What is Patrick Carey's strike rate?

Patrick Carey has won 7 of 258 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.7% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Patrick Carey do best at?

Thurles by strike rate: 1 wins from 37 runners (2.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

What is Patrick Carey's Fair A/E?

0.53, from 258 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Patrick Carey

258 runners in the lifetime window · 29 individual horses

As at 30 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Dec 2024

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

7–258

Wins / Runs

2.7%

Strike rate

n=258

41 (16%)

Placed

0.53

Fair A/E

n=258 · 0.41 incl. margin

−203.67

£1 level stake

n=258 at SP · −78.9%

£115k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.53).

Deterministic profile computed from 258 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 30 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 3.8%

The read

The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 3.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.69 and −110.67 to a £1 stake over 156 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well over 2m1f – 2m4f (6.6%, n=61) and in Chase races (6%, n=67). The market has consistently overbet the yard on Soft going: Fair A/E 0.80 across 93 runners (4.3% strike, −72.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Seskin Flyer (IRE) — 5 wins from 58 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

0%−2.7

n=47 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −47.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−2.7

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Debutants · first career start

0%−2.7

n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

8.3%+5.6

n=12 · A/E 1.79 · £1 +5.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−2.7

n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

When favourite

28.6%

n=7 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −2.00

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

3.8%+1.1

n=156 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −110.67

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−2.7

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Over 2m1f – 2m4f 6.6% vs 2.7% · n=61

In Chase races 6% vs 2.7% · n=67

Off a 8-14-day break 5.7% vs 2.7% · n=35

At trips under 6f 0% vs 2.7% · n=47

Over 2m5f – 3m 0% vs 2.7% · n=38

On Soft going 4.3% vs 2.7% · n=93 · A/E 0.80

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 91 2 2.2% −65.00

Hurdle 86 1 1.2% −74.00

Chase 67 4 6% −50.67

NH Flat 14 0 0% −14.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 93 4 4.3% −72.00

Heavy 60 1 1.7% −48.00

Good 56 2 3.6% −34.67

Good to Soft 18 0 0% −18.00

Good to Firm 16 0 0% −16.00

Standard (AW) 13 0 0% −13.00

Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Thurles 37 1 2.7% −32.67

Tipperary 22 0 0% −22.00

Tramore 15 1 6.7% −3.00

Navan 15 1 6.7% −12.00

Cork 14 0 0% −14.00

Limerick 14 1 7.1% −12.00

Kilbeggan 13 1 7.7% −6.00

Curragh 12 0 0% −12.00

Naas 11 0 0% −11.00

Dundalk (AW) 10 0 0% −10.00

Clonmel 10 0 0% −10.00

Roscommon 9 0 0% −9.00

Fairyhouse 9 0 0% −9.00

Galway 9 0 0% −9.00

Gowran Park 8 0 0% −8.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 6 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 8 2 25% 1.15 −3.00

2nd–3rd fav 24 2 8.3% 0.67 −12.67

4th–6th fav 42 2 4.8% 0.65 −21.00

7th+ in betting 184 1 0.5% 0.18 −167.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m5f – 2m 71 1 1.4% −59.00

2m1f – 2m4f 61 4 6.6% −44.67

Under 6f 47 0 0% −47.00

2m5f – 3m 38 0 0% −38.00

6f – 7f 21 0 0% −21.00

1m2f – 1m4f 11 2 18.2% +15.00

1m – 1m1f 8 0 0% −8.00

Over 3m 1 0 0% −1.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 47 0 0% −47.00

2009 40 0 0% −40.00

2010 14 2 14.3% +12.00

2011 10 0 0% −10.00

2012 29 0 0% −29.00

2013 22 0 0% −22.00

2014 9 0 0% −9.00

2015 5 0 0% −5.00

2016 7 0 0% −7.00

2017 6 1 16.7% +6.00

2018 16 2 12.5% −9.67

2019 15 1 6.7% −12.00

2020 4 0 0% −4.00

2021 12 0 0% −12.00

2022 4 0 0% −4.00

2023 11 1 9.1% −4.00

2024 7 0 0% −7.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 166 7 4.2% −111.67

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 95 3 3.2% −62.00

11-13 runners 64 2 3.1% −47.67

17+ runners 56 0 0% −56.00

8-10 runners 32 1 3.1% −30.00

5-7 runners 11 1 9.1% −8.00

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Seskin Flyer (IRE) 58 5 19 28 Sep 23

Fly By Magic (IRE) 28 0 4 11 Sep 10

Summers King (IRE) 20 0 4 4 Oct 16

Code Dancer (IRE) 20 0 5 21 Feb 14

Driveheron (IRE)from Andrew Slattery · then Ms Joanna Morgan 16 2 3 1 Mar 12

Really Smart (IRE) 12 0 1 20 Nov 14

Asamara (IRE) 11 0 0 6 Oct 10

Real Special (IRE) 10 0 0 9 Aug 09

Jimmy Maguire (IRE) 10 0 2 14 Jul 09

Samara Jazz (IRE) 9 0 1 19 May 13

Seskin Flash (IRE)then J P Dempsey 8 0 2 8 Dec 24

Flight Dream (FR)from Michael Quinlan 8 0 0 22 Jun 09

All 29 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 29 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive; 24 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard; 26 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

0070006050017

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderAndrew Ring

13% of all rides
3% SR · A/E 0.47

RiderRWSR£1

Andrew Ring 33 1 3% −21.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

£260k

Prize money

2007

Best season · 5 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Lady Meagan (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Auction Maiden Navan · Oct 2007

£11,747

Seskin Flyer (IRE) — Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Chase Thurles · Dec 2018

£11,396

Seskin Flyer (IRE) — Coral 100K Cash Cheltenham Smart Money Series Handicap Chase Navan · Mar 2019

£10,164

Notable horses

Seskin Flyer (IRE) Fly By Magic (IRE) Mountain Melody (IRE) Driveheron (IRE) Broomfield Lad (IRE) Lady Meagan (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Broadway Flyer (USA) 8.6% · 5–58

Progeny have won 11% of 743 runs since 2008 (68 horses).

