What is Tony Newcombe's strike rate?

Tony Newcombe has won 101 of 1,321 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Tony Newcombe do best at?

Chepstow by strike rate: 8 wins from 68 runners (11.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Tony Newcombe?

Eoin Walsh, with 170 runners since 2008 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (11.2%).

What is Tony Newcombe's Fair A/E?

1.03, from 1,316 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Tony Newcombe

1,321 runners in the lifetime window · 154 individual horses

As at 9 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 34 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

101–1,321

Wins / Runs

7.6%

Strike rate

n=1,321

295 (22%)

Placed

1.03

Fair A/E

n=1,316 · 0.88 incl. margin

−316.55

£1 level stake

n=1,321 at SP · −24.0%

£557k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

10%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 70 runners a season, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.03).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,321 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 9 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jul–Sep 25% when favourite Eoin Walsh: 11.2% from 170 Claiming riders: 8% Sends off the favourite in 4% of races

The read

Debutants struggle at 0% (n=57, Fair A/E 0.00). Eoin Walsh rides 13% of the entries and edges the yard's average (11.2% vs 7.6%, A/E 1.72) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Firm going (18.6%, n=70). The record reads poorly in Class 3 — 0% over 44 runners, 7.6pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m – 1m1f: Fair A/E 0.31 across 206 runners (1.9% strike, −130.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Mambo Spirit (IRE) — 11 wins from 80 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jul–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.6% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

5.2%−2.4

n=325 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −93.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

3.7%−3.9

n=82 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −45.00

Debutants · first career start

0%−7.6

n=57 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −57.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.7%+0.1

n=26 · A/E 1.60 · £1 −2.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.3%+0.7

n=36 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −20.25

When favourite

25%

n=56 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −3.55

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8%+0.4

n=436 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −106.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.6

n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On Firm going 18.6% vs 7.6% · n=70

With debutants 0% vs 7.6% · n=57

Over 1m – 1m1f 1.9% vs 7.6% · n=206

With horses switching code 0% vs 7.6% · n=45

In Class 3 0% vs 7.6% · n=44

Off a break of 180+ days 1.9% vs 7.6% · n=104

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 70.9% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,152 92 8% −243.88

Hurdle 98 8 8.2% −9.17

NH Flat 52 1 1.9% −44.50

Chase 19 0 0% −19.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 583 41 7% −191.13

Good 232 17 7.3% −57.25

Good to Firm 187 9 4.8% −46.00

Good to Soft 115 7 6.1% −33.00

Soft 105 11 10.5% −26.42

Firm 70 13 18.6% +28.75

Heavy 29 3 10.3% +8.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 185 14 7.6% −95.00

Bath 173 18 10.4% −46.75

Wolverhampton (AW) 163 7 4.3% −105.00

Southwell (AW) 118 8 6.8% −16.00

Lingfield (AW) 69 7 10.1% −2.63

Chepstow 68 8 11.8% +74.00

Salisbury 59 6 10.2% −9.00

Brighton 58 6 10.3% +14.00

Chelmsford (AW) 47 5 10.6% +28.50

Newton Abbot 27 4 14.8% +36.33

Windsor 25 1 4% −12.00

Exeter 23 1 4.3% −17.00

Nottingham 19 1 5.3% −2.00

Newbury 18 0 0% −18.00

Worcester 17 0 0% −17.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 675 60 8.9% −24.75

Class 5 335 20 6% −158.55

Class 4 195 15 7.7% −53.75

Class 2 44 4 9.1% −23.00

Class 3 44 0 0% −44.00

Class 7 26 2 7.7% −10.50

Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 75 18 24% 1.08 −7.80

2nd–3rd fav 226 36 15.9% 1.11 +3.75

4th–6th fav 355 30 8.5% 1.06 −45.50

7th+ in betting 665 17 2.6% 0.82 −267.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 370 31 8.4% −8.75

