1:40 Listowel
The 1:40 at Listowel is a maiden hurdle over 2m2f on good ground with a field of 18, featuring several lightly raced types and debutants alongside horses with patchy recent form. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Down After Dark, Confidence Within and Man Down all rated in the mid-50s, indicating a race where unknowns dominate and data confidence is generally low. Trainer and jockey records at the track add further layers, with some yards and riders showing modest returns while others hold stronger figures from larger samples.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with medium confidence, suggesting a possible front-runner on thin evidence. Confidence Within tends to make the running or race prominently and looks the most likely to take the field along in a race where several principals prefer to be held up and produce their effort late. The key question is whether an even or steady gallop materialises, or whether the race develops into a sprint for the line given the number of hold-up performers and the overall lack of confirmed pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Down After Dark KTB Selection55/100
Down After Dark is a lightly raced four-year-old with only two starts and an unfinished record of U9. The small sample means very little is known about his ability or what he wants. The trainer has a modest 7% strike rate at Listowel from 29 runs while the jockey is 5% from 22 rides here. He is usually held up and produces his effort late though the evidence is limited and confidence is low. This remains very much an unknown quantity stepping out for the first time at 2m2f on good ground with no course form on record.
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2Confidence Within54/100
Confidence Within is lightly raced with only two runs to date so the form is hard to weigh up. A win on good ground reads as a positive on this surface yet the step up from 2m to 2m2f asks a fresh question. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate at Listowel from 227 runs while the jockey is operating at a strong 22% from 18 rides here. He tends to make the running or race on the pace though the evidence is limited and confidence is low. With recent form of 3-1 he holds a solid KTB Fit Score of 54 and could play a prominent role.
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3Man Down54/100
Man Down is lightly raced with a patchy recent record of P-4P06 and only two runs in the last year so there is very little solid form to go on. The trainer has a 7% strike rate from 14 runs at Listowel while the jockey is still seeking his first winner from 17 rides here. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with medium confidence in that assessment. Stepping up in trip for the first time today asks a fresh question of a horse whose going suitability also remains unknown from such a small sample. The combination of yard and rider has produced a 20% strike rate from ten runs with a positive A/E.
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4Midtown Manhattan51/100
Midtown Manhattan won his only start over 2m6½f. He now drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has a solid 15% strike rate from 282 runs at Listowel. He is usually held up and produces his effort late though the evidence is limited and confidence is low. With recent form of 1/9 and a KTB Fit Score of 51 he remains an interesting prospect despite the unknown distance.
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5Ddakji50/100
Ddakji has shown very little in three starts, finishing well beaten on each occasion including when last seen. He steps up in trip today having already tried this distance once without success, and the small sample makes it impossible to know if the longer distance or the good ground will suit. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with medium confidence in that assessment. With no course form and a trainer who has no recorded runners at Listowel, this remains very much an unknown quantity.
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6Woodie Wiley49/100
Woodie Wiley has shown very little in four starts to date with a recent form line of PS700. He drops back in trip today having failed to make the frame when tried at this distance previously. The small sample means both trainer and going remain unknown quantities here.
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7Reaching High48/100
Reaching High showed promise when runner-up last time and steps up in trip today as a fresh question. He has been competitive on good ground without winning and remains not fully exposed after 12 starts. Mullins has a 20% strike rate at Listowel from 774 runs while Townend is operating at 23% from 252 rides here.
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8Menez Are45/100
Menez Are is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The yard has a modest 6% strike rate at Listowel from a decent sample of runners while the jockey has shown a bit more with a 10% record from 40 rides here. Pedigree and sales information is the main guide but overall data confidence remains low.
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9Zambezi Moon45/100
Zambezi Moon has shown mixed form in three runs this year, finishing third on debut before a pulled-up effort and a subsequent win, but his two most recent starts resulted in fifth and sixth places. The drop back in trip to 2m2f today poses a fresh question. Trainer David Richard Barry has a 0% strike rate from five runs at Listowel while jockey J J Slevin operates at a 7% strike rate from 119 rides here.
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10Back Swath43/100
Back Swath has had just one run in the last year so the form picture is very thin and must be treated with caution. The yard's modest 3% strike rate from 30 runs at Listowel offers little encouragement, while the jockey has a 6% record from 71 rides here. Dropping back in trip to an untried 2m2f poses a fresh question for this lightly raced 7-year-old.
