5:10 Wolverhampton (AW)
This Class 6 handicap division at Wolverhampton over 7f36y on standard ground brings together an eleven-strong field of largely limited performers. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Distillation heading the numbers on 57, followed closely by Rovinia, Based, King Cherry and Snooze Lane. Recent form is mixed across the board, but several hold prior course-and-distance experience that could prove significant given the strong pace anticipated.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is likely with at least two habitual front-runners present, notably King Cherry and Bossy Parker, which raises the prospect of the speed collapsing late on. This shape should play to the strengths of the hold-up performers, of which there are several among the principals including the selection, Rovinia, Based and Snooze Lane. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the race will fall into the hands of those produced late with a strong run from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Distillation KTB Selection57/100
Distillation is a limited performer who has already shown what he can do at this track and trip, winning once from three runs here and scoring over today's distance. He has been consistent enough on standard ground with a win and two places from five starts. The three-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, a run-style that looks ideal given the expected strong pace. Mark Usher's modest 8% strike-rate at Wolverhampton is offset by the strong 16% record of claiming jockey Rose Dawes from her limited rides at the venue. Trainer and jockey combined show a healthy 23% strike-rate with a positive A/E of 1.81 and LSP of +£53.00. His recent form of 924156 suggests he remains competitive at this level.
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2Rovinia53/100
Rovinia is a limited performer who has been consistent in recent months with a string of placed efforts, including figures of 522213. The four-year-old has already won twice at this trip and has shown some ability on standard going with one win and two places from seven starts. She is usually held up and produces her effort late, which should suit the anticipated strong pace. Her sole run here resulted in a modest seventh, but the yard and Billy Loughnane both have solid records at Wolverhampton, the trainer at 13% and the jockey at 19%. Recent consistency gives her every chance of being involved once again.
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3Based52/100
Based is a limited performer who has already won over this trip and on this track from four runs. The three-year-old steps back up from 6f today and sports first-time headgear which could sharpen him, though his recent form of 717340 has been patchy. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence, fitting the race shape well. Trainer William Knight and jockey Luke Morris both have solid records at Wolverhampton without setting the place alight, the yard at 14% and the jockey at 12%. The combination of course success, trip suitability and new headgear keeps him firmly in the mix.
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4King Cherry49/100
King Cherry has shown only limited ability across eight runs and looks up against it from stall 10 in a race where his recent form of 867640 has been poor. He has failed to win or place in two runs here and four starts on standard going. The three-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace, which will be tested by the strong pace shape. The yard and jockey both have solid records at Wolverhampton, Stuart Williams at 15% and Silvestre De Sousa at 17%. Stepping back up to 7f asks a fresh question as he was unsuccessful at the trip earlier in his career.
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5Snooze Lane47/100
Snooze Lane is a limited performer who has won four times here from 30 starts but looks no better than modest on recent evidence shown by his figures of /9823-. The seven-year-old stays 7f and handles the surface well enough with four wins from 28 starts on standard. He is usually held up and produces his effort late. The yard's poor 4% strike-rate at the track is another negative though Jack Mitchell's 17% record is more encouraging. His course record remains the strongest positive in a field of modest sorts.
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6King Sharja44/100
King Sharja is a limited class performer with a modest strike-rate on this surface and a poor recent record here having finished ninth on his only previous visit to Wolverhampton. He drops back from a mile to a trip where he has won four times from 22 starts yet his latest efforts have been patchy and he carries a recent 6lb penalty from a narrow win last time. Trainer Ruth Carr has a solid 10% strike-rate at the track while jockey William Pyle is operating at just 4% here.
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7Bossy Parker44/100
Bossy Parker is a limited horse who has been knocking on the door this year with three seconds and a win from his last six starts, shown by 325144. He has a solid record at Wolverhampton including three course wins from 18 runs and has also won at today's 7f trip. The yard holds a fair record here while Callum Shepherd is a regular rider at the track with a 12% strike-rate from over 800 rides. He tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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8Warrnambool41/100
Warrnambool is a limited performer who has shown only modest form on his four runs this year with figures of 54-046. He has a bit of placed form at today's trip and on standard ground but lacks real punch at this level. Trainer has a solid Wolverhampton record while the jockey is operating at a low strike-rate here. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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9She's Crafty39/100
She's Crafty is a limited filly who has shown some ability on this track, finishing second here on her penultimate start. She has been competitive on standard ground and at this trip without winning, though her recent form of 452850 has been patchy. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate at Wolverhampton while the jockey is operating at a 5% strike rate here. She is usually held up and produces her effort late.
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10Ashford Hill38/100
Ashford Hill is a limited performer who has failed to place in four runs at this track and looks up against it from stall 3. He has won twice on standard going and twice at this trip but the recent form of 863937 offers little encouragement. Trainer holds a modest 9% strike rate here while the 7lb claimer is still seeking her first course winner from eight rides. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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11Pink Diamond Girl38/100
Pink Diamond Girl has shown only modest form in six runs and looks limited on the balance of her ratings. She has failed to place in three starts at this track and steps up in trip today having achieved little over shorter with figures of -47790. The trainer is operating at a 0% strike rate from 26 runs here while the jockey has an 8% record from a large sample of rides. She is usually held up and produces her effort late.
KTB verdict
Distillation is the KTB Selection. He has already shown what he can do at this track and trip with a win from three runs here, and his record on standard ground is sound. The hold-up run-style aligns perfectly with the strong pace that is likely to unfold, and the combination of trainer and jockey has been profitable at the venue. His main dangers are the consistent Rovinia, who brings solid recent form and a hold-up style, and Based, who has course-and-distance form and first-time headgear to consider. Snooze Lane's course record cannot be ignored either in what remains a modest event overall.
KTB Selection Distillation
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 18 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Distillation | 11/1 | William Hill |
| Rovinia | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Based | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| King Cherry | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Snooze Lane | 17/2 | William Hill |
| King Sharja | 2/1 | William Hill |
| Bossy Parker | 11/1 | William Hill |
| Warrnambool | 14/1 | William Hill |
| She's Crafty | 22/1 | William Hill |
| Ashford Hill | 22/1 | Coral |
| Pink Diamond Girl | 30/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 5:10 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Wolverhampton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
King Cherry and Bossy Parker both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How many course wins does Snooze Lane have at Wolverhampton?
Snooze Lane has won here four times from 30 starts.
What is the expected benefit of the pace shape for hold-up horses?
The strong pace could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses such as Distillation, Rovinia, Based and Snooze Lane.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
Based is stepping back up from 6f with first-time headgear.
Which jockey has the strongest strike-rate at Wolverhampton among those riding principals?
Billy Loughnane has a 19% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 795 rides.
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