2:47 Perth
This is a Class 4 handicap hurdle at Perth over 2m4f35y on good ground with a field of 12. The pace shape is strong with high confidence, featuring two or more habitual front-runners that could cause the race to collapse late and favour hold-up types. The KTB Fit Scores identify Letterston Lily as the clear top horse on 73 while the remainder of the field clusters between 63 and 44, pointing to a race where course form, trip suitability and yard track records will be decisive.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with multiple front-runners setting a searching gallop from the outset. Timefortom, Bel Amigo and O'Faolains Glory are all habitual pace-makers while Hidden Fortune tends to race prominently, ensuring the early fractions will be genuine. This shape poses the key question of whether the leaders can sustain their effort or whether the race will fall apart in the latter stages, playing into the hands of the hold-up performers such as Letterston Lily, Dolly Dior and Boston Jury.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Letterston Lily KTB Selection73/100
Letterston Lily is a high-class performer who won this race last year on her only visit to Perth and has won three times at today's trip. She is 4-9 on good ground with six placings and the yard's 30% strike-rate at the track adds further strength. Recent form of 0/1-81 looks a bit patchy but the underlying figures and course record still command respect. The 6-year-old is held up with high-confidence run style, usually producing her effort late, which aligns perfectly with the expected strong pace that could collapse. Trainer Mickey Bowen and jockey James Bowen both boast strong Perth records (30% and 26% strike rates respectively) while her 4-9 record on good ground further bolsters her claims.
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2Hidden Fortune63/100
Hidden Fortune is a smart prospect who has won both starts this year after a promising second on debut. Steps up in trip today which asks a new question but the pedigree and progressive profile suggest it should cope. Dan Skelton and Harry Skelton have a strong record at Perth and the yard's 34% strike rate here adds plenty of confidence. The 5-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence, fitting the strong-pace shape. He is 2-3 on good ground with three placings and arrives in progressive form, though this is his first visit to the course.
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3Dolly Dior62/100
Dolly Dior is a smart performer who has already won over this trip and at this track. Recent form of 7-4121 shows strong current form including a win here last time, though she drops back from 3m today which asks a fresh question. Trainer strikes at 16% here from a solid sample while Brian Hughes has a good record at Perth. The 5-year-old is usually held up with medium-confidence run style, which could be advantageous if the strong pace collapses. She is 2-6 on good ground with three placings and has a 1-4 course record.
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4Boston Jury61/100
Boston Jury is a smart performer who arrives in modest recent form after a string of lesser efforts. Steps up in trip today having already won over this distance on his sole attempt, and he has shown he handles good ground. Trainer holds a solid record at Perth while the jockey is making his first appearance here. The 6-year-old is usually held up with medium-confidence run style and could benefit if the race falls apart late. His 1-7 record on good ground includes two placings though he has no course form.
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5Bel Amigo57/100
Bel Amigo is a smart performer who has been placed on both previous visits to Perth and has solid placed form on good ground. Drops back from 3m to a trip he has won over before, which looks a positive move. Trainer's modest 6% strike-rate here from a large sample is the main negative. The 7-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence and will help ensure the strong gallop. He is 2-4 on good ground with three placings and has a placed but winless course record from two starts.
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6Rauzan56/100
Rauzan is a smart performer who showed his best this season when winning a similar race at Worcester last time. Drops back in trip today which poses a fresh question though he has looked suited by further in recent runs. Trainer has a solid 15% strike-rate at Perth from 34 runs while the jockey also knows the track well. The 6-year-old is held up with high-confidence run style.
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7Frontier Prince54/100
Frontier Prince is a smart performer who has been consistent in stronger company than this, finishing in the frame on three of his last four completed starts. Steps up in trip today having looked all at sea over much shorter last time, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer has a solid 24% strike rate at Perth from a big sample. The 5-year-old is held up with high-confidence run style and drops in class.
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8Bold Light53/100
Bold Light is a smart performer with solid recent form but has never won or placed in four runs at Perth. Trainer's modest 8% strike-rate here from a big sample is another negative while the horse is only 1-9 at this trip. Going form on good ground is also unconvincing from a small sample. The 9-year-old is held up with high-confidence run style.
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9Summergrounds51/100
Summergrounds is a smart performer who has been a regular at this track and knows his way around it, finishing placed on three of his last five visits without winning. Recent form is solid rather than sparkling and he has only won once on good ground from 15 starts. Trip suits and the yard's respectable record here adds some confidence. The 10-year-old is held up with high-confidence run style.
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10Timefortom51/100
Timefortom is a smart performer who showed solid placed form over this trip on his first two starts before a poor run here on his latest outing. The yard has a modest 8% strike rate at Perth from a big sample of runners while Derek Fox is 0-11 at the track. Course form and trip experience both read negatively so far. The 6-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence.
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11Micks Jet45/100
Micks Jet is a smart performer who arrives off the back of three solid placed efforts before a break. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance and holds a respectable record on good ground. The trainer operates at a 7% strike rate from 67 runs at Perth. The 8-year-old is held up with high-confidence run style.
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12O'Faolains Glory44/100
O'Faolains Glory is a useful performer who has won at this trip and showed strong form earlier in the season. Has run twice here without placing and his latest effort was poor after a break. Trainer records a solid 12% strike rate at Perth while the jockey also has course experience. The 9-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence.
KTB verdict
Letterston Lily is the KTB Selection. She won this race last year on her only visit to Perth, boasts a strong record at the trip and on good ground, and is ideally suited by the strong pace that is likely to collapse late given her hold-up style. The yard and jockey both perform well at the track, lending further confidence. Main dangers are Hidden Fortune, who brings progressive form and strong Perth trainer/jockey statistics, and Dolly Dior, who is in good heart, has course form and could also relish the late stages if the pace tells.
KTB Selection Letterston Lily
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 23 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Letterston Lily | 3/1 | William Hill |
| Hidden Fortune | 9/4 | William Hill |
| Dolly Dior | 10/1 | William Hill |
| Boston Jury | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Bel Amigo | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Rauzan | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Frontier Prince | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Bold Light | 11/1 | William Hill |
| Summergrounds | 17/2 | William Hill |
| Timefortom | 16/1 | Midnite |
| Micks Jet | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| O'Faolains Glory | 40/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 2:47 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Perth results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse won this race last year?
Letterston Lily won this race last year on her only visit to Perth.
How many front-runners are there and what is the expected pace shape?
Two or more habitual front-runners; strong pace likely with high confidence that could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score?
Letterston Lily with a KTB Fit of 73/100.
Which horse drops back from 3m having won over today's trip before?
Bel Amigo drops back from 3m to a trip he has won over before.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Perth among those with a significant sample?
Dan Skelton has a 34% strike rate at Perth from 47 runs.
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