Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.88).
Deterministic profile computed from 185 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 4%
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0% (n=47, Fair A/E 0.00). The yard also reads well on Good going (6.8%, n=44). The record reads poorly in Flat races — 0% over 40 runners, 3.2pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 3.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−3.2
n=47 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −47.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.2
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
2.6%−0.6
n=38 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −29.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
7.1%+3.9
n=14 · A/E 3.07 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
50%+46.8
n=2 · A/E 9.31 · £1 +7.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4%+0.8
n=99 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −77.12
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.2
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Good going6.8% vs 3.2% · n=44
In Flat races0% vs 3.2% · n=40
With horses switching code0% vs 3.2% · n=35
On Soft going5.3% vs 3.2% · n=57
Over 1m5f – 2m4.7% vs 3.2% · n=64 · A/E 1.27
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle9122.2%−61.00
Flat4000%−40.00
Chase3412.9%−29.50
NH Flat20315%−2.62
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft5735.3%−21.50
Good4436.8%−27.62
Good to Firm2500%−25.00
Good to Soft2400%−24.00
Heavy2400%−24.00
Standard (AW)700%−7.00
Firm400%−4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Tramore1715.9%−14.12
Kilbeggan1600%−16.00
Clonmel1417.1%+7.00
Thurles1100%−11.00
Cork1000%−10.00
Gowran Park1000%−10.00
Wexford9222.2%+5.50
Roscommon900%−9.00
Killarney900%−9.00
Limerick900%−9.00
Wexford800%−8.00
Dundalk (AW)700%−7.00
Punchestown700%−7.00
Listowel700%−7.00
Downpatrick7228.6%+6.50
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite2150%2.31+0.88
2nd–3rd fav18422.2%1.84+10.00
4th–6th fav2414.2%0.93−3.00
7th+ in betting14100%0.00−141.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m6434.7%−34.62
2m1f – 2m4f5523.6%−37.00
2m5f – 3m2514%−20.50
6f – 7f1300%−13.00
1m – 1m1f1200%−12.00
1m2f – 1m4f900%−9.00
Over 3m400%−4.00
Under 6f300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20083700%−37.00
20093000%−30.00
20101218.3%−3.00
20111500%−15.00
2012800%−8.00
2013600%−6.00
20165120%−0.50
2017300%−3.00
2018300%−3.00
2019600%−6.00
2020300%−3.00
2021700%−7.00
2022100%−1.00
2023400%−4.00
20241218.3%+9.00
20251516.7%−9.50
202618211.1%−6.12
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps5911.7%−50.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners6623%−36.00
17+ runners4100%−41.00
11-13 runners3600%−36.00
8-10 runners2926.9%−20.62
5-7 runners13215.4%+0.50
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 48 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 48 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive; 42 had their first archived run for this yard.
5 have since run for another yard; 43 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
1 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
00001100009810
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
7
Archived wins
£75,706
Prize money
2026
Best season · 2 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Maid Ofiron (IRE) — Rivendell International Nursery (50-80) Bellewstown · Aug 2006
£9,329
Shine On Sam (IRE) — Thank You To All Our Sponsors & Supporters In 2026 (c & G) (pro/am) Flat Race Wexford (IRE) · Nov 2026
£7,800
Eve's Hope (IRE) — Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle Clonmel · Dec 2024
Progeny have won 7.2% of 1,019 runs since 2008 (118 horses).
Mull Of Kintyre (USA)5.3% · 1–19
Progeny have won 9% of 2,100 runs since 2008 (160 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 12.2% from 409. Weakest on Soft going: 4.6% from 306.
Kris Kin (USA)0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 7% of 732 runs since 2008 (89 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.8% from 141. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.7% from 219.
Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,898 runs since 2013 (687 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.
Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,496 runs since 2011 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 258 · newest first
The latest 50 of 258 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 20 January 2005 to 4 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
KTB’s figures
the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026
KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 4 Nov 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 1) · to 4 Nov 2026.
Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.
Quick answers
What is M O Quigley's strike rate?
M O Quigley has won 6 of 185 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.2% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is M O Quigley in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is M O Quigley's Fair A/E?
0.88, from 185 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
M O Quigley·SR 3.2%·A/E 0.88
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