1m2f – 1m4f 312 31 9.9% −37.13

Under 6f 215 20 9.3% −59.50

1m – 1m1f 206 4 1.9% −130.50

1m5f – 2m 119 7 5.9% −70.50

2m1f – 2m4f 58 3 5.2% −29.50

2m5f – 3m 35 5 14.3% +25.33

Over 3m 6 0 0% −6.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 143 8 5.6% −67.67

2009 146 12 8.2% −6.63

2010 102 9 8.8% +5.50

2011 134 16 11.9% −9.00

2012 129 7 5.4% −79.25

2013 84 9 10.7% −25.25

2014 88 11 12.5% −16.00

2015 53 5 9.4% −11.25

2016 64 6 9.4% −13.00

2017 66 2 3% −54.00

2018 74 4 5.4% −2.00

2019 44 1 2.3% −32.00

2020 46 3 6.5% −9.50

2021 48 2 4.2% −27.00

2022 33 2 6.1% −10.50

2023 32 2 6.3% −14.00

2024 19 1 5.3% +48.00

2025 6 0 0% −6.00

2026 10 1 10% +13.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,031 89 8.6% −160.13

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

11-13 runners 487 25 5.1% −218.00

8-10 runners 417 42 10.1% +58.75

14-16 runners 214 11 5.1% −82.17

5-7 runners 161 22 13.7% −50.13

17+ runners 38 1 2.6% −21.00

2-4 runners 4 0 0% −4.00

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Mambo Spirit (IRE)from Stef Higgins 80 11 23 12 Jul 17

Spellmaker (GB) 57 9 17 24 Oct 18

My Meteor (GB) 44 5 11 15 Sep 18

Signora Frasi (IRE)from John M Oxx 43 3 12 22 Aug 13

Bug Boy (IRE)from Paul George 41 6 13 6 Oct 26

Noah Jameel (GB) 37 5 13 16 May 11

Kay Sera (GB) 34 3 8 2 Jul 20

Witchry (GB)from Michael Jarvis 34 4 14 5 Mar 13

Holden Eagle (GB) 33 2 13 28 Dec 12

Jocheski (IRE)from M J Wallace 30 3 8 20 Sep 11

Hanoverian Baron (GB)from David Nicholls 28 6 12 30 Jan 14

Jolly Ranch (GB) 26 3 10 30 Apr 13

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 154 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 38 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from James Given (3) and Stef Higgins (3); 22 had their first archived run for this yard.

8 have since run for another yard; 52 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

691147510109765

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderEoin Walsh

13% of all rides
11.2% SR · A/E 1.72

RiderRWSR£1

Eoin Walsh 170 19 11.2% +7.00

Fergus Sweeney 103 6 5.8% −49.50

Dane O'Neill 86 9 10.5% −30.25

Andrew Thornton 55 3 5.5% −33.50

William Cox 54 2 3.7% −31.50

Andrew Tinkler 39 2 5.1% +12.00

David Kenny 35 1 2.9% −28.50

Steve Drowne 34 2 5.9% −8.00

Chris Catlin 31 0 0% −31.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

146

Archived wins

£836k

Prize money

2011

Best season · 16 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Hanoverian Baron (GB) — sportingbet.com Jorvik Handicap York · May 2010 · Class 2

£25,904

Gaelic Princess (GB) — E.B.F. Lochsong Fillies' Handicap Salisbury · Aug 2006 · Class 2

£15,580

Witchry (GB) — Racing Welfare Grey Horse Handicap (for Grey Horses Only) Newmarket · Aug 2010 · Class 4

£12,462

Notable horses

Mambo Spirit (IRE) Spellmaker (GB) Majehar (GB) Gaelic Princess (GB) Noah Jameel (GB) Bug Boy (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 12.8% · 11–86

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,871 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.

Compton Place (GB) 10.1% · 8–79

Progeny have won 8.5% of 8,347 runs since 2008 (515 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.5% from 165.

Green Desert (USA) 16.1% · 10–62

Progeny have won 11% of 3,324 runs since 2008 (251 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.8% from 269. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.4% from 147.

