3:55 Listowel
The M.J. Carroll ARRO Handicap Hurdle at Listowel brings together a field of 16 for this 2m4f0y contest on good ground. It features several high-class performers with recent placed efforts or wins, though course form is mixed across the runners and the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. Watch The Weather heads the KTB Fit rankings on 62, just ahead of Avalo and Luck Between Us on 61, with the numbers pointing to a race where proven class, trip suitability and late-run ability could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners present, notably Luck Between Us and Livio, along with Tullyhill. This should ensure a genuine test that could see the pace collapse late, playing to the strengths of hold-up performers. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the race will fall into the hands of those producing their effort from off the pace, with several principals and field runners set to be held up.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Watch The Weather KTB Selection62/100
Watch The Weather is a high-class performer with a solid recent record of 205333 and strong backing from ratings and history. He has won three times at today's trip though his overall record on good ground reads just 1-17. Course form is poor, with three runs at Listowel yielding no win or place. The trainer has a 15% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.47 from 27 runs, while the jockey operates at 10% with an A/E of 0.95 from 42 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he drops back in distance after his latest run and is the KTB Selection.
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2Avalo61/100
Avalo is a high-class performer with a solid recent record including two placed efforts this season. He has already shown his liking for this track when finishing second on his only visit and his record on good ground reads 1-5 with three places. Dropping back to a trip he has won over before, he is another who is usually held up and produces his effort late. Both trainer and jockey have respectable strike rates at Listowel, the yard at 11% with an A/E of 0.95 from 109 runs and the rider at 12% with an A/E of 1 from 69 rides.
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3Luck Between Us61/100
Luck Between Us is a smart performer who arrives in excellent order with three wins from his last five starts. He drops back in trip to a distance he has won over before and boasts a solid record on good ground of 1-4 with three places. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate at Listowel from 16 runs with an A/E of 1.46, while the jockey is still seeking his first winner from 19 rides here with an A/E of 0. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he holds a leading chance if he can maintain his current momentum.
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4Stede Bonnet58/100
Stede Bonnet is a high-class performer with strong recent form including two placed efforts this season. He drops back to a trip where he has been placed twice from three starts though he has never won over it. The trainer holds a solid 13% strike rate at Listowel with an A/E of 0.88 from 332 runs, while the jockey has struck at a 20% rate from his small sample of five rides here with an A/E of 1.1. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he looks set to play a significant role.
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5Ifiwerearichman56/100
Ifiwerearichman is a high-class performer on his day but has been inconsistent of late and his recent form of 3P-368 suggests he is not at his peak. He has only run once at Listowel where he pulled up and the trainer's modest 8% strike-rate from 189 runs here adds a note of caution. Dropping back in trip to 2m4f poses a fresh question as he has failed to place in two previous attempts at the distance. Usually held up, the jockey has a 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.49 from 40 rides.
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6Tullyhill55/100
Tullyhill is a high-class performer with a solid career record yet remains not fully exposed after 14 runs. He steps up in trip today having shown little on his one previous attempt at this distance and has only one run on good ground which produced no win or place. Both trainer and jockey have very limited data at Listowel so their local effectiveness remains unproven. Tending to make the running or race on the pace.
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7Young Churchill55/100
Young Churchill is a smart performer who has run well at this track before, finishing second on his only visit. He steps up in trip today having shown his best form over shorter, which asks a fresh question, while his record on good ground is modest with just one win from nine starts. The trainer and jockey both have solid records at Listowel. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
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8Londonofficecallin54/100
Londonofficecallin is a high-class performer who arrives in solid form after a win last time and has a good record on good ground with four wins from twelve starts. He drops back in trip to 2m4f having won twice at the distance in the past though his sole run here resulted in a modest seventh. Trainer Gavin Cromwell has a 10% strike rate from 220 runs at Listowel while jockey Mark Walsh is on 11% from 219 rides at the track. Usually held up.