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11Ladbroke Grove42/100
Ladbroke Grove has only one run to his name, a third place over 2m last season, so he remains largely unexposed. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate from 56 runs at Listowel and the jockey's 11% from 217 rides add no real encouragement on a day when the data confidence is low.
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12Farney Bridge42/100
Farney Bridge has shown mixed form in three runs with a win on good ground but also a poor effort. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate from 20 runs at Listowel while the jockey has too small a sample to judge.
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13Outlaw Thief41/100
Outlaw Thief is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on and the yard has a modest 0% strike-rate from five runs at Listowel. The first-time headgear is an interesting move but adds another unknown on a good surface. Pedigree and sales background therefore carry most of the weight here.
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14Ozark Daze41/100
Ozark Daze has shown some ability on good ground, placing four times from ten starts, but remains winless after 24 career runs. The step up from 1m2½f to 2m2f today poses a fresh question while the trainer has yet to record a winner from seven runs at Listowel. The jockey's modest 3% strike rate from 34 rides at the track adds another note of caution.
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15Minnatrix41/100
Minnatrix has shown very little in five completed starts and was pulled up or well beaten on all four handicap attempts. The step up in trip raises a fresh question but the yard's modest 6% strike-rate at Listowel and the jockey's poor 2% record here offer little encouragement. Course experience is limited to one unplaced run.
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16Higher Vision40/100
Higher Vision is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The yard has a modest 3% strike rate at Listowel from 30 runs while the jockey is still seeking his first winner here from 31 rides. Pedigree and sales background offer the only clues but low data confidence means this is very much an unknown quantity.
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17Jetaway Mountain40/100
Jetaway Mountain has shown little so far with a recent sixth and one previous second from just two starts. The yard operates at a 5% strike rate from 57 runs at Listowel while Brian Hayes is on 6% from 109 rides here. Stepping up in trip is an unknown and with so little racecourse evidence overall this one is best watched.
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18Nothintodowithme38/100
Nothintodowithme has shown very little in three starts with a pulled-up effort and two distant finishes. The drop back to 2m2f is a question mark as the horse was already well beaten at a similar distance last time. Trainer is 0-5 at Listowel while the jockey has had only one ride here so both are hard to gauge on this lightly-raced maiden.
KTB verdict
Down After Dark is the KTB Selection in a race where so many runners carry significant unknowns. His modest Fit Score of 55 reflects the very limited evidence available yet he edges out the rest on the supplied numbers. The main dangers are headed by Confidence Within, whose win on good ground and strong jockey record at the track give him a solid profile, along with Man Down and the Henry de Bromhead-trained Midtown Manhattan who bring their own question marks over trip and form. Reaching High for Mullins and Townend cannot be entirely dismissed despite sitting just outside the top five on Fit.
KTB Selection Down After Dark
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 25 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Down After Dark | 100/1 | BetTom |
| Confidence Within | 11/2 | Dragon Bet |
| Man Down | 100/1 | BetTom |
| Midtown Manhattan | 7/1 | BetMGM |
| Ddakji | 60/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Woodie Wiley | 150/1 | BetMGM |
| Reaching High | 4/6 | Bet365 |
| Menez Are | 100/1 | BetTom |
| Zambezi Moon | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Back Swath | 150/1 | BetTom |
| Ladbroke Grove | 10/3 | Bet365 |
| Farney Bridge | 11/1 | BetMGM |
| Outlaw Thief | 100/1 | Bet365 |
| Ozark Daze | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Minnatrix | 100/1 | BetTom |
| Higher Vision | 50/1 | BetTom |
| Jetaway Mountain | 20/1 | BetMGM |
| Nothintodowithme | 150/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 1:40 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to make the running?
Confidence Within tends to make the running or race on the pace though the evidence is limited and confidence is low.
How many principals are held-up types?
Down After Dark, Man Down, Midtown Manhattan and Ddakji are all usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Listowel in this field?
W. P. Mullins has a 20% strike rate at Listowel from 774 runs.
Which runner has the most placed efforts on good ground without a win?
Ozark Daze has placed four times from ten starts on good ground but remains winless.
What is the KTB Fit Score of the selection?
Down After Dark has a KTB Fit Score of 55.
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