Bahamian Bounty (GB) 10.5% · 6–57

Progeny have won 9.6% of 9,353 runs since 2008 (598 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 1% from 202.

Kheleyf (USA) 15.8% · 9–57

Progeny have won 8.7% of 10,551 runs since 2008 (676 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 12.2% from 131. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 880.

Indian Ridge (IRE) 7% · 3–43

Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,484 runs since 2008 (142 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,891 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,891 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 6 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

06 Oct 26 Brighton Bug Boy (IRE)J: Taryn Langley Bet £20 Get £40 In Free Bets At matchbook.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 8th 12/1

01 Sep 26 Brighton Bug Boy (IRE)J: Taryn Langley Follow Matchbook On X Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Good · 8 ran 1st 22/1

15 Jul 26 Bath Whisper Of Mist (GB)J: Jack Doughty Stakes Are Always High Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Firm · 7 ran 7th 200/1

15 Jul 26 Bath Bug Boy (IRE)J: Jack Doughty Wiltshire And Bath Air Ambulance Charity Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11.5f · Firm · 8 ran 7th 28/1

06 Jun 26 Chepstow Bug Boy (IRE)J: Taryn Langley Capital Windscreens Supporting Mental Health HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Soft · 9 ran 6th 14/1

14 May 26 Salisbury Krystyna (GB)J: George Wood Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 3 · 10f · Good · 11 ran 11th 300/1

13 May 26 Bath Whisper Of Mist (GB)J: Alistair Rawlinson Platinum Motor Group Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Firm · 6 ran 6th 300/1

04 Feb 26 Kempton (AW) Liricist (IRE)J: Alistair Rawlinson Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 9 ran 9th 50/1

04 Feb 26 Kempton (AW) Whisper Of Mist (GB)J: Alistair Rawlinson Get Daily Price Boosts At Unibet Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 11th 250/1

14 Jan 26 Kempton (AW) Whisper Of Mist (GB)J: Alistair Rawlinson Bet 20 Get 20 With Unibet Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 13th 300/1

22 Dec 25 Lingfield (AW) Liricist (IRE)J: Jack Dace Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 66/1

16 Oct 25 Brighton Princess Jastar (IRE)J: Taryn Langley Starsports.Bet HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 10th 125/1

16 Oct 25 Brighton Liricist (IRE)J: Jack Callan Star Sports Brighton Owners Series HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 8th 40/1

14 Sep 25 Bath Princess Jastar (IRE)J: Kieran O'Neill Bath Rugby HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 9th 125/1

13 Sep 25 Bath Bug Boy (IRE)J: Mr Henry Main Signs Express 'Confined' Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 6 · 11.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 5th 14/1

13 Sep 25 Bath Liricist (IRE)J: Jack Callan Euram Air Leases Ireland Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 8f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 8th 28/1

14 Oct 24 Kempton (AW) Tarka Country (GB)J: Sorin Moldoveanu Unibet More Extra Place Races Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 12th 300/1

14 Sep 24 Chester Bug Boy (IRE)J: Niall Houlihan Edinburgh Gin Jump Jockeys Challenge Handicap (Professional Jump Jockeys) (Div 1)Class 4 · 12.5f · Soft · 10 ran 4th 25/1

10 Sep 24 Leicester Liricist (IRE)J: Lewis Edmunds It's National Racehorse Week NurseryClass 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 6th 11/2

02 Sep 24 Chepstow Liricist (IRE)J: Ray Dawson AK BETS Home Of Free Bets NurseryClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 1st 66/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 6 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · to 6 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Tony Newcombe's strike rate?: Tony Newcombe has won 101 of 1,321 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tony Newcombe do best at?: Chepstow by strike rate: 8 wins from 68 runners (11.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Tony Newcombe?: Eoin Walsh, with 170 runners since 2008 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (11.2%).
What is Tony Newcombe's Fair A/E?: 1.03, from 1,316 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.