2m4f 1,144 175 15.3% −265.18

Over 3m 320 38 11.9% −72.88

1m2f – 1m4f 40 2 5% −25.00

1m – 1m1f 5 1 20% −0.50

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 178 13 7.3% −75.33

2009 165 19 11.5% −33.62

2010 194 36 18.6% +40.26

2011 218 29 13.3% +17.23

2012 248 32 12.9% −76.01

2013 239 28 11.7% −50.09

2014 266 55 20.7% −3.74

2015 288 49 17% −13.96

2016 324 43 13.3% −96.20

2017 316 52 16.5% −34.09

2018 293 48 16.4% −125.64

2019 246 44 17.9% −34.61

2020 283 53 18.7% −65.82

2021 286 41 14.3% −79.03

2022 268 41 15.3% −27.86

2023 240 37 15.4% −45.27

2024 226 30 13.3% −65.53

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 2,448 321 13.1% −491.54

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 1,342 192 14.3% −292.26

11-13 runners 1,003 110 11% −157.90

5-7 runners 922 211 22.9% −39.45

14-16 runners 600 59 9.8% −155.04

17+ runners 237 10 4.2% −126.87

2-4 runners 174 68 39.1% +2.21

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

82.4% completed · 3,743 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 1,431 74.4% 67 40 252 5 3

Hurdle 2,312 87.4% 34 15 234 5 3

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Sunblazer (IRE)from William Muir 51 8 19 7 Aug 19

Blazon (GB) 50 8 14 28 Oct 22

Milord (GER)from J Hirschberger 40 3 12 11 Jun 18

Gerard Mentor (FR)then Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 39 5 13 28 Nov 24

Shantou Express (IRE)then Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 37 6 13 25 Nov 24

Buffalo Bob (IRE) 36 5 14 1 Mar 13

Rocky's Treasure (IRE) 34 8 13 9 Dec 22

By The Boardwalk (IRE) 34 5 9 13 Nov 18

Ruby Crown (GB) 34 6 13 21 May 13

Good Old Days (IRE)from Ruaidhri Joseph Tierney 34 3 8 1 Oct 11

Two For Gold (IRE)then Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 32 11 17 21 Dec 24

Bishophill Jack (IRE)then Caroline Bailey 31 4 8 12 May 14

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 448 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 19 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 17 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Thomas Mullins (2); 43 had their first archived run for this yard.

16 have since run for another yard, most often for Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls (6); 44 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

91813161316131819191813

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDavid Bass

39% of all rides
17.4% SR · A/E 1.05

RiderRWSR£1

David Bass 1,687 294 17.4% −272.04

Jason Maguire 449 80 17.8% −25.77

Tom Bellamy 222 34 15.3% −42.30

Ciaran Gethings 206 21 10.2% −98.01

Sean Quinlan 197 31 15.7% +10.41

Ed Cookson 193 26 13.5% +28.73

Mikey Hamill 144 22 15.3% −26.32

Nick Scholfield 143 19 13.3% −4.91

Tom Siddall 140 9 6.4% −40.75

Charles Greene 76 10 13.2% −2.17

Chester Williams 47 3 6.4% −34.12

A P McCoy 43 19 44.2% +17.12

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

670

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£7.02m

Prize money

2014

Best season · 55 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Two For Gold (IRE) — Fleur De Lys Chase (GBB Race) Lingfield · Jan 2022 · Class 2

£79,725

Chianti Classico (IRE) — Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2024 · Class 1

£70,338

First Flow (IRE) — Matchbook Betting Exchange Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Ascot · Jan 2021 · Grade 1

£59,513

Notable horses

First Flow (IRE) Two For Gold (IRE) Sunblazer (IRE) Blazon (GB) Rocky's Treasure (IRE) Does He Know (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Midnight Legend (GB) 19.7% · 52–264

Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,311 runs since 2008 (494 horses).

Presenting (GB) 16.7% · 37–221

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Kayf Tara (GB) 9.6% · 16–167

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,755 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Flemensfirth (USA) 16.7% · 19–114

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,287 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Alflora (IRE) 12.1% · 12–99

Progeny have won 9.8% of 5,312 runs since 2008 (535 horses).

Getaway (GER) 14.1% · 13–92

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,985 runs since 2016 (1,030 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,690 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,690 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 January 2005 to 31 December 2024.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

31 Dec 24 Warwick Amazing Cleni (FR)J: Ciaran Gethings Happy New Year From Poundland Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Soft · 12 ran 4th 33/1

31 Dec 24 Uttoxeter Seatoit (IRE)J: James Bowen QuinnBet Daily Free Bet Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 9/2

30 Dec 24 Haydock Broomfield Present (IRE)J: Tom Bellamy Betfred Goals Galore Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 25.5f · Soft · 6 ran F 8/1

29 Dec 24 Doncaster Hurlerontheditch (IRE)J: Tom Bellamy Download The At The Races App Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 3 ran 1st 9/4

27 Dec 24 Wetherby Campaign Trail (IRE)J: Tom Bellamy William Hill More Top Prices Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 3rd 2/5F

26 Dec 24 Kempton El Rio (IRE)J: Tom Bellamy Ladbrokes Best Odds Guaranteed On Racing Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 11/1

21 Dec 24 Ascot Two For Gold (IRE)J: Jonathan Burke Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 24f · Good To Soft · 8 ran PU 22/1

21 Dec 24 Ascot Trelawne (GB)J: Tom Bellamy Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 24f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 4/1

21 Dec 24 Hereford Salt Rock (GB)J: Ben Jones Book Your Fishing Trips With DragonBet Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 1st 9/2

20 Dec 24 Uttoxeter Heros De Romay (FR)J: Tom Bellamy Willis Cooper Chartered Accountants Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Soft · 8 ran 6th 7/1

20 Dec 24 Uttoxeter English Willow (GB)J: Tom Bellamy Richard Winterton Auctioneers Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 22f · Soft · 11 ran 3rd 8/1

19 Dec 24 Exeter Zmiinyi (IRE)J: Tom Bellamy Southwest Rail Solutions Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19f · Good To Soft · 15 ran PU 13/2

18 Dec 24 Newbury The Edgar Wallace (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings BetVictor Home Of The Lucky Dip Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 20f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 4th 9/1

18 Dec 24 Newbury Isle Of Gold (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings Visit Warren Greatrex Racing At Rhonehurst EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20.5f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 25/1

18 Dec 24 Ludlow The Kemble Brewery (GB)J: Tom Bellamy Tanners Cava EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 2nd 4/11F

14 Dec 24 Cheltenham Clondaw General (IRE)J: Jonathan Burke Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Registered As The Bristol Novices' Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 24f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 4th 9/2

14 Dec 24 Doncaster Does He Know (GB)J: Ciaran Gethings bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 4th 15/2

14 Dec 24 Cheltenham Destroytheevidence (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Josh Wyke Birthday Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 25.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 5th 7/1

13 Dec 24 Doncaster Faerie Cutlass (GB)J: Gavin Sheehan Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 3rd 11/2

13 Dec 24 Doncaster Bobhopeornohope (IRE)J: Gavin Sheehan Grace And Dotty Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 6/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Kim Bailey's strike rate?: Kim Bailey has won 650 of 4,278 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 15.2% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Kim Bailey do best at?: Towcester by strike rate: 32 wins from 150 runners (21.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Kim Bailey?: David Bass, with 1,687 runners since 2008 — 39% of the total. That pairing has won 294 (17.4%).
What is Kim Bailey's Fair A/E?: 1.06, from 4,273 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.