4:10 Ripon
A competitive Class 5 handicap over the minimum trip at Ripon on good ground brings together nine sprinters, several with previous experience at the track. The KTB Fit scores identify a clear top four, headed by Our Absent Friends on 69, with Rock Of England, Mark's Choice and Thornaby Pearl closely grouped behind on 61-58. The remainder of the field sits in the low-to-mid 40s, suggesting a race where the principals hold the stronger claims on recent form and course knowledge.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader scenario with high confidence, as Our Absent Friends is the only confirmed front-runner and should be allowed an uncontested lead from his high draw. The rest of the field is dominated by hold-up types, with four runners habitually coming from the rear and only Canaria Queen likely to race prominently. The key question is whether the uncontested leader can dictate terms and prove hard to peg back by the closers in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Our Absent Friends KTB Selection69/100
Our Absent Friends is a fair 8-year-old who boasts a solid record at Ripon, including a win from five runs at the track. He has won six times over this 5f trip overall and showed his best form when winning here on his penultimate start from the recent form figures of 791915. The yard holds a 23% strike rate at the course from 13 runs while the horse is 1-16 on good ground. Dropping in class looks a positive and his front-running style, which he tends to employ with medium confidence, aligns perfectly with the expected uncontested lead. Jason Hart teams up with trainer Tristan Davidson, whose combination has produced a 27/137 (20%) record with an A/E of 1.12 and +£31.36 LSP.
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2Rock Of England61/100
Rock Of England is a fair performer who arrives in solid form having won three of his last six starts from the figures 312144. He has won over course and distance and acts on good ground with three wins from 20 starts. The trainer's modest 10% strike-rate at Ripon is offset by an A/E of 1.01 while Oisin Murphy takes the ride, a jockey who has a 23% strike rate at the track from 13 rides. Dropping in class is another plus for this 6-year-old, though his held-up style with high confidence means he will need the leader to come back to him in what looks a race that could suit the front-runner.
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3Mark's Choice59/100
Mark's Choice is a modest 10-year-old who has been a regular around here and knows his way around Ripon, with eight course wins from 25 runs. He drops back to 5f today having last run over 6f, a trip at which he has won twice from six attempts, and he has a solid record on good ground with six wins from 22 starts. Trainer Gemma Tutty has a 15% strike rate from 41 runs at the track while Connor Beasley is aboard; their combination shows 14/171 (8%) with an A/E of 0.64. His held-up run style with medium confidence will see him needing to come from off the pace against a likely clear leader.
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4Thornaby Pearl58/100
Thornaby Pearl is a modest performer with a solid course record here, winning two of 11 starts at Ripon. Recent form of 421131 shows consistent competitiveness at this level and he has won six times over today's 5f trip. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at the track from 90 runs is a negative though he remains well suited by good ground with three wins from 14 starts. Oliver Carmichael claims 7lb for Adrian Nicholls, whose record together reads 1/7 (14%). Like most of his rivals he is a held-up type with medium confidence, so the race shape may not play to his strengths.
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5Betweenthesticks49/100
Betweenthesticks is a modest performer who has been placed three times from six runs at Ripon without winning. Consistent enough on good ground with three wins from 17 starts and has also won at this trip, though his held-up style is shared by much of the field.
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6Glory Fighter48/100
Glory Fighter is a modest performer who has won six times at this trip but has become harder to win with lately and is now on a long losing run. He has three placed efforts from 19 starts on good ground and has run respectably here without winning.
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7Canaria Queen47/100
Canaria Queen is a modest performer with a solid course record here at Ripon where she has won once from 12 starts. She has been competitive in recent runs without quite getting her head in front and holds a good record at this trip with eight wins from 32 starts, while her prominent run style could see her chase the leader.
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8Marajito43/100
Marajito is a modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track from four runs. Dropping back from 6f should suit having scored twice at 5f in the past, though the recent form of 165427 shows inconsistency.
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9Happier34/100
Happier is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and is stepping up in class after his last run over 6f. He has won at today's trip but his two runs at Ripon have produced no better than fifth.
KTB verdict
Our Absent Friends looks to hold all the aces in a race that should play to his strengths. The selection is a fair 8-year-old with a solid record here, including a win from five runs at Ripon, and his front-running style is ideally suited to the projected lone-leader pace shape that can be difficult for closers to overcome. He drops in class having shown his best form when winning at this track on his penultimate start, with the yard in form at the course. The main dangers are likely to come from Rock Of England, who arrives in solid form and has won over course and distance, and the course specialist Mark's Choice, who knows his way around Ripon better than most. Thornaby Pearl cannot be entirely dismissed either given his recent consistency at this level.
KTB Selection Our Absent Friends
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 31 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Our Absent Friends | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Rock Of England | 11/4 | Bet365 |
| Mark's Choice | 4/1 | 7Bet |
| Thornaby Pearl | 6/1 | William Hill |
| Betweenthesticks | 18/1 | 7Bet |
| Glory Fighter | 33/1 | Midnite |
| Canaria Queen | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Marajito | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Happier | 7/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 4:10 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ripon results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Our Absent Friends, whose front-running style with medium confidence fits the lone-leader pace shape with high confidence.
How many course wins does Mark's Choice have at Ripon?
Eight wins from 25 runs at the track.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Ripon with Our Absent Friends' yard?
23% strike rate at Ripon from 13 runs with an A/E of 1.51.
Which runner has won the most times over 5f?
Our Absent Friends with six wins at the trip, followed by Mark's Choice and Glory Fighter who have each won six times at 5f.
Who are the two most experienced trainers at Ripon in this field?
Tim Easterby with 2413 runs at the track and Ruth Carr with 372 runs at Ripon.
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