2:45 Listowel
The John Lynch Memorial Maiden Hurdle at Listowel over 2m on good ground brings together a field of 14 largely unproven types, with the majority short on experience or hard form. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by a pair on 53, underlining how open the race appears on paper. With several debutants and lightly raced runners, the contest is likely to hinge on which horse can translate pedigree promise or modest placed form into a breakthrough performance at this venue.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that will be difficult for closers to overcome. Trubshaw is the one horse with a front-running profile and is likely to take up the running from the outset. Most of the field, including the selection Blue Johnl, prefer to be held up and produce their effort late, so the key question will be whether any of the closers possess the necessary finishing speed to reel in a clear leader on this good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Blue Johnl KTB Selection53/100
Blue Johnl arrives with the strongest recent evidence among the principals, having shown his best form when second last time out. He has already been placed at this trip, which should stand him in good stead back over 2m. The yard holds a 9% strike rate at Listowel from 178 runs with an A/E of 0.95, while the jockey's 7% strike rate from 121 rides here carries an A/E of 0.6. Although he has only two runs on good ground without a win or place and no previous course form, his overall profile marks him out as useful in this company. Held up in his races, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is expected to be a lonely lead up front.
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2Little An Often53/100
Little An Often makes his racecourse debut, so the form picture remains entirely blank and any judgement rests on pedigree, sales background and stable record. The yard posts an 11% strike rate at Listowel from 36 runs with an A/E of 1.07, figures slightly above expectation, while the claiming jockey Thomas O'Connor has a 15% strike rate from 13 rides here with an A/E of 1.3. By Elusive Pimpernel, he represents a sire with an 8% overall win rate from 3090 runners. With no course win on record and market interest likely to be guided by his breeding, he is one of the more interesting newcomers in a race that lacks depth.
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3Devine Genius50/100
Devine Genius has shown very little so far, with a recent form string of P0 and no wins or places from 11 starts. He was well beaten on his only run at Listowel and has failed to trouble the judge in seven runs on good ground. The trainer holds a solid 10% strike rate at the track from 39 runs with an A/E of 1.3, while the jockey operates at 9% from 35 rides with an A/E of 0.88. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he faces a stiff task in a maiden where others bring more potential to the table.
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4Trubshaw49/100
Trubshaw has some experience but looks modest on what he has shown, finishing ninth on his only visit to Listowel and without a win in his last ten starts on good ground. He drops back to 2m today having failed to trouble the judge in his one previous run at the trip. Henry de Bromhead holds a solid 15% strike rate here from 285 runs with an A/E of 0.95, while Darragh O'Keeffe is operating at 8% from 181 rides with an A/E of 0.68. With a front-running style and a 1-10 record on good ground that includes three placed efforts, he is set to take up the running in a race with a lone-leader shape.
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5Out West47/100
Out West has only one run in the last year, so the form picture is thin and any assessment must be cautious. The drop back to 2m is an unknown that could suit or not. Trainer Daniel O'Brien has no recorded runners at Listowel while jockey Kevin Healy boasts a solid 20% strike rate from his five rides here with an A/E of 1.1. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he remains short of solid evidence and will need to improve markedly on what little is known.
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6Local Resident44/100
Local Resident showed promise when runner-up on debut but that effort came over a slightly longer trip and the form has worked out only modestly. Dropping back to 2m asks a fresh question while the yard's modest 3% strike rate at Listowel from 39 runs offers little encouragement, though the jockey has a solid 10% record here from 42 rides.
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7Blues Street44/100
Blues Street has only one run to his name and showed little on debut. The drop back to 2m raises a fresh question while the small sample makes any firm judgement risky. Both trainer and jockey hold a 10% strike rate at Listowel from decent-sized samples.
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8Parisian Dream43/100
Parisian Dream is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues here but data confidence remains low. Ross O'Sullivan has a modest 7% strike rate from 68 runs at Listowel while Shane Markey is still seeking his first winner from five rides at the track.
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9The Two Mary's41/100
The Two Mary's has shown very little so far with a recent form string of FP-D0 from just two career starts. The yard records a modest 5% strike rate at Listowel from 219 runs while Harry Sexton is still seeking his first winner from 18 rides here. Dropping back to 2m today raises a fresh question.
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10Hidden Hurricane41/100
Hidden Hurricane is a debutant with no racecourse experience to go on. The yard has a 0% strike rate from seven runs at Listowel and the jockey is also 0% from 11 rides here, so the local record offers little encouragement. Assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
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11Lennora41/100
Lennora is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The trainer has yet to record a winner from five runs at Listowel while the jockey operates at a modest 8% strike rate here from 96 rides. Pedigree and sales background will carry most weight.
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12Je Suis Celebre41/100
Je Suis Celebre fell on latest start after showing modest form in previous runs. He drops back to 2m having failed to trouble the judge when tried at the trip before. The trainer strikes at 6% here from 207 runs while the jockey is 5% from 76 rides.
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13You Lift Me Up41/100
You Lift Me Up is lightly raced with just three runs and poor recent form of 070 so hard to be positive. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate from 231 runs at Listowel while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from 19 rides here. He drops back to 2m today having shown little at the trip or slightly further.
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14The Flying Rambler40/100
The Flying Rambler has shown very little in three starts to date and arrives here with a recent form line of 7-80. The yard records a modest 5% strike rate from 19 runs at Listowel while Jordan Gainford is operating at 4% from 70 rides here. Dropping back to an untried 2m trip poses a fresh question.
KTB verdict
Blue Johnl stands out as the KTB Selection on the back of his second last time out, which represents the best piece of recent form in the race. He has already been placed at this trip, the yard has a solid record at Listowel, and he shapes as the type to come forward again now. His held-up style should see him delivered late against what is likely to be an uncontested lead. The main dangers are the interesting newcomer Little An Often, whose yard and jockey both perform above expectation at the venue, and Trubshaw, who is expected to make the running and could prove hard to peg back if the race shape plays to his strengths.
KTB Selection Blue Johnl
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:24 UTC, 26 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Blue Johnl | 15/2 | BetTom |
| Little An Often | 22/1 | BetTom |
| Devine Genius | 100/1 | Bet365 |
| Trubshaw | 6/4 | Bet365 |
| Out West | 100/1 | Bet365 |
| Local Resident | 11/4 | Bet365 |
| Blues Street | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Parisian Dream | 16/1 | BetTom |
| The Two Mary's | 50/1 | BetTom |
| Hidden Hurricane | 40/1 | BetTom |
| Lennora | 66/1 | BetTom |
| Je Suis Celebre | 10/3 | BetTom |
| You Lift Me Up | 80/1 | William Hill |
| The Flying Rambler | 40/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Trubshaw, who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many runs has Blue Johnl had on good ground?
Two runs on good, no win or place.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Listowel with Little An Often?
11% strike rate at Listowel from 36 runs with an A/E of 1.07.
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at Listowel among the principals?
Kevin Healy with a 20% strike rate at Listowel from 5 rides.
How many of the field are debutants?
Four debutants: Little An Often, Parisian Dream, Hidden Hurricane and Lennora.
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