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Trainer profile

Paul Stafford

823 runners in the lifetime window · 105 individual horses
As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 12 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
40–823
Wins / Runs
4.9%
Strike rate
n=823
141 (17%)
Placed
1.02
Fair A/E
n=823 · 0.82 incl. margin
−281.51
£1 level stake
n=823 at SP · −34.2%
£469k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
7.7%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, winning with 5% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.02).

Deterministic profile computed from 823 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Mar Adam Short: 6% from 151 Claiming riders: 5.6%
The read

The record is strongest at Hexham (15.9%, n=44) and Fairyhouse (10.8%, n=74) — all clear of the yard's 4.9% baseline. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=56, Fair A/E 0.00). Adam Short rides 18% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (6%, A/E 1.10) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in Class 5 (13.4%, n=67) and in Chase races (9.4%, n=318). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Volkswagen Craddockstown Novice Chase at Punchestown (IRE) (Nov 2006, £39,060). The stable star of the record: Gibbstown (IRE) — 5 wins from 50 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.7%−1.2
n=162 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −65.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
4.2%−0.7
n=48 · A/E 1.25 · £1 −1.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.9
n=56 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −56.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.9
n=36 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −36.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
4.8%−0.1
n=42 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −25.50
When favourite
31.3%
n=16 · A/E 1.24 · £1 +2.99
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.6%+0.7
n=555 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −97.13
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.9
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Hexham 15.9% vs 4.9% · n=44
On last-time-out winners 14.6% vs 4.9% · n=41
In Class 5 13.4% vs 4.9% · n=67
With C&D winners 12.2% vs 4.9% · n=41
In Chase races 9.4% vs 4.9% · n=318
At Fairyhouse 10.8% vs 4.9% · n=74
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 333 7 2.1% −208.00
Chase 318 30 9.4% +55.99
Flat 134 3 2.2% −91.50
NH Flat 38 0 0% −38.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 267 9 3.4% −198.00
Good 234 10 4.3% −16.88
Heavy 146 11 7.5% +2.50
Good to Soft 98 9 9.2% −8.13
Good to Firm 44 1 2.3% −27.00
Standard (AW) 34 0 0% −34.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Fairyhouse 74 8 10.8% +33.50
Downpatrick 46 2 4.3% −37.88
Hexham 44 7 15.9% +6.37
Punchestown 37 2 5.4% −14.00
Navan 35 0 0% −35.00
Down Royal 33 2 6.1% −16.50
Bellewstown 32 0 0% −32.00
Dundalk (AW) 32 0 0% −32.00
Tramore 31 0 0% −31.00
Clonmel 30 1 3.3% −21.00
Limerick 27 0 0% −27.00
Perth 27 1 3.7% −10.00
Sligo 26 2 7.7% +24.00
Roscommon 24 1 4.2% +43.00
Musselburgh 23 2 8.7% −5.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 68 3 4.4% −30.00
Class 5 67 9 13.4% −10.63
Class 6 9 0 0% −9.00
Class 3 7 0 0% −7.00
Class 1 6 0 0% −6.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 20 6 30% 1.24 +3.99
2nd–3rd fav 70 13 18.6% 1.39 +21.00
4th–6th fav 155 10 6.5% 0.91 −57.50
7th+ in betting 578 11 1.9% 0.78 −249.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
81.1% completed · 651 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 318 77.4% 12 16 42 1 1
Hurdle 333 84.7% 8 2 41 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Gibbstown (IRE)from Paul Cashman 50 5 17 16 Jun 18
Fenlon's Hill (IRE) 43 3 14 18 Jul 21
Dubai Devils (IRE) 38 3 16 21 Oct 22
Moonlone Lane (IRE) 37 3 10 26 Dec 17
Well Joey (IRE)from Mrs Prunella Dobbs 36 4 12 27 Jul 23
Better B Quick (IRE)then R P O'Keeffe 26 2 6 1 Jul 16
Are You In Or Out (IRE)then Conor David Maxwell 25 2 5 16 Oct 25
Stander (IRE)from John C McConnell · then R K Watson 19 1 2 26 Nov 20
Joven De Corazon (IRE) 17 0 2 17 Nov 23
Mollies Gent (IRE)from William J Fitzpatrick 17 1 2 11 Oct 17
West Ship Master (IRE)from Mrs Prunella Dobbs 17 0 6 19 Jun 16
Military Hill (IRE)from Adrian McGuinness · then R K Watson 15 1 6 20 Oct 21
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 105 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 27 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Gordon Elliott (4) and Mrs Prunella Dobbs (4); 33 had their first archived run for this yard.

