2:49 Ripon
This Class 4 5f handicap at Ripon on good ground brings together a field of 15, many of them fair performers with recent winning form. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Rock of England heading the list on 61, closely followed by Tiva on 59 and a pair on 58. Several runners have course-and-distance experience or proven ability at the minimum trip, but the strong pace anticipated is likely to play a significant role in how the race unfolds.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present and the pace shape rated strong with high confidence, the early gallop should be genuine. Accrual and Equity Law are both inclined to race on the pace or make it, while Our Absent Friends tends to go forward as well. That intensity is expected to test those up front and could cause the race to collapse late, favouring horses held up towards the rear such as Rock of England, Tiva and Kinetic Force.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Rock of England KTB Selection61/100
Rock of England is a fair handicapper who has run well at this track, winning two of his seven starts here. He has a solid record at this trip with five wins from 25 attempts and has also shown he handles good ground. The yard posts a 10% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 1.02 from 454 runs, while Jason Hart has a 14% strike rate at the course with an A/E of 0.96 from 339 rides. Trainer and jockey combined show 13 wins from 70 rides for a 19% strike rate and A/E of 1.38 with a healthy +£33.50 LSP. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited by the expected strong pace that could collapse. The wide draw in stall 13 is the main negative on a course where the far side often has the advantage.
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2Tiva59/100
Tiva is a fair performer who has won over this trip and on this ground. She has already scored at Ripon from just two runs there and arrives in solid form with a recent win on her record. The yard has a 15% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.98 from 795 runs, while the 5 lb claimer Conor Whiteley is a useful booking despite a 0% strike rate from three rides at Ripon. She has 3 wins from 11 starts on good ground with five places and won here once from two attempts. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, she is ideally placed to benefit if the strong pace collapses. Overall she looks to have plenty in her favour.
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3Our Absent Friends58/100
Our Absent Friends is a modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form is mixed but he has placed three times from his last six starts and holds a solid course record of one win from six runs. The trainer maintains a 21% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 1.4 from 14 runs, though the jockey is on 7% from 165 rides with an A/E of 0.67. He has only one win from 16 starts on good ground with six places. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he will be right up there early in a race where the pace is expected to be strong. Stepping up in class today, he remains a contender on his best days.
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4Kinetic Force58/100
Kinetic Force is a fair performer who has shown mixed results this year with a win and two places from his last five starts. He has already won at this trip and handles good ground, though his recent efforts have been in and out. The yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 1.08 from 376 runs, while Oisin Orr has a 16% strike rate at the course from 95 rides with an A/E of 0.95. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is another who should be suited by the strong pace that may collapse late. Lacking course form, he remains capable on his better days.
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5Accrual57/100
Accrual is a fair handicapper who has been in and out of form this year and arrives off a solid recent third. He has winning form over today's 5f trip on good ground with two wins from six starts and four places. The yard's healthy 12% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 1.08 from 376 runs adds some confidence, though the jockey is on 8% from 49 rides with an A/E of 0.74. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he will be prominent early in what is likely to be a strongly run race. Stall 15 is the main negative from a wide draw on a track where the far side often has the advantage.
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6Emerald Harmony56/100
Emerald Harmony is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent sequence of 123667. He has won three times at this trip and handles good ground, recording two wins and seven places from 16 starts on it. The trainer holds a 10% strike rate at Ripon from a big sample while this is the horse's first run here. Usually held up, he could be suited by the expected strong pace.
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7Angel Numbers55/100
Angel Numbers is a fair performer who has won both starts at this trip and made a winning debut over course and distance. She has shown mixed form this year but has two wins on good ground from eight attempts and looks suited by the conditions. The trainer holds a solid 12% strike rate at Ripon from a large sample. Usually held up, she has course-and-distance form in her favour.
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8Winchurch53/100
Winchurch is a fair performer who has been busy this year and mixes decent form with the occasional poor run. He has won five times at this trip from 23 attempts and showed he handles good ground with a win and a placing from four starts. The yard has an 11% strike rate at Ripon from 81 runs while this is his first visit to the track. Usually held up, he could get a good tow if the pace is strong.
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9Hiya Maite52/100
Hiya Maite is a fair performer who has been consistent at this level without winning for a while. He has a solid record at today's trip with six wins from 40 starts and has shown he handles good ground. The yard's modest 8% strike rate at Ripon from 103 runs suggests no obvious home advantage on his first visit here. Usually held up, he remains competitive at this level.
