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Trainer profile

Paul O'Flynn

308 runners in the lifetime window · 52 individual horses
As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 25 days ago 94% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2013→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
23–308
Wins / Runs
7.5%
Strike rate
n=308
70 (23%)
Placed
1.13
Fair A/E
n=308 · 0.91 incl. margin
−126.60
£1 level stake
n=308 at SP · −41.1%
£273k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
5.9%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.13). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 9% off breaks of two months or more (77 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 308 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 9.1% Darragh O'Keeffe: 11.1% from 72
The read

The record is strongest at Killarney (18.8%, n=32) and Clonmel (11.1%, n=45) — all clear of the yard's 7.5% baseline. Darragh O'Keeffe rides 23% of the entries and edges the yard's average (11.1% vs 7.5%, A/E 1.39) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (11.4%, n=70). The record reads poorly off a 8-14-day break — 4.5% over 44 runners, 3pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: West Cork Wildway (IRE) — 5 wins from 38 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
9.1%+1.6
n=77 · A/E 1.62 · £1 −24.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−7.5
n=23 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −23.00
Debutants · first career start
3.4%−4.1
n=29 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −14.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
11.8%+4.3
n=17 · A/E 2.24 · £1 −3.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
5.6%−1.9
n=18 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −10.00
When favourite
60%
n=10 · A/E 2.39 · £1 +12.07
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.6%−0.9
n=196 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −72.67
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.5
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Killarney 18.8% vs 7.5% · n=32
Off a 15-30-day break 11.4% vs 7.5% · n=70
With Darragh O'Keeffe 11.1% vs 7.5% · n=72
At Clonmel 11.1% vs 7.5% · n=45
Off a 8-14-day break 4.5% vs 7.5% · n=44
In Chase races 10% vs 7.5% · n=80
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 192 12 6.3% −101.10
Chase 80 8 10% −25.50
Flat 20 1 5% −5.00
NH Flat 16 2 12.5% +5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 101 7 6.9% −56.43
Good 95 8 8.4% −27.00
Heavy 65 6 9.2% −16.67
Good to Soft 42 2 4.8% −21.50
Good to Firm 4 0 0% −4.00
Standard (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Cork 48 4 8.3% −10.50
Clonmel 45 5 11.1% −13.67
Thurles 39 4 10.3% +0.00
Killarney 32 6 18.8% +13.57
Limerick 25 0 0% −25.00
Listowel 25 1 4% −12.00
Tipperary 18 1 5.6% −16.00
Tramore 18 0 0% −18.00
Galway 14 0 0% −14.00
Wexford 9 1 11.1% −4.00
Punchestown 7 1 14.3% +1.00
Gowran Park 6 0 0% −6.00
Roscommon 6 0 0% −6.00
Ballinrobe 4 0 0% −4.00
Leopardstown 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 11 0 0% −11.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 15 7 46.7% 2.18 +11.40
2nd–3rd fav 57 9 15.8% 1.15 −1.00
4th–6th fav 74 4 5.4% 0.82 −22.00
7th+ in betting 162 3 1.9% 0.69 −115.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
90.1% completed · 272 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 80 87.5% 3 1 6 0 0
Hurdle 192 91.1% 4 1 12 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
West Cork Wildway (IRE) 38 5 13 9 May 26
Quarry Lil (IRE) 36 4 9 3 Jun 23
A Nod To Getaway (IRE) 32 4 13 5 Mar 26
Cregane Ned (IRE) 20 1 6 31 May 25
Holly Flight (FR)from Dan Skelton · then Keith Dalgleish 15 1 6 6 Aug 19
Quarry Rua (IRE) 11 0 1 7 Aug 18
Pops Well (IRE)from Eugene M O'Sullivan 11 2 4 16 Apr 17
Different Spot (IRE)from E Bolger 9 1 2 12 Aug 21
Mississippi River (IRE)from John E Kiely 8 1 3 6 Nov 16
Therellbguddaysyet (IRE)from Michael John O'Connor 7 0 1 18 Oct 26
Brave Endeavour (IRE)from Miss M Harding 7 0 0 1 Jun 26
Russellsbelle (IRE)then Con McSweeney 7 0 3 3 Jun 23
All 52 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 52 horses listed, 23 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Michael Winters (4) and Dan Skelton (3); 29 had their first archived run for this yard.