14 have since run for another yard, most often for John C McConnell (4) and Conor David Maxwell (2); 46 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
51313642009444
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderAdam Short
18% of all rides
6% SR · A/E 1.10
RiderRWSR£1
Adam Short 151 9 6% +8.12
Conor Maxwell 149 7 4.7% −54.50
Jonathan Moore 52 3 5.8% −25.25
P J O'Hanlon 32 3 9.4% +0.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
42
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£576k
Prize money
2015
Best season · 6 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Blueberry Boy (IRE) — Volkswagen Craddockstown Novice Chase Punchestown (IRE) · Nov 2006 · Grade 2
£39,060
Blueberry Boy (IRE) — Irish Sun Handicap Chase (0-140) Punchestown · Apr 2009
£26,040
Blueberry Boy (IRE) — Bar One Racing Handicap Chase (0-140) Punchestown · Nov 2009
£15,299
Notable horses
Gibbstown (IRE) Well Joey (IRE) Blueberry Boy (IRE) Will Jamie Run (IRE) Fenlon's Hill (IRE) Dubai Devils (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Court Cave (IRE) 6.8% · 5–74
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,969 runs since 2008 (553 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.
Oscar (IRE) 5.4% · 3–56
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
Bob Back (USA) 10% · 5–50
Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,724 runs since 2008 (338 horses).
Dubai Destination (USA) 7.9% · 3–38
Progeny have won 11% of 6,951 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.9% from 136.
Kayf Tara (GB) 11.1% · 4–36
Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,769 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.
Overbury (IRE) 7.7% · 2–26
Progeny have won 10.7% of 4,657 runs since 2008 (423 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 888 · newest first

The latest 50 of 888 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 16 January 2005 to 31 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
31 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Highland Trail (IRE)J: Mr T J Stafford SIS, Proud Sponsors Of Irish Racing (Pro/Am) Flat Race17f · Good · 14 ran 11th 33/1
02 Aug 26 Galway (IRE) Lawful Ruler (IRE)J: Mr T J Stafford Kinlay Hostel Handicap Steeplechase22.5f · Good · 18 ran PU 66/1
24 Jul 26 Cork (IRE) Kuma Queen (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Racing Again August 3rd Handicap12f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 12th 100/1
30 Jun 26 Wexford Lawful Ruler (IRE)J: Mr T J Stafford Racing Again July 3rd Rated Novice Chase19.5f · Good · 10 ran PU 100/1
08 May 26 Downpatrick Just For Yuse (IRE)J: Michael Kenneally Peter Fitzpatrick & Sons Estate Agents And Chartered Surveyors Handicap Chase (0-100)19.5f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 4/1
03 May 26 Sligo Just For Yuse (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Tote.ie Apprentice Handicap (0-60)14f · Yielding To Soft · 14 ran 9th 20/1
20 Apr 26 Tramore Lawful Ruler (IRE)J: Mr T J Stafford O'Driscolls Irish Whiskey Hunters Chase21.5f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 7th 12/1
12 Apr 26 Down Royal Just For Yuse (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Fibrus Total Home Wi-Fi Handicap Chase (0-100)26f · Good · 15 ran 4th 12/1
06 Apr 26 Cork Lawful Ruler (IRE)J: Mr T J Stafford John Thomas McNamara Series Maiden Hunters Chase24.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 1st 22/1
29 Mar 26 Downpatrick Lawful Ruler (IRE)J: Mr T J Stafford Boardsmill Sires Maiden Hunters Chase23.5f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 3rd 40/1
17 Mar 26 Wexford Just For Yuse (IRE)J: John Shinnick Botanica International Handicap Chase (0-100)19.5f · Soft · 16 ran 6th 28/1
19 Feb 26 Thurles Just For Yuse (IRE)J: Mr H C Swan BOYLE Sports (Q.R.) Handicap Chase (0-100)21.5f · Soft To Heavy · 16 ran PU 18/1
11 Jan 26 Punchestown Just For Yuse (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Chase (0-100)19.5f · Soft · 11 ran 2nd 50/1
25 Nov 25 Tramore Just For Yuse (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Ladies Cove Handicap Chase (0-100)21.5f · Soft · 14 ran 9th 33/1
27 Oct 25 Galway Just For Yuse (IRE)J: J M Sheridan Galway Races Handicap (0-60)12f · Heavy · 18 ran 17th 80/1
16 Oct 25 Curragh Are You In Or Out (IRE)J: Sadhbh Tormey 1xbet.ie Supports Irish Racing Handicap7f · Yielding · 26 ran 14th 20/1
04 Oct 25 Curragh Are You In Or Out (IRE)J: Sadhbh Tormey 1xbet.ie Safer Gambling Handicap6f · Soft To Heavy · 15 ran 7th 10/1
27 Sep 25 Curragh Mama Shine (IRE)J: James Ryan Fitzpatrick's Mercedes-Benz Maiden (Div 2)10f · Yielding To Soft · 15 ran 14th 80/1
22 Sep 25 Fairyhouse Are You In Or Out (IRE)J: Colin Keane Return Of The Jumps On October 11th Handicap6f · Yielding · 18 ran 12th 7/2J
19 Aug 25 Roscommon Kuma Queen (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden7.5f · Good · 10 ran 10th 250/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Stafford's strike rate?
Paul Stafford has won 40 of 823 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.9% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Stafford do best at?
Hexham by strike rate: 7 wins from 44 runners (15.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul Stafford?
Adam Short, with 151 runners since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 9 (6%).
Is Paul Stafford in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Paul Stafford's Fair A/E?
1.02, from 823 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 12 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).