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10Equity Law52/100
Equity Law is a fair performer who has won twice this year and arrives in decent nick. Has placed once from two runs at Ripon and holds a solid record on good ground with five wins at this trip. Trainer's modest 10% strike-rate at the track from a huge sample is the main negative. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he will be in the thick of it early.
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11Mighty Magnus52/100
Mighty Magnus is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately and showed his best effort here when second over this trip last season. He acts on good ground and has a solid record at the minimum distance, though the wide draw in stall 12 will make things tougher today. Trainer Michael Dods has a modest 9% strike rate at Ripon from a large sample. Usually held up, he could finish well if the leaders fold.
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12Emperor Caradoc51/100
Emperor Caradoc is a modest performer who has been consistent enough to place on good ground six times from 15 starts and has won over this trip. He has shown some ability at Ripon with a third placed effort from three runs here though he has failed to win in 48 starts over the past year. The trainer holds a 10% strike rate at the track from 454 runs while jockey Paul Mulrennan is aboard. Usually held up, he needs the race to fall his way.
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13Mark's Choice49/100
Mark's Choice is a modest performer who has won seven times at Ripon from 25 starts and holds a solid record on good ground with six wins from 22 runs. Recent form of 243627 shows consistency without winning, and he has won at this trip though he is now a 10-year-old with 50 runs in the last year. Trainer Gemma Tutty has a 14% strike rate from 42 runs at the track while Oliver Stammers is aboard. Usually held up, his course record is the big plus.
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14Intervention43/100
Intervention is a modest 9-year-old who has won once from three runs at Ripon and is well drawn in stall 2. Dropping back to 5f today looks a logical move after his last run over 7½f, though he has managed only one placing from eight starts at the trip and is still winless on good ground from 12 attempts. Trainer Michael Appleby has an 11% strike rate here from 81 runs while jockey Andrew Mullen is 0 from 11 at the track. Usually held up, he has a bit to prove.
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15Canaria Queen42/100
Canaria Queen is a modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track from 13 runs here. Consistent enough this year with a string of placed efforts yet has failed to add to those victories in her last 33 starts at this distance. Trainer has a solid 10% strike-rate at Ripon from a huge sample while the jockey is 9% from 134 rides at the course. Usually held up, she remains capable of a place on her best form.
KTB verdict
Rock of England is the KTB Selection. A fair handicapper with two course wins from seven starts and a strong record at the trip, he is well suited by the strong pace that is likely to test those up front. The yard and jockey both have respectable records at Ripon, and his hold-up style should see him come home strongly if the leaders fold late. Main dangers are Tiva, who has already won at the track and arrives in form, and Our Absent Friends, who will go forward and has a solid course record. Kinetic Force and Accrual are others who can feature if the race sets up as expected.
KTB Selection Rock of England
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 26 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Rock of England | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Tiva | 9/2 | 7Bet |
| Our Absent Friends | 9/1 | William Hill |
| Kinetic Force | 11/1 | 7Bet |
| Accrual | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Emerald Harmony | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Angel Numbers | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Winchurch | 20/1 | 7Bet |
| Hiya Maite | 7/1 | 7Bet |
| Equity Law | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Mighty Magnus | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Emperor Caradoc | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Mark's Choice | 10/1 | 7Bet |
| Intervention | 15/2 | 7Bet |
| Canaria Queen | 14/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 2:49 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ripon results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Rock of England and Tiva, both usually held up and producing their effort late with high confidence, should be favoured if the strong pace collapses late.
What does the trainer and jockey combination for Rock of England show at Ripon?
Trainer Paul Midgley has a 10% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 1.02 from 454 runs, while Jason Hart has a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 0.96 from 339 rides; together they are 13/70 (19%) with an A/E of 1.38 and +£33.50 LSP.
How many course wins does Mark's Choice have at Ripon?
Mark's Choice has won here seven times from 25 starts.
Which runners are likely to set or contest the early pace?
Accrual, Equity Law and Our Absent Friends all tend to make the running or race on the pace.
What is the course record of Angel Numbers at Ripon?
Angel Numbers made a winning debut over course and distance and has won once from one start at the track.
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