17 have since run for another yard, most often for Con McSweeney (3) and G Ahern (3); 35 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
100164115063131310
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDarragh O'Keeffe
23% of all rides
11.1% SR · A/E 1.39
RiderRWSR£1
Darragh O'Keeffe 72 8 11.1% −33.93
G B Noonan 58 3 5.2% −32.67
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2013→
23
Archived wins
£273k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 4 wins
West Cork Wildway (IRE) — Boomerang.ie Handicap Hurdle Thurles · Dec 2020
£9,440
West Cork Wildway (IRE) — Betvictor Irish Ebf Beginners Chase Thurles · Nov 2021
£8,260
West Cork Wildway (IRE) — Brenda Sheedy Memorial Handicap Hurdle Cork · Nov 2025
£8,260
Notable horses
West Cork Wildway (IRE) Quarry Lil (IRE) A Nod To Getaway (IRE) Pops Well (IRE) Cregane Ned (IRE) Holly Flight (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Yeats (IRE) 12.2% · 5–41
Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,857 runs since 2013 (709 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.
Jeremy (USA) 11.1% · 4–36
Progeny have won 11.2% of 6,725 runs since 2011 (425 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.5% from 664. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 16.3% from 147. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.8% from 743.
Getaway (GER) 11.4% · 4–35
Progeny have won 11.3% of 11,030 runs since 2016 (1,034 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.
Vinnie Roe (IRE) 4.8% · 1–21
Progeny have won 11.3% of 3,061 runs since 2010 (236 horses). Weakest on Good to Firm going: 7.8% from 166.
Walk In The Park (IRE) 6.7% · 1–15
Progeny have won 13.4% of 7,087 runs since 2011 (711 horses).
Croco Rouge (IRE) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 9% of 723 runs since 2008 (74 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.8% from 120.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 308 · newest first

The latest 50 of 308 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 June 2013 to 18 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Therellbguddaysyet (IRE)J: Mr Andrew Burke-Ott John Thomas McNamara Series (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle24f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran 3rd 17/2
17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Macoo (IRE)J: E Walsh #Thisisracing Maiden Hurdle19f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 4th 100/1
26 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Windy Grey (IRE)J: Kevin A Murphy Kathleen Walsh Memorial Handicap Hurdle22f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 16th 66/1
23 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Macoo (IRE)J: Mr Andrew Burke-Ott Paul Moynihan (Ex VFI President) Memorial Flat Race20f · Good · 11 ran 8th 125/1
22 Aug 26 Killarney (IRE) Therellbguddaysyet (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Moynihan Scaffolding Ltd. And The Warehouse Café Beginners Steeplechase17f · Good · 5 ran 4th 40/1
22 Aug 26 Killarney (IRE) Rebel Budz (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap Hurdle22.5f · Good · 14 ran 4th 17/2
22 Aug 26 Killarney (IRE) Macoo (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe ML Lynch Civil Engineering Ltd. Maiden Hurdle (Div II)16.5f · Good · 16 ran 9th 125/1
22 Aug 26 Killarney (IRE) Windy Grey (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe ML Lynch Civil Engineering Ltd. Maiden Hurdle (Div I)16.5f · Good · 16 ran 13th 300/1
03 Aug 26 Cork (IRE) Windy Grey (IRE)J: Mr Andrew Burke-Ott www.mourneabbeyoil.ie Mares Maiden Hurdle17f · Good · 18 ran 14th 250/1
29 Jul 26 Galway (IRE) Therellbguddaysyet (IRE)J: Dylan O'Connor Tote.ie Money-Back 2nd Every Race Handicap Hurdle22f · Good · 19 ran 5th 20/1
29 Jul 26 Galway (IRE) Tom Mac (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Tote Guaranteed 50K Placepot Maiden Hurdle22f · Good · 20 ran 12th 66/1
30 Jun 26 Wexford Therellbguddaysyet (IRE)J: Luke Burke Ott Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Chase23f · Good · 12 ran PU 7/1
01 Jun 26 Listowel Brave Endeavour (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe John B. Keane Beginners Chase19f · Yielding · 6 ran 6th 28/1
30 May 26 Listowel Therellbguddaysyet (IRE)J: G B Noonan Insurance Wise Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 8th 14/1
21 May 26 Limerick Brave Endeavour (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Calor Gas Handicap Chase (0-100)17.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 8th 8/1
11 May 26 Killarney Therellbguddaysyet (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Killarney Oaks Hotel Handicap Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 5th 6/1
09 May 26 Killarney West Cork Wildway (IRE)J: Alan O'Sullivan Tote Killarney National Handicap Chase26f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 5th 13/2
16 Apr 26 Limerick Brave Endeavour (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Professor Maria Hinfelaar Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)19.5f · Soft To Heavy · 13 ran 4th 28/1
06 Apr 26 Cork Brave Endeavour (IRE)J: G B Noonan Finbarr Quaid Electrical Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16f · Yielding · 20 ran 13th 33/1
06 Apr 26 Cork Tom Mac (IRE)J: Eoin Staples Leisure Dome Ltd. Marquee Hire Maiden Hurdle23f · Yielding · 13 ran 6th 6/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul O'Flynn's strike rate?
Paul O'Flynn has won 23 of 308 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.5% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul O'Flynn do best at?
Killarney by strike rate: 6 wins from 32 runners (18.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul O'Flynn?
Darragh O'Keeffe, with 72 runners since 2008 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (11.1%).
What is Paul O'Flynn's Fair A/E?
1.13, from 308 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 12 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).