Indian Rocket (GB) 0% · 0–28

Progeny have won 7.7% of 1,230 runs since 2008 (129 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 11.1% from 171. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 4.7% from 301.

Anshan (GB) 0% · 0–20

Progeny have won 9.6% of 4,216 runs since 2008 (387 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.2% from 520.

Desert King (IRE) 0% · 0–20

Progeny have won 9% of 1,142 runs since 2008 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.4% from 157.

Catcher In The Rye (IRE) 12.5% · 2–16

Progeny have won 8.9% of 2,570 runs since 2008 (239 horses).

Mull of Kintyre (USA) 0% · 0–16

Progeny have won 9% of 2,100 runs since 2008 (160 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 12.2% from 409. Weakest on Soft going: 4.6% from 306.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 30 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 522 · newest first

The latest 50 of 522 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 8 December 2024.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

08 Dec 24 Cork Seskin Flash (IRE)J: Liam Quinlan Greenvalley Transport Novice Handicap Hurdle (80-102)20f · Soft · 22 ran 4th 16/1

28 Nov 24 Thurles Seskin Flash (IRE)J: Liam Quinlan Horse & Jockey Handicap Hurdle (80-95)16f · Good · 18 ran 8th 14/1

26 Oct 24 Galway Seskin Flash (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Corrib Oil Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding To Soft · 14 ran 5th 20/1

17 Jun 24 Kilbeggan Seskin Flash (IRE)J: Mr A P Ryan www.kilbegganraces.com (Q.R.) Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 3rd 8/1

01 Jun 24 Tramore Seskin Flash (IRE)J: Richard Condon Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Maiden Hurdle22f · Yielding · 12 ran 4th 40/1

07 May 24 Ballinrobe Seskin Flash (IRE)J: Mr D Doyle Harrington Concrete & Quarries Flat Race17f · Yielding · 16 ran 10th 100/1

27 Jan 24 Fairyhouse Seskin Flash (IRE)J: Mr A P Ryan SBK (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Soft · 10 ran 8th 125/1

27 Dec 23 Limerick Seskin Flash (IRE)J: Mr A P Ryan Whitebox Property Group Flat Race16f · Heavy · 6 ran 5th 20/1

28 Sep 23 Clonmel Seskin Flyer (IRE)J: Daniel King Tickincor Handicap Chase (0-102)18f · Soft To Heavy · 11 ran 10th 10/1

28 Aug 23 Downpatrick Seskin Flyer (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Dennison JCB Handicap Chase (0-95)19f · Good · 11 ran 6th 10/1

08 Aug 23 Roscommon Seskin Flyer (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Larry O'Farrelly Memorial Handicap Chase (0-102)21.5f · Soft To Heavy · 13 ran 9th 15/2

21 Jul 23 Kilbeggan Seskin Flyer (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Summer Saturday Festival August 12th Handicap Chase (0-95)19f · Soft · 14 ran 1st 6/1

04 Jul 23 Tipperary Seskin Flyer (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Jim Ryan Racecourse Services Handicap Chase (0-102) (Div 2)19.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 4th 14/1

03 Jun 23 Tramore Seskin Flyer (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Pickerdstown Handicap Chase (0-95)21f · Good · 14 ran 3rd 7/1

25 May 23 Limerick Seskin Flyer (IRE)J: Phillip Enright Springfort Hall Hotel Handicap Chase (0-102)22.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 6th 28/1

21 Apr 23 Kilbeggan Seskin Flyer (IRE)J: Sean O'Keeffe Follow Kilbeggan On Facebook Handicap Chase (0-109)19.5f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 5th 25/1

18 Mar 23 Thurles Seskin Flyer (IRE)J: Sean O'Keeffe Jimmy Neville Memorial Handicap Chase (0-109)20.5f · Soft · 13 ran PU 18/1

23 Feb 23 Thurles Seskin Flyer (IRE)J: Mr A P Ryan Thurles Racecourse (Q.R.) Handicap Chase (0-102)22f · Good · 17 ran 5th 40/1

27 May 22 Limerick Seskin Flyer (IRE)J: Sean O'Keeffe Jim Ryan Racecourse Services Handicap Chase (0-95)19.5f · Good · 16 ran 7th 33/1

05 May 22 Tipperary Seskin Flyer (IRE)J: Sean O'Keeffe Tipperary Racecourse Handicap Chase17.5f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 11th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Patrick Carey's strike rate?: Patrick Carey has won 7 of 258 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.7% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Patrick Carey do best at?: Thurles by strike rate: 1 wins from 37 runners (2.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Patrick Carey's Fair A/E?: 0.53, from 258 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.