Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−2.7
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.7
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.7
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.8%+2.1
n=21 · A/E 1.51 · £1 −12.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle1915.3%−10.00
Chase1000%−10.00
Flat600%−6.00
NH Flat200%−2.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good1500%−15.00
Soft1100%−11.00
Good to Soft10110%−1.00
Heavy100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Downpatrick1400%−14.00
Down Royal600%−6.00
Perth400%−4.00
Fairyhouse300%−3.00
Musselburgh200%−2.00
Leopardstown200%−2.00
Navan200%−2.00
Sligo2150%+7.00
Curragh100%−1.00
Punchestown100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 4300%−3.00
Class 5200%−2.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav100%0.00−1.00
4th–6th fav9111.1%2.11+0.00
7th+ in betting2700%0.00−27.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f2114.8%−12.00
1m5f – 2m1200%−12.00
2m5f – 3m400%−4.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221100%−11.00
20231500%−15.00
2024700%−7.00
20254125%+5.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps2713.7%−18.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners1218.3%−3.00
8-10 runners800%−8.00
14-16 runners600%−6.00
5-7 runners600%−6.00
17+ runners500%−5.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 11 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 11 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from H Smyth (2); 5 had their first archived run for this yard.
3 have since run for another yard; 8 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00000000033··
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 9.7% of 494 runs since 2008 (51 horses).
Redoute's Choice (AUS)0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 12.6% of 990 runs since 2008 (100 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 18.8% from 128. Weakest on Soft going: 7.7% from 130. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 17.8% from 264. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.9% from 189.
Progeny have won 11.2% of 6,724 runs since 2008 (425 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.5% from 664. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 16.3% from 147. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.8% from 743.
September Storm (GER)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 8.5% of 1,131 runs since 2008 (103 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.4% from 148. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.9% from 101.
Progeny have won 7.5% of 738 runs since 2008 (88 horses).
Morozov (USA)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 10.9% of 2,312 runs since 2008 (155 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.9% from 433.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 226 · newest first
The latest 50 of 226 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 8 May 2005 to 24 October 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is S Wilson's strike rate?
S Wilson has won 1 of 37 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 2.7% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is S Wilson's Fair A/E?
0.81, from 37 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
S Wilson·SR 2.7%·A/E 0.81
KTB
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