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Trainer profile

Paul Stafford

141 runners in the last 5 seasons · 21 individual horses
As at 28 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 87 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
5–141
Wins / Runs
3.5%
Strike rate
n=141
21 (15%)
Placed
0.95
Fair A/E
n=141 · 0.74 incl. margin
−89.00
£1 level stake
n=141 at SP · −63.1%
£70,129
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
8.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.95). With a claiming rider up the record reads 6% (68 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 141 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 28 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 5.9%
The read

The yard also reads well in Chase races (7.9%, n=38). The record reads poorly in Hurdle races — 0% over 40 runners, 3.5pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Volkswagen Craddockstown Novice Chase at Punchestown (IRE) (Nov 2006, £39,060). The stable star of the record: Gibbstown (IRE) — 5 wins from 50 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.8%+1.3
n=21 · A/E 1.65 · £1 −15.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.5
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.5
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.5
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
50%+46.5
n=2 · A/E 6.11 · £1 +3.50
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.9%+2.4
n=68 · A/E 1.37 · £1 −22.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Chase races 7.9% vs 3.5% · n=38
In Hurdle races 0% vs 3.5% · n=40
Off a 31-60-day break 0% vs 3.5% · n=31
With horses switching code 0% vs 3.5% · n=30
With claiming riders up 5.9% vs 3.5% · n=68
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 56 2 3.6% −42.50
Hurdle 40 0 0% −40.00
Chase 38 3 7.9% +0.50
NH Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 46 1 2.2% −40.50
Good 45 1 2.2% −39.00
Good to Soft 26 3 11.5% +14.50
Standard (AW) 12 0 0% −12.00
Heavy 9 0 0% −9.00
Good to Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 12 0 0% −12.00
Downpatrick 9 1 11.1% −3.50
Fairyhouse 8 1 12.5% −0.50
Roscommon 8 0 0% −8.00
Limerick 8 0 0% −8.00
Curragh 8 0 0% −8.00
Clonmel 7 0 0% −7.00
Down Royal 7 0 0% −7.00
Tramore 7 0 0% −7.00
Thurles 7 0 0% −7.00
Navan 7 0 0% −7.00
Bellewstown 6 0 0% −6.00
Punchestown 6 0 0% −6.00
Kilbeggan 5 0 0% −5.00
Ballinrobe 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 2 1 50% +8.00
Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 2 0 0% 0.00 −2.00
2nd–3rd fav 11 3 27.3% 2.13 +8.00
4th–6th fav 19 1 5.3% 0.69 −9.00
7th+ in betting 109 1 0.9% 0.48 −86.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Are You In Or Out (IRE)then Conor David Maxwell 25 2 5 16 Oct 25
Joven De Corazon (IRE) 17 0 2 17 Nov 23
Just For Yuse (IRE)from T G McCourt 14 0 2 8 May 26
Rose Of Kalanisi (IRE)then Conor David Maxwell 14 0 2 18 Jan 25
Well Joey (IRE)from Mrs Prunella Dobbs 13 0 3 27 Jul 23
Dugort Bay (IRE) 7 0 0 29 Nov 23
Stealing Kisses (IRE) 7 0 0 11 May 23
Threehavenine (IRE) 6 0 0 5 Oct 24
Lawful Ruler (IRE) 5 1 2 2 Aug 26
Spricklestown (IRE)then Tom Dreaper 5 0 0 19 Nov 24
Dubai Devils (IRE) 5 1 3 21 Oct 22
Golden Ferret (IRE) 5 1 2 27 May 22
All 21 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 21 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 17 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard, most often for Conor David Maxwell (2); 18 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00141559000000
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Conor Maxwell 25 0 0% −25.00
P J O'Hanlon 14 1 7.1% −8.50
Mark McDonagh 11 0 0% −11.00
James Ryan 11 0 0% −11.00
Mr T J Stafford 7 1 14.3% +16.00
Patrick M O'Brien 7 0 0% −7.00
Donagh Meyler 6 0 0% −6.00
Sadhbh Tormey 5 1 20% +2.50
Chris Hayes 5 1 20% +1.00
Jamie Powell 4 0 0% −4.00
Leigh Roche 4 0 0% −4.00
Peter Carberry 4 0 0% −4.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
42
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£576k
Prize money
2015
Best season · 6 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Blueberry Boy (IRE) — Volkswagen Craddockstown Novice Chase Punchestown (IRE) · Nov 2006 · Grade 2
£39,060
Blueberry Boy (IRE) — Irish Sun Handicap Chase (0-140) Punchestown · Apr 2009
£26,040
Blueberry Boy (IRE) — Bar One Racing Handicap Chase (0-140) Punchestown · Nov 2009
£15,299
Notable horses
Gibbstown (IRE) Well Joey (IRE) Blueberry Boy (IRE) Will Jamie Run (IRE) Fenlon's Hill (IRE) Dubai Devils (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Inns Of Court (IRE) 8% · 2–25
Progeny have won 9.3% of 2,236 runs since 2008 (232 horses).
Finsceal Fior (IRE) 0% · 0–17
Progeny have won 7.6% of 565 runs since 2008 (47 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 11.4% from 140.
Dandy Man (IRE) 0% · 0–14
Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,946 runs since 2008 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.
Kalanisi (IRE) 0% · 0–14
Progeny have won 10.5% of 6,745 runs since 2008 (648 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 355.
Kayf Tara (GB) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,743 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.
Fame And Glory (GB) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,208 runs since 2008 (504 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 887 · newest first