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9Livio54/100
Livio is a high-class performer who has shown smart form in three starts, winning on debut and finishing a solid third in a strong race last time. He steps up in trip today having already placed at this distance, and the good ground looks ideal given his sole run on it produced a win. Mullins has a 19% strike rate at Listowel from 780 runs while Townend is operating at 23% from 253 rides here. Tending to make the running or race on the pace.
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10Feud53/100
Feud is a high-class performer with strong course connections having won here from two starts. He steps up in trip today having failed to score in two previous tries at this distance and his recent form has been patchy. The yard has a modest 3% strike rate at Listowel while the jockey is operating at 8%. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
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11Sageborough52/100
Sageborough is a high-class performer with a solid recent win and strong ratings backing. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 189 runs at Listowel while the jockey is on 7% from 229 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
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12Give Him A Chance49/100
Give Him A Chance is a smart performer who has already placed here over this trip and handles good ground well with two wins from three starts. Recent form is a bit mixed yet the overall ratings and course connection give him a solid platform. Trainer operates at a modest 6% strike rate at Listowel while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from 19 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
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13Sequoiaspirit48/100
Sequoiaspirit is a high-class performer with strong ratings and history behind him. He has placed twice from four runs at Listowel yet remains winless here, while the trainer's modest 3% strike-rate at the track and the jockey's blank record from 32 rides add clear negatives. He steps up in trip today having won over this distance before, though his record on good ground is ordinary with just two wins from twenty starts. Typically settles in midfield.
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14Elusive Ogie48/100
Elusive Ogie is a smart performer who has already shown his liking for this track when finishing a solid third here last season. He drops back to a trip he has won over and boasts a good record on this ground. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Listowel. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
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15Matt Connor46/100
Matt Connor is a high-class performer on his day with a solid recent record that includes two wins this year. He steps up in trip today having been campaigned mostly around two miles and his only previous try at this distance brought no joy. Trainer and jockey both operate at a modest strike rate here at Listowel. Usually held up.
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16Serienmond41/100
Serienmond is a smart performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He has shown competitive form on good ground and is dropping back to a trip where he has placed twice without winning. The yard has had too few runners here to judge while the jockey is still seeking his first Listowel winner from 22 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
KTB verdict
Watch The Weather is the KTB Selection. His high-class ability, solid recent record and three previous wins at this trip give him a strong platform despite modest course form and a relatively poor strike rate on good ground. The strong pace should suit his hold-up style as the race is likely to collapse late. Main dangers include Avalo, who has already placed at the track, and Luck Between Us, who arrives in excellent order and will make the running.
KTB Selection Watch The Weather
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 26 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Watch The Weather | 12/1 | BetTom |
| Avalo | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Luck Between Us | 9/1 | Bet Victor |
| Stede Bonnet | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Ifiwerearichman | 10/1 | Bet Victor |
| Tullyhill | 40/1 | BetTom |
| Young Churchill | 40/1 | BetTom |
| Londonofficecallin | 9/1 | Bet Victor |
| Livio | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Feud | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Sageborough | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Give Him A Chance | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Sequoiaspirit | 22/1 | BetTom |
| Elusive Ogie | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Matt Connor | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Serienmond | 9/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 3:55 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the KTB Selection and what is its Fit Score?
Watch The Weather is the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 62.
How many front-runners are likely to ensure a strong pace?
Two or more habitual front-runners are present, making a strong pace likely.
Which principals are usually held up and may benefit from the expected pace collapse?
Watch The Weather, Avalo, Stede Bonnet and Ifiwerearichman are all usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which runner has the strongest trainer strike rate at Listowel among the principals?
Stede Bonnet's trainer has a 13% strike rate at Listowel from 332 runs.
Which horse has placed at Listowel without winning and steps up in trip?
Sequoiaspirit has placed twice from four runs at Listowel yet remains winless here and steps up in trip.
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