The latest 50 of 887 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 16 January 2005 to 2 August 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
02 Aug 26 Galway (IRE) Lawful Ruler (IRE)J: Mr T J Stafford Kinlay Hostel Handicap Steeplechase22.5f · Good · 18 ran PU 66/1
24 Jul 26 Cork (IRE) Kuma Queen (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Racing Again August 3rd Handicap12f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 12th 100/1
30 Jun 26 Wexford Lawful Ruler (IRE)J: Mr T J Stafford Racing Again July 3rd Rated Novice Chase19.5f · Good · 10 ran PU 100/1
08 May 26 Downpatrick Just For Yuse (IRE)J: Michael Kenneally Peter Fitzpatrick & Sons Estate Agents And Chartered Surveyors Handicap Chase (0-100)19.5f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 4/1
03 May 26 Sligo Just For Yuse (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Tote.ie Apprentice Handicap (0-60)14f · Yielding To Soft · 14 ran 9th 20/1
20 Apr 26 Tramore Lawful Ruler (IRE)J: Mr T J Stafford O'Driscolls Irish Whiskey Hunters Chase21.5f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 7th 12/1
12 Apr 26 Down Royal Just For Yuse (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Fibrus Total Home Wi-Fi Handicap Chase (0-100)26f · Good · 15 ran 4th 12/1
06 Apr 26 Cork Lawful Ruler (IRE)J: Mr T J Stafford John Thomas McNamara Series Maiden Hunters Chase24.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 1st 22/1
29 Mar 26 Downpatrick Lawful Ruler (IRE)J: Mr T J Stafford Boardsmill Sires Maiden Hunters Chase23.5f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 3rd 40/1
17 Mar 26 Wexford Just For Yuse (IRE)J: John Shinnick Botanica International Handicap Chase (0-100)19.5f · Soft · 16 ran 6th 28/1
19 Feb 26 Thurles Just For Yuse (IRE)J: Mr H C Swan BOYLE Sports (Q.R.) Handicap Chase (0-100)21.5f · Soft To Heavy · 16 ran PU 18/1
11 Jan 26 Punchestown Just For Yuse (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Chase (0-100)19.5f · Soft · 11 ran 2nd 50/1
25 Nov 25 Tramore Just For Yuse (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Ladies Cove Handicap Chase (0-100)21.5f · Soft · 14 ran 9th 33/1
27 Oct 25 Galway Just For Yuse (IRE)J: J M Sheridan Galway Races Handicap (0-60)12f · Heavy · 18 ran 17th 80/1
16 Oct 25 Curragh Are You In Or Out (IRE)J: Sadhbh Tormey 1xbet.ie Supports Irish Racing Handicap7f · Yielding · 26 ran 14th 20/1
04 Oct 25 Curragh Are You In Or Out (IRE)J: Sadhbh Tormey 1xbet.ie Safer Gambling Handicap6f · Soft To Heavy · 15 ran 7th 10/1
27 Sep 25 Curragh Mama Shine (IRE)J: James Ryan Fitzpatrick's Mercedes-Benz Maiden (Div 2)10f · Yielding To Soft · 15 ran 14th 80/1
22 Sep 25 Fairyhouse Are You In Or Out (IRE)J: Colin Keane Return Of The Jumps On October 11th Handicap6f · Yielding · 18 ran 12th 7/2J
19 Aug 25 Roscommon Kuma Queen (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden7.5f · Good · 10 ran 10th 250/1
04 Aug 25 Naas Are You In Or Out (IRE)J: Sadhbh Tormey Curragh To Curragh Cycle On 30th August Handicap (Div 1)7f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 13th 9/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Stafford's strike rate?
Paul Stafford has won 5 of 141 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 3.5% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Paul Stafford's Fair A/E?
0.95, from 141 